08/31/2026
Strategy Idea...Short October micro oil with insurance
Strategy Idea...Short October micro oil with insurance Headlines are bullish on oil, but we are seeing lower highs.
Recommendations
08/24/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy December Corn Puts
The perfect storm of bullish news pushed corn to its trendline.
08/20/2026
Strategy Idea...Sell mini soybeans with catastrophic insurance.
According to MRCI, going short January soybeans this week and holding through mid-October (harvest lows) has been profitable in 12 of the last 15 years. With the chart looking extended, RSI a bit sluggish, and the dollar sitting on its 200-day moving average (boosting commodities in recent sessions), it seems all the bullish news might be priced in for the grain market. We like the idea of going short mini futures contracts and purchasing December (standard-sized) soybean $15.00 calls to act as catastrophic insurance, and as a backstop for those looking to scale into extra minis (one standard call fully protects 5 mini futures above the strike price). Jan beans are a "seasonal sell"
08/14/2026
Strategy Idea...Nibble on bullish cattle spreads.
Last year, the cattle market managed to rally from about August 15th, putting in a last-hurrah rally. This year might be setting up for something similar, but if not, the chart suggests we are likely to at least see a temporary rally. 217.00 has been a strong pivot price for the October cattle futures (including supporting the August 15th 2025 rally). It is as simple as the market behaves bullishly above it and bearishly below it. Cattle futures are reacting negatively to plant closures, but in the past these events have created short-term bottoms.
08/13/2026
Strategy Idea...Cheap bearish gold plays
Being on the wrong side of the metals futures market (or short options) this year has been a wild ride. Accordingly, we hesitate to get over our skis there. That said, there are ways to play with very low and limited risk if you are willing to spend a few hundred on what most would consider a long shot, but might not be as long as it appears. We have seen gold put together both historical rallies and declines; there is a good chance that pattern repeats. If so, the low $3,000s could be in play! Gold is testing significant resistance; we think it probably holds.
08/06/2026
Strategy Idea...Cheap Euro Currency Play
If the US makes a habit of selling euros to buy yen, the euro is too high.
Newsletters
08/24/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Oil headlines are bullish, but price action isn’t
Fake news and supply data circulating in commodity markets are as old as time. Commodity market data, particularly outside the US, is generally collected and/or reported by parties that stand to benefit from specific price movements. We have recently seen two startling examples: the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which consists of about 100 volunteers from the ag industry (marketers, analysts, elevator operators, farmers, etc.) who take randomized samples of corn and then assess a crop yield estimate. Most of these volunteers are honest dealers, but it is naïve to assume that a group of people who benefit from higher corn prices would not reach a partially biased conclusion Oil headlines are bullish, but price action isn’t
08/20/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...First the Yen, then the Treasuries
It must be intervention season.
08/11/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Scanning for overcrowded futures trades
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=769ca182-95a9-11f1-906d-2db62f7374a7&pt=campaign&t=1786470130&s=adbc49482c355f63ea9232c18c6ce2049e7cb277a83d49b0e35c806fcb6a9688 Crowded trades never stay that way forever.
08/04/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Yentervention: What is it and why does it matter? PART 2
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=a5130394-9031-11f1-9b3b-230a8a8beeca&pt=campaign&t=1785868433&s=c098f14b38067e2af7ac8276edd93ab9ff7285dce9a1a16eb1e3943374739653 In part 1 of our “Yen-tervention” analysis, we noted the tendency for the Yen and the 10-year note to experience bull and bear markets in unison and concluded that if the Yen intervention is successful, it could breed a new bull market in Treasuries.
08/04/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Yentervention: What is it and why does it matter? (PART 1)
The US Treasury and the Bank of Japan teamed up to support the spiraling decline in the Yen. If you are wondering why in the world the United States would try to police the currency market in the same way they have failed to police global culture, look no further than the Treasury market. Looking at a daily chart of the Yen and the 10-year note side-by-side, it is clear that Treasuries sell off prior to large spikes in the yen. This isn’t a coincidence; instead, it is the systematic liquidation of US Treasuries held by Japan, the largest sovereign holder of US debt, to raise cash to purchase Yen in hopes of stabilizing the currency. Low Japanese interest rates and a weak currency have impacted US markets.
07/23/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the stock market out of gas?
There are headlines circulating about large short seller positions in the equity market. We can see why they would want to be short, and we agree (we recently suggested a bearish option play). However, it should be noted that when short sellers are active, it often acts as fuel to the fire. Is the stock market out of gas?
Futures Chart Analysis
GOLD ~ Daily
Bitcoin ~ Weekly
10-Year Note COT Data
Copper ~ Monthly
DeCarley Press
08/31/2026
Carley discussed the oil market on Bloomberg Television last night
I joined @haslindatv last night on @BloombergTV to discuss the oil market. The US is attempting to juggle a psychological operation against the oil market to counter Iran war flare-ups. It is probably no coincidence that we heard of the Venezuela deal just before learning that the US is on the offensive. However, beyond a knee-jerk reaction, the oil market might eventually view this particular round of violence as bearish for energy prices, given that the targets are Hormuz-related. I joined @haslindatv last night on @BloombergTV to discuss the oil market. The US is attempting to juggle a psychological operation against the oil market to counter Iran war flare-ups. It is probably no coincidence that we heard of the Venezuela deal just before learning that the US is on the offensive. However, beyond a knee-jerk reaction, the oil market might eventually view this particular round of violence as bearish for energy prices, given that the targets are Hormuz-related.
08/05/2026
Scott and Carley talk about how saving the Yen, is saving Treasuries
The reality is, bull/bear markets in the Yen and Treasuries tend to go hand in hand. Supporting the Yen is supporting US Treasuries (encouraging lower interest rates).
07/30/2026
Option butterflies are underrated, especially in the most volatile crude oil market of our lives
With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close. With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close.
07/23/2026
War and political risk priced back into crude oil, now what?
While everyone is focused on supply issues in oil, we are looking at demand destruction and the US dollar rally. What a wild ride 2026 has been for oil traders!
07/08/2026
Coffee market volatility reminds us that markets seek and destroy leverage and weak hands
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Live Economic News/Data
09/01/2026
Venezuela grants U.S.-backed oil firm NABEP 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields, White House says
Venezuelan interim authorities have granted North American Blue Energy Partners 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields, White House says.
09/01/2026
Tanker struck in Hormuz, raising worries over escalation, as Trump vows to hit Iran 'hard'
Iran launched an attack on two American bases in Jordan on Monday in retaliation for the U.S. attack on its Larak Island.
09/01/2026
Bessent reportedly tells Russia no economic relief until Ukraine war ends as Europe snubs Moscow at G20
The meeting underscored Washington's willingness to reopen diplomatic talks with Moscow, as Europe intends to isolate the nation while the war continues.
Notices
07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA
06/23/2026
DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!
The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 08/31/2026
WTI Crude Oil futures hold near $86 as Middle East tensions persist. 8/31/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/31/2026
Gold futures fall below $4,500 as Treasury yields rise. 8/31/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/31/2026
Bull Market Momentum vs. Midterm Year Reality
CME Group
Posted on 08/31/2026
Live Cattle futures hold steady as Lean Hogs surge on strong demand. 8/31/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/31/2026
Soybean futures find mixed trade as corn hits new contract highs. 8/31/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/29/2026
The Fed's 57% hike probability meets a Friday payrolls test. 8/28/26
CME Group
