Recommendations

07/02/2025
Strategy Idea...Bullish Coffee Option Spread
Coffee futures tend to move $1.00 at a time, then reassess. We are nearing that point as we approach what is generally the seasonal low. By mid-July, the weather premium priced into the market in anticipation of adverse weather in Brazil is completely removed, and the market resets. That reset is often an inflection point that can be described as a harvest low. Further, prices slid below the trendline this morning and are poised to close above it. We are taking this as a sign of exhaustion. We like playing the upside, but doing so requires a high tolerance for risk. Coffee has been coffee'ing, but the trendline and seasonals will be supportive.
06/26/2025
Strategy Idea...Get back into wheat.
According to the COT Report, large speculators are holding roughly the largest net short position ever in wheat. This massive position looks and feels complacent with wheat futures near trendline support and the lowest prices we have seen in years. If you took profits in wheat last week, put this trade back on; if you passed, reconsider.
06/26/2025
Strategy Idea...Summer copper rallies often fail.
Bullish sentiment and trader positioning appear to be oversaturated. Today's massive rally lacks fundamental reasoning but is likely a result of a contract expiration short squeeze. It seems like a good opportunity to use the market's money to buy a put spread. This isn't the time of year to be buying copper, but many are. We think that is a mistake.
06/26/2025
Strategy Idea...Another bullish nat gas spread.
If you don't like the idea of unlimited risk, a September $4.50 call is less than $900 but this would require a very large move to pay off. Another approach would be to buy mini or micro futures with the intention of adding if we slip closer to $3.00. Nat gas generally bottoms in July, but we think the trendline likely holds.
06/25/2025
Strategy Idea...Bearish Euro Option Play
Currencies are among the most trending asset classes. Once the markets pick a direction, it is difficult to turn the ship around. However, the recent dollar collapse, which enabled the euro to soar, was largely the result of political uncertainty. Specifically, tariff dysfunction and what was later deemed the "sell America trade" involving the liquidation of US assets by overseas investors to repatriate the funds to their home country, or a non-US alternative. Lower interest rates and slower growth back the euro, it shouldn't rally.
06/18/2025
Strategy Idea...Let's add to October sugar (or enter if you aren't already in).
We suggested buying October sugar calls a few weeks ago using the 18.25 strike. Those are obviously underwater, but we haven't given up on the idea. Despite recent weakness, we believe the probabilities are in favor of a reversal. The idea would be to add onto the trade with a lower strike; if prices rally, we can take profits on the added contract and hold the original. If not, our risk on both is limited to the cost of entry. If you didn't participate in the previous recommendation, even better. This option has 90 days to expiration and is only a few ticks out of the money for less than $800! Sugar futures have collapsed in recent weeks, but seasonality is bullish, and the final trendline is supportive.

Newsletters

07/01/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...The market is giving you a Mulligan.
If you were uncomfortable with the paper losses that occurred in your investment portfolio in post- “Liberation Day” trade, now is your chance to do things differently. It isn’t often that we are given Mulligans in life, particularly so quickly after the undesirable event, but that is precisely what we are being presented with. The market is giving you a Mulligan: This is your chance to manage risk better than you did in early 2025.
06/27/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...There is a wealth shift that nobody is talking about.
Although the average investor doesn’t view markets in this way, for every transaction, there is a winner and a loser; we refer to this as a zero-sum game. This is because once a financial transaction is complete, the instrument traded either increases or decreases in value, leaving one party better off and the other worse off. Warren Buffett famously stated, “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.” This is, and always will be, a true statement. There is a wealth shift that nobody is talking about.
06/23/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Bombs dropped, so did oil. Are precious metals next?
A muted response by the oil and precious metals markets to last weekend’s events may seem surprising at first, but this is a common occurrence. Markets are forward-looking and habitually suffer from buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action. Bombs dropped, so did oil. Are precious metals next?
06/12/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Greed is overlooking a Rare Opportunity in Risk-Off Assets.
Five, or even ten, years ago, if you had asked someone if they would accept 4.5% annually relatively risk-free (if held to expiration) for the next decade or longer, the response would have likely been skepticism. Greed is overlooking a Rare Opportunity in Risk-Off Assets.
06/12/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Will the corn market repeat 2014? If so, $3.50 is on tap.
The monthly corn futures chart bears an eerie resemblance to the 2014 chart; this isn’t a good sign for bulls. In 2014, the market was coming off a wild inflationary cycle, during which corn prices were in the $ 8.00-per-bushel range. The selling finally dried up near $4.00 before rallying about $1.00. By May 2014, the market had begun to soften; by September, the harvest lows reached close to $3.30. Unless something surprises the market in the next week or two, it will be difficult for prices to find a different path this time around. Will the corn market repeat 2014? If so, $3.50 is on tap.
05/28/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...We’ve noticed some overcrowded trades in the ag sector.
Being a contrarian thinker is both an asset and a curse. Socially, it can be a hindrance to fitting in with the masses. This mindset prevents us from enjoying the ride when things are going well and lures us into strong opinions too early. But on the bright side, being skeptical of consensus thinking in markets might keep us from getting slaughtered with the herd. We’ve noticed some overcrowded trades in the ag sector.

