Recommendations

10/22/2026
Strategy Idea...Bearish Cattle Play
The livestock market, excluding hogs, has benefited from a bloodbath in the grain market, sharply low interest rates in recent sessions, and seasonal tailwinds. However, seasonal tendencies usually become a headwind in late October or early November. Further, the corn selling might have capitulated yesterday (at least for now). A corn bounce would likely make cattle longs think twice about their holdings. Accordingly, we think it is time to take a stab at the downside in live cattle. We wrote about this in yesterday's DeCarley Perspective; click here to review. Cattle futures are likely to struggle over the next month or so.
10/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Quick oil and gold updates.
Much has changed in gold and oil, yet nothing has. We wanted to provide updated charts and comments for those trading and tracking these markets. Much has changed in gold and oil, yet nothing has. We wanted to provide updated charts and comments for those trading and tracking these markets.
10/15/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Corn futures were rocked by WASDE- now what?
Last Friday, the grain markets were rocked by a surprise WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report issued by the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture). On October 9th, the markets learned the USDA had revised its corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, up from 178.5 last month and below the recognized trendline yield of 183 Corn futures were rocked by WASDE- now what?
10/12/2026
Strategy Idea...Quick Corn Play
The latest USDA WASDE and crop production reports surprised the corn market on Friday with a much larger yield and crop outlook. However, half of the country doesn't believe the USDA's numbers, which could lure dip buyers this week. You might recall that the bulk of the late-summer corn rally followed the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which penciled in surprisingly low yields. Reality may be somewhere in the middle. Corn tends to rise more than it falls over the next two weeks.
10/06/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy Sugar Puts for Seasonal Play
Strategy Idea...Buy Sugar Puts for Seasonal Play
10/02/2026
Strategy Idea...Long-dated Yen Calls just in case.
The Treasury market rout has been stunning. While there are many reasons for the selling in bonds and notes, perhaps one of them is the liquidation by Japan to raise cash for another Yentervention. Japan has conducted two official interventions and one unofficial intervention to turn the tide on the yen (or, more specifically, the yen carry trade that has flooded the world with excess liquidity). Prior to each of those interventions, the Treasury market suffered a significant decline. Further, the last intervention involved US support in which the US Treasury sold euros to purchase Yen. This week, we have seen significant weakness in the euro, which may or may not be related to preparation for a currency market manipulation. We like the idea of buying March 6700 calls just in case something is brewing. We've seen this movie before

Newsletters

10/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Livestock futures are high on grain fumes.
If you are trading cattle, you are trading corn. Over the last 30 trading days, live cattle futures have settled in the opposite direction of corn futures 79% of the time. In last week’s newsletter, we noted that speculator liquidation in corn could bring prices toward $4.60 or below. If you are trading cattle, you are trading corn. Over the last 30 trading days, live cattle futures have settled in the opposite direction of corn futures 79% of the time. In last week’s newsletter, we noted that speculator liquidation in corn could bring prices toward $4.60 or below.
10/08/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Everything you need to know about Single Stock Futures.
We are fielding quite a few inquiries about the newly listed single-stock futures. Because of limited liquidity, we can't currently trade these products via StoneX or other FCMs we clear through. But we hope that will change, and we want clients to understand why, and what needs to happen, for these products to be tradeable. Everything you need to know about Single Stock Futures.
10/05/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Same newsletter, more charts and comments.
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=199b79d4-c0e9-11f1-9660-55f2a66b3dcf&pt=campaign&t=1791224779&s=6d07a53aefa1aa490e66c9bc168422596266c4fb628461c2181c50e6b4106fea Same newsletter, more charts (we took a mulligan). Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
09/30/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
We’ve been bearish on gold for quite some time and remain bearish overall. But the stars are aligning for what has generally been a high-probability setup for a relief rally, and we cannot ignore it. For starters, according to our friends at MRCI (a seasonal trading service), going long December gold on or about September 29 and holding through October 25 has been profitable in 12 of the last 15 years. Obviously, this is a tendency, not a guarantee, but the Indian festival and wedding season, combined with China’s Golden Week celebration, tends to boost the metal. Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
09/24/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Stock investors don’t give the US dollar enough fanfare.
In my view, the sluggish US dollar hasn’t gotten enough credit for asset booms. It sounds smarter to attribute stronger stock performance to fundamentals (balance sheets, product development, etc.), but there is always an elephant in the room that is generally ignored. That elephant is the US dollar. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is going higher, he will say earnings per share and product ingenuity, but he won’t mention that a weaker dollar has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. The US dollar doesn’t get enough fanfare from stock investors.
09/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Diesel prices are the talk of the town. Farm/business hedge?
The world went from talking about oil to talking about diesel. Ultimately, our lives run on diesel fuel, not oil. Diesel, a refined product of crude oil, generally offers higher torque at a lower price than traditional gasoline. Accordingly, it is used in farm equipment and shipping vehicles (trucks, ships, and trains). Diesel prices are the talk of the town. Farm/business hedge?

