Recommendations

10/02/2026
Strategy Idea...Long-dated Yen Calls just in case.
The Treasury market rout has been stunning. While there are many reasons for the selling in bonds and notes, perhaps one of them is the liquidation by Japan to raise cash for another Yentervention. Japan has conducted two official interventions and one unofficial intervention to turn the tide on the yen (or, more specifically, the yen carry trade that has flooded the world with excess liquidity). Prior to each of those interventions, the Treasury market suffered a significant decline. Further, the last intervention involved US support in which the US Treasury sold euros to purchase Yen. This week, we have seen significant weakness in the euro, which may or may not be related to preparation for a currency market manipulation. We like the idea of buying March 6700 calls just in case something is brewing. We've seen this movie before
09/29/2026
Strategy Idea...Quick and dirty wheat play.
Strategy Idea...Quick and dirty wheat play.
09/29/2026
Strategy Idea...Seasonal gold play
Strategy Idea...Seasonal gold play
09/18/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy pigs.
Ironically, the lean hog market hasn't necessarily benefited from higher beef prices (normally, we might see consumers shift from red meat to hogs). Even more interesting, according to the COT report issued by the CFTC, large speculators (assumed to be smart money but a group that often gets over their skis) is as aggressively short futures as they have ever been. When we start seeing record net short positions, it often signals that most of the selling is behind us, and the selling will likely dry up. Lastly, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) also shows downside momentum slowing. The RSI has diverged from the hog futures market: it is making higher lows while hogs are making lower lows. Specs are as short hogs as we have seen them, and chart support is here.
09/14/2026
Strategy Idea...Put spreads in Fat Cattle
Cattle prices are significantly off the all-time highs set in this cycle, but they are still historically elevated. Further, we have yet to give back the entire "screw worm" rally. With the parasite crossing the border and precautions in place to manage it, we would expect the market to at least retrace to levels seen before the threat emerged. For reference, this would be roughly 200.00 in live cattle (and just under 300.00 in feeders). Live cattle has worked off the oversold condition; another leg lower?
09/11/2026
Strategy Idea...10-year note calls or micro futures
Being a bond bull hasn't paid off, but that may change soon.

Newsletters

09/30/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
We’ve been bearish on gold for quite some time and remain bearish overall. But the stars are aligning for what has generally been a high-probability setup for a relief rally, and we cannot ignore it. For starters, according to our friends at MRCI (a seasonal trading service), going long December gold on or about September 29 and holding through October 25 has been profitable in 12 of the last 15 years. Obviously, this is a tendency, not a guarantee, but the Indian festival and wedding season, combined with China’s Golden Week celebration, tends to boost the metal. Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
09/24/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Stock investors don’t give the US dollar enough fanfare.
In my view, the sluggish US dollar hasn’t gotten enough credit for asset booms. It sounds smarter to attribute stronger stock performance to fundamentals (balance sheets, product development, etc.), but there is always an elephant in the room that is generally ignored. That elephant is the US dollar. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is going higher, he will say earnings per share and product ingenuity, but he won’t mention that a weaker dollar has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. The US dollar doesn’t get enough fanfare from stock investors.
09/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Diesel prices are the talk of the town. Farm/business hedge?
The world went from talking about oil to talking about diesel. Ultimately, our lives run on diesel fuel, not oil. Diesel, a refined product of crude oil, generally offers higher torque at a lower price than traditional gasoline. Accordingly, it is used in farm equipment and shipping vehicles (trucks, ships, and trains). Diesel prices are the talk of the town. Farm/business hedge?
09/11/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Oil and the Fed are holding markets hostage.
Oil is holding the financial markets hostage with the Fed on deck.
09/01/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Are the grains following 2010?
Like most renewable commodities, the grain markets pose significant challenges for producers and marketers. Row crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat spend the majority of their time trading in supply-glut environments plagued by depressed prices. Yet, on occasion, these markets produce sudden and powerful bull markets before the bear comes out of hibernation once again. This year is showing signs of one of those rare years in which the grain bull runs uncontrollably, but there are some near-term obstacles that risk turning this rally into the typical failed rally rather than the exception to that rule. Another failed grain rally, or is this for real?
08/24/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Oil headlines are bullish, but price action isn’t
Fake news and supply data circulating in commodity markets are as old as time. Commodity market data, particularly outside the US, is generally collected and/or reported by parties that stand to benefit from specific price movements. We have recently seen two startling examples: the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which consists of about 100 volunteers from the ag industry (marketers, analysts, elevator operators, farmers, etc.) who take randomized samples of corn and then assess a crop yield estimate. Most of these volunteers are honest dealers, but it is naïve to assume that a group of people who benefit from higher corn prices would not reach a partially biased conclusion Oil headlines are bullish, but price action isn’t

Futures Chart Analysis

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10-Year-Note ~ Monthly
Crude Oil ~ Weekly
Crude Oil Update ~ Daily