Futures Chart Analysis

DX ~ Weekly
ES ~ Weekly
Crude Oil ~ Daily
Egg Prices

DeCarley Press

06/25/2025
Carley Garner on CyberTrading University
Carley had the opportunity to discuss her commodity market background and the futures and options brokerage business with @cybertradingu. Topics covered include stock indices, crude oil, precious metals, and other financial assets.
06/20/2025
Silver is not for the feint of heart...or even most traders.
I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today. I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today.
05/28/2025
If crude oil bottoms, it will be because of an unforeseen catalyst.
Carley Garner joined Alex Coffey of the Schwab Network to share her views on the oil market, which she doesn't find bullish. Without an OPEC put in place, and demand waning, oil prices could fall under $50.00 per barrel. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP.
05/23/2025
WATCH COW GUY CLOSE WITH SCOTT SHELLADY ON RFD-TV WEEKDAYS AT 1:30 TO 2:30 EST
If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.! If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.!
05/23/2025
Carley and Dale Pinkert of FACE analyzed crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, and others.
Carley Garner shared her chart analysis on popular financial and commodity markets such as crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, Treasuries, stock indices, and the US dollar index. CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Live Economic News/Data

07/03/2025
House narrowly passes Trump's megabill in major victory for Republicans
President Donald Trump worked the phones late into the night to help House Republican leadership deliver his second-term policy agenda.
07/03/2025
Top five tax changes for the wealthy in Trump's 'big beautiful bill'
Taxpayers earning $1 million or more are expected to see a boost in after-tax income of about 3% under Trump's megabill.
07/04/2025
Jane Street barred from Indian markets as regulator freezes $566 million over Nifty 50 manipulation claims
The U.S. trading firm's entities are "further prohibited from buying, selling or otherwise dealing in securities, directly or indirectly."

Notices

06/16/2025
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the US Futures Markets will be closed on Thursday, the 19th, in observation of Juneteenth. For all intents and purposes, the US Futures Markets will be closed on Thursday, the 19th, in observation of Juneteenth.
06/02/2025
DeCarley Trading will be out of the office for most of tomorrow.
DeCarley Trading will not be in the office tomorrow morning, but will return late afternoon. We apologize for the late notice and any inconvenience this may have caused.
05/23/2025
Memorial Day Holiday Trading Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the US Futures Markets will be closed on Monday, the 26th, for Memorial Day.

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 07/03/2025
August Lean Hogs were reluctant to follow through on Wednesday's reversal higher. 7/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 07/03/2025
December Corn finished the holiday shortened week higher. 7/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 07/03/2025
How might the FOMC minutes and tariff deadlines move markets next week? 7/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 07/03/2025
How might the FOMC minutes and tariff deadlines move markets next week? 7/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 07/02/2025
Soybeans Up: Plantings are down 4% year-over-year. 7/2/25
CME Group
Posted on 07/02/2025
Imports from Mexico resume. 7/2/25
CME Group