Futures Chart Analysis

10-Year Note ~ Monthly
Gold ~ Daily
10-Year-Note ~ Monthly
Crude Oil ~ Weekly

Carley Garner X Feed

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October 22, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Gold pays nothing while you wait, and Treasuries pay 5%. @carleygarner says that lets you be wrong by 5% a year and still break even, which is why rising yields make gold heavier. Full episode: More at:
Gold pays nothing while you wait, and Treasuries pay 5%. @carleygarner says that lets you be wrong by 5% a year and still break even, which is why rising yields make gold heavier.Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=YJJCTl6M…More at: johnsonrandall.com/ Video— @jaredjjohnson Oct 22, 2026
@ @jaredjjohnson
October 21, 2026
USDA's new cash cattle reporting adds transparency to a thin market, and that could ease volatility. Diesel relief for farmers? I support it, but it's one more incentive to plant corn. No wonder $5 corn won't stick. Cow Guy Close w/ Scott Shellady:
USDA's new cash cattle reporting adds transparency to a thin market, and that could ease volatility. Diesel relief for farmers? I support it, but it's one more incentive to plant corn. No wonder $5 corn won't stick. Cow Guy Close w/ Scott Shellady: youtu.be/beZb8QrRO9c— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carley
@ @carleygarner
October 21, 2026
We wrote about the cattle market today in our client newsletters for DeCarley Trading brokerage and on Substack. I don't think I need to remind anyone how the rug was pulled out from under the livestock market in late October last year. Charts, volatility, and seasonality suggest producers should be looking to protect these prices, and speculators should be able to get comfortable bearish plays off. #livestock #livecattle #cattle #ags #aghedge
We wrote about the cattle market today in our client newsletters for DeCarley Trading brokerage and on Substack. I don't think I need to remind anyone how the rug was pulled out from under the livestock market in late October last year. Charts, volatility, and seasonality suggest producers should be
@ @carleygarner
October 21, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: 🚨 Market Reaction : US Personnel Departure
🚨 Market Reaction : US Personnel Departure— @chris_brueck Oct 21, 2026
@ @chris_brueck
October 21, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: President Trump is rolling out $8 billion in farm aid to help offset diesel costs. Will it be enough to give farmers relief this harvest season? @carleygarner sits down with @sws9876 to give us her thoughts. 🔗
President Trump is rolling out $8 billion in farm aid to help offset diesel costs. Will it be enough to give farmers relief this harvest season? @carleygarner sits down with @sws9876 to give us her thoughts.🔗 cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/Sr…— @CowGuyClose Oct 21, 2026
@ @CowGuyClose
October 21, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: It's getting colder...but guess where it's warm? Well, hopefully Sarasota, FL this December. 😂Come see @carleygarner , myself and many other awesome speakers @MoneyShow ! Click here to register Please let me know if your'e attending because I'd love to meet up! @RealMikeLarson @QueenOfFibs
It's getting colder...but guess where it's warm? Well, hopefully Sarasota, FL this December. 😂Come see @carleygarner , myself and many other awesome speakers @MoneyShow ! Click here to register sarasotaims.com/registration… Please let me know if your'e attending because I'd love to meet up! @Rea
@ @TraderTammy1
October 21, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Buying oil to hold for 10 years misreads the market. @carleygarner has seen it go from $150 to $30 within months, more than once, and expects a bust after six months of boom. Full episode: More at:
Buying oil to hold for 10 years misreads the market. @carleygarner has seen it go from $150 to $30 within months, more than once, and expects a bust after six months of boom.Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=YJJCTl6M…More at: johnsonrandall.com/ Video— @jaredjjohnson Oct 21, 2026
@ @jaredjjohnson
October 21, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Buckle up baby! We have Kenny Polcari, Jason Katz, Carley Garner, Ray Wang and Tommy Grisafi. Tune in to The Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV daily from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @KennyPolcari @JasonKatzUBS @carleygarner @rwang0 @AgBullMedia @AshleePitzl @OfficialRFDTV @CowGuyClose
Buckle up baby! We have Kenny Polcari, Jason Katz, Carley Garner, Ray Wang and Tommy Grisafi. Tune in to The Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV daily from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @KennyPolcari@JasonKatzUBS@carleygarner@rwang0@AgBullMedia@AshleePitzl@OfficialRFDTV@CowGuyClose— @ScottTheCowGuy Oct 21, 2026
@ @ScottTheCowGuy
October 19, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Every trip to the Vegas Strip tells me the economy is doing very well. @carleygarner calls it one of the best indicators, since tourists cut back first when money gets tight. Full episode: More at:
Every trip to the Vegas Strip tells me the economy is doing very well. @carleygarner calls it one of the best indicators, since tourists cut back first when money gets tight.Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=YJJCTl6M…More at: johnsonrandall.com/ Video— @jaredjjohnson Oct 19, 2026
@ @jaredjjohnson
October 16, 2026
My Grok Bot is doing tasks I didn't ask it to do. How worried should I be? 😂
My Grok Bot is doing tasks I didn't ask it to do. How worried should I be? 😂— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Oct 16, 2026
@ @carleygarner