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October 2, 2026
Her job was to instigate the Indiana Fever players, and not long after, she took Lexie Hull down with a UFC grappling move; sigh, the team promoting "love, not hate" last night was not practicing what it preaches. As a local, the sportsmanship displayed by the Aces organization and their fans is disappointing. #aces #fever #wnba #caitlinclark
Her job was to instigate the Indiana Fever players, and not long after, she took Lexie Hull down with a UFC grappling move; sigh, the team promoting "love, not hate" last night was not practicing what it preaches. As a local, the sportsmanship displayed by the Aces organization and their fans is dis
@ @carleygarner
October 2, 2026
We all knew oil was making it through the Strait despite the official ship count, but now we know how. This is a good read :) #oil #crude #energy #iran #straitofhormuz $USO
We all knew oil was making it through the Strait despite the official ship count, but now we know how. This is a good read :) #oil#crude#energy#iran#straitofhormuz $USO bloomberg.com/news/articles/…— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Oct 2, 2026
@ @carleygarner
October 2, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: RT by @carleygarner: You don't want to miss my interview with @carleygarner as she a bullish short-term tactical opportunity for gold. However she still sees lower prices in the medium term.
You don't want to miss my interview with @carleygarner as she a bullish short-term tactical opportunity for gold. However she still sees lower prices in the medium term. kitco.com/news/article/2026-…— @neils_C Oct 2, 2026
@ @neils_C
October 1, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: RT by @carleygarner: Seasonality and other factors support a higher price of gold in the weeks ahead, @carleygarner Carley Garner reports. Is Gold Setting Up For A Nice Bounce?
Seasonality and other factors support a higher price of gold in the weeks ahead, @carleygarner Carley Garner reports.Is Gold Setting Up For A Nice Bounce? fnarena.com/2026/10/01/is-go…— @au_shareplicity Oct 1, 2026
@ @au_shareplicity
September 30, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: RT by @carleygarner: Gold is attracting renewed attention as a hedge against government spending, inflation, and economic uncertainty. @carleygarner tells @ScottTheCowGuy why she’s becoming more comfortable with tactical long positions with metals. 🔗
Gold is attracting renewed attention as a hedge against government spending, inflation, and economic uncertainty. @carleygarner tells @ScottTheCowGuy why she’s becoming more comfortable with tactical long positions with metals. 🔗 cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/XK…— @CowGuyClose Sep 30, 2026
@ @CowGuyClose
September 30, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: RT by @carleygarner: The hits keep coming.Kenny Polcari, Sean O'Hara,Carley Garner,David Nelson & Tommy Grisafi. Tune to The Cow Guy Close RFD-TV from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. Epic lineup! @KennyPolcari @PacerETFs @carleygarner @davidnelsoncfa @AgBullMedia @ashleepitzl @officialRFDTV @cowguyclose
The hits keep coming.Kenny Polcari, Sean O'Hara,Carley Garner,David Nelson & Tommy Grisafi. Tune to The Cow Guy Close RFD-TV from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. Epic lineup! @KennyPolcari@PacerETFs@carleygarner@davidnelsoncfa@AgBullMedia@ashleepitzl@officialRFDTV@cowguyclose— @ScottTheCowGuy Sep 30, 2
@ @ScottTheCowGuy
September 30, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: RT by @carleygarner: CAITLIN CLARK ALLEY OOP TO KELSEY MITCHELL GAINBRIDGE IS ON THEIR FEET
CAITLIN CLARK ALLEY OOP TO KELSEY MITCHELL GAINBRIDGE IS ON THEIR FEET Video— @CClarkReport Sep 29, 2026
@ @CClarkReport
September 29, 2026
For the first time in a long time, I was comfortable suggesting that our brokerage clients and newsletter subscribers consider tactical long positions in gold. #gold $GLD #metals #preciousmetals #debasement
For the first time in a long time, I was comfortable suggesting that our brokerage clients and newsletter subscribers consider tactical long positions in gold. #gold $GLD #metals#preciousmetals#debasement— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Sep 29, 2026
@ @carleygarner
September 29, 2026
We will host an educational session at the upcoming Sarasota @MoneyShow . We would love to see you there! You'll have the chance to hear outlooks from some of the biggest names in the industry, and it is a great time to get away from the cold weather.
We will host an educational session at the upcoming Sarasota @MoneyShow . We would love to see you there! You'll have the chance to hear outlooks from some of the biggest names in the industry, and it is a great time to get away from the cold weather. sarasotamms.moneyshow.com/?s…— DeCarleyTrading
@ @carleygarner
September 29, 2026
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom. I spoke to Alex Coffey about this on the Schwab Network this morning.
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom. I spoke to Alex Coffey about this on the Schwab Network this morning. decarleytrading.com/learn-to…— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Sep 29, 2026
@ @carleygarner

Cow Guy Close

See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

09/29/2026
Ditch the winter weather and come see us in Sarasota in December.
We will host an educational session at the upcoming Sarasota MoneyShow. We would love to see you there! You'll have the chance to hear outlooks from some of the biggest names in the industry, and it is a great time to get away from the cold weather.
09/29/2026
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom.
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom. Carley joined Schwab