Recommendations

04/23/2024
Strategy Idea...Aggressive Bullish August Gold Spread
The gold market took off without many bulls a few months ago. We continue to believe this market is somewhat replaying that of the 2011 gold market. If so, significant dips are opportunities for the bulls to reload or sidelined bulls to get something off without chasing prices. Last week, we suggested a call ladder as a way to get in without downside risk because we know big breaks such as this are a part of the game. Thus, this trade is a nice add-on to that strategy in that it shifts the upside risk higher (assuming both spreads are held simultaneously) in exchange for accepting some downside risk (which is more comfortable with prices much lower). If you don't have any gold on and would like some, this is worth a look assuming you have plenty of margin available (in case things get hairy) and have the risk tolerance (gold isn't for everyone).
04/18/2024
Strategy Idea...Call option ladders in August Gold
The gold market took off while few were watching. We suspect there are a lot of people waiting for a dip that might not come. However, we've seen what happens to traders chasing gold higher; it works about once or twice per decade but is otherwise a miserable strategy. We don't think the gold run is over, but the downside risk is substantial. Here is a way to play that.
04/18/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish oil option spreads.
For those on the sidelines wishing they were in on the oil rally, this might be a chance to get long without chasing higher prices. We've seen oil break several dollars from recent highs despite tension overseas. Trendline support was tested successfully this morning, and we continue to operate under the premise that $100.00 oil is possible. Buy the dip in crude oil?
04/16/2024
Strategy Idea...Sugar call options.
In 2020, following the government-mandated COVID shutdowns, sugar bottomed just under 10 cents. Thus, today's prices are nearly 20 cents, which isn't historically cheap. Yet, we've been as high as 28 cents in late 2023, and other softs, such as cocoa and coffee, are trading at unfathomably elevated prices, which might pull sugar out of the hole. It seems to be worth having a long call option in place to capture a potential rally from here. Sugar might be a sweet "buy"
04/09/2024
Strategy Idea...July Copper Butterflies.
According to MRCI, copper futures have traded lower (10 cents on average) from April 14th through May 15th in 12 of the last 15 years. With the market overbought and a CPI report due in the morning, we think it makes sense to start thinking about the possibility of a seasonal pullback. That said, keeping risk low and limited is ideal, given the widespread dysfunction in many financial and commodity markets. Copper probably can't continue at this pace.
04/08/2024
Strategy Idea...July lean hog risk reversals.
The lean hog market has put together an impressive rally in the face of struggling cattle prices. The fundamental backdrop is supportive: a firm cash market, good demand, and fewer hogs. This time of year can produce large hog sell-offs; here is how to get a foot in the door.

Newsletters

04/17/2024
The ES can't hold a bid, this correction isn't over.
The aggressive stimulus and liquidity injection of 2020 have left us with an environment of aggressive speculation in which market participants chase prices higher without regard to risk. Just like too many dollars chasing too few goods caused inflation, assets have increased in value as too many investment dollars make their way into a handful of assets. The US stock market has always increased steadily over time, but the slope of gains forged in recent years is unnatural. Further, higher interest rates have created competition for investment dollars; Treasury buyers are paid 4.5% to 5.0% interest to wait for the next shoe to drop, at which time they could benefit from price appreciation. Warren Buffet referred to this market cycle as a casino; I live in Vegas and know the house always wins. In the big picture, stocks are expensive, and bonds are cheap.
04/05/2024
The S&P 500 has broken some bullish patterns.
The equity market has outperformed the most bullish projections, but it has also had some help. It is difficult to justify current valuations with fundamentals; although the economy performs well on most metrics, corporate earnings are overpriced. We've noticed similar dysfunction in some commodities;the most glaring example is cocoa. If the trend changes, there will be signs.
04/04/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Crude oil has Rallied without the Help of Speculators or Chinese Demand.
The oil market has quietly assembled an impressive $15.00 per barrel rally. The lack of fanfare can likely be attributed to the lack of volatility. There were days in 2022 when oil jumped or collapsed from $10.00 to $15.00 in a single trading session, yet the run from $70.00 to $85.00 took about three months. These slow grinding rallies are generally not to be sold into (been there and done that, don't do it). Crude oil has Rallied without the Help of Speculators or Chinese Demand
03/28/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Cocoa futures have gone mainstream.
Since the early 1980s, cocoa has been arguably the most boring commodity; until now, the price of cocoa hovered between $1,500 and $3,000 per ton, with only a few temporary breaches of this range. More recently, cocoa futures spent a decade mostly trading between $2,000 and $3,000. Thus, the market was well overdue for a supply scare. However, even the most bullish of bulls probably didn’t see $10,000 cocoa on the horizon. I have some strong and controversial opinions on the matter. Cocoa futures have gone mainstream.
03/19/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Nothing lasts forever, not even the bear market in the Yen.
The Japanese Yen has been in a prolonged bear market. Seventeen years of wildly dovish Bank of Japan monetary policy has resulted in a thirteen-year bear market in the country’s currency. For the first time in almost two decades, the BOJ has taken steps toward normalizing interest rates by increasing its target short-term rate to .1%. Nothing lasts forever, not even the bear market in the Yen.
03/06/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...We don't think gold is bull trapping.
Precious metals habitually spend years in a trading range only to forge large and explosive rallies when market participants least expect it. As a result, sidelined traders wishing they were in the market are susceptible to FOMO buying, forcing prices to levels that previously seemed out of reach. We believe gold is finally really to make such a move. While the world has been focused on Bitcoin and Nvidia stock, gold has reached a fresh all-time high! We don't think gold is bull trapping.