Cow Guy Close

See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

10/06/2026
If you missed our charts on Mad Money last night, here they are.
If you missed Off the Charts last night with @jimcramer on @MadMoneyOnCNBC, here is our chart analysis from the segment. Here is a link to the written version: https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=199b79d4-c0e9-11f1-9660-55f2a66b3dcf&pt=campaign&t=1791224779&s=6d07a53aefa1aa490e66c9bc168422596266c4fb628461c2181c50e6b4106fea
10/06/2026
A relief rally in gold? Carley talked to Bloomberg Television about it.
Carley joined Bloomberg Television's Open Interest yesterday to discuss a potential relief rally in gold as oil and yields come off. $GLD #gold #interestrates #crudeoil #oil
09/29/2026
Ditch the winter weather and come see us in Sarasota in December.
We will host an educational session at the upcoming Sarasota MoneyShow. We would love to see you there! You'll have the chance to hear outlooks from some of the biggest names in the industry, and it is a great time to get away from the cold weather.
09/29/2026
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom.
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom. Carley joined Schwab's Alex Coffey to discuss crude oil. Check it out:
09/23/2026
The US dollar is steering the ship.
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/Y8UVNYCi-V0aodxGU Dollar weakness doesn't get enough credit for the stock market boom. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is rising, he'll cite earnings per share and product innovation, but he won’t mention that dollar weakness has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. I believe the dollar is steering the ship. I talked about it with @ScottTheCowGuy on @OfficialRFDTV

Notices

09/10/2026
See us in Sarasota in December!
Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :) Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :)
07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 07/17/2026
Getting started with the DeCarley Trader futures and options trading platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/24/2026
Home Page: Navigating the DeCarley Trader Futures and Options Trading Home Page
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/27/2026
Charts/Quotes Page: Navigating Futures Quotes and Charts in the DeCarley Trader Platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/30/2026
Option Chain Page: Viewing and trading from the DeCarley Trader option chain.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/05/2026
News Page: Utilizing the News Feed page in the DeCarley Trader
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/14/2026
Option Spreads Page: An overview of the Option Spread Builder page in the DeCarley Trader platform.
DeCarley Trading

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner