Cocoa Futures Surge Past 6500 as Supply Fears Mount for the 2026/27 Crop

Cocoa futures have rallied aggressively over the past week, breaking above the 6500 area (Daily level 3) as the market re-prices a rapidly shrinking 2026/27 surplus forecast amid intensifying El Niño risk and deteriorating West African crop prospects. The advance follows a multi month recovery from the February 2026 low near 3000, with buyers repeatedly defending key levels along the way. Looking ahead, the 6500 area (Daily level 3) stands as the pivotal level for the coming weeks, with a break and hold above it opening the door toward 7250 (Daily level 2) and potentially 8050 area (consolidation block 1 mid), while failure to sustain above it risks a return to 5700 (range mid 2) and 5000 area (Daily level 4).Espresso machine dripping into container by Boyloso via iStock