Futures Chart Analysis

NQ~Monthly
ES~Weekly S&P 500
ZN vs ES ~ Monthly
ZW ~ Monthly (Bitcoin Comparison)

DeCarley Press

04/05/2024
Talking oil and gold on Schwab Network
Crude oil futures are overstretched, but the big picture is probably higher for longer. Carley discussed this and the gold breakout on Schwab Network. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
03/27/2024
What happens if oil breaks above $84.00?
Futures and options broker Carley Garner joined Nicole Petallides on the Schwab network to discuss the implications of a break above $84.00 in the front-month futures contract. Seasonality is supportive of the oil rally, and momentum above $84.00 could lead to prices in the vicinity of $100. Click Here to Watch the Video
02/02/2024
Crude oil, gold, currencies, and more on the Schwab Network
Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis. Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis.
01/31/2024
Will crude oil see $100 again?
Analysts are making bold bearish calls in crude oil, but futures broker, Carley Garner, has a differing opinion. Scott Shellady and Carley talked about it on the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE SEGMENT
01/16/2024
Are the stars aligning for the crude oil bulls? They appear to be.
The last four out of five times crude oil has tested the weekly trendline in the first quarter with Williams %R and Slow Stochastics oversold, the market has rallied sharply. The only exception to this was the COVID-19 shutdown energy fallout. If you missed my Schwab Network hit this morning, here is a link to the archive - https://decarleytrading.com/learn-to-trade-commodities/982-are-the-stars-aligning-for-crude-oil-bulls-carley-talked-about-it-on-schwab-network

Notices

04/25/2024
IMPORTANT INFO REGARDING THE MIGRATION TO MY.STONEX.COM
ALL CLIENTS WILL BE MOVED FROM THE LEGACY MYACCOUNT.GAINFUTURES.COM TO THE MY.STONEX.COM PORTAL OVER THE WEEKEND
03/28/2024
Good Friday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Friday, March 29th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office tomorrow but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
02/13/2024
1099s are available in the Gain Reports Portal and the Zaner360
You can now download your 2023 1099 reports when logged into the Zaner360 platform by going to "Reports", then "Statements", then "1099s".

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

04/26/2024
Intel used to dominate the U.S. chip industry. Now it's struggling to stay relevant
Intel has missed most of the significant technology transitions over the past 15-plus years, losing its standing in the chip industry along the way.
04/26/2024
Federal regulator finds Tesla Autopilot has 'critical safety gap' linked to hundreds of collisions
Federal authorities say a "critical safety gap" in Tesla's Autopilot system contributed to at least 467 collisions, 13 resulting in fatalities.
04/26/2024
Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected
The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 2.7% from a year ago in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

Futures Market News

Posted on 04/25/2024
Stocks down as growth, inflation concerns resurface; 4/25/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2024
10-Year yield hits 2024 high, 4/25/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2024
Lean hogs give up early-week gains, 4/25/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2024
Soybeans close slightly lower on Thursday, 4/25/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2024
Natural Gas futures sink 7.1% over 6 sessions, 4/25/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2024
Copper hits new 2024 high, 4/25/24
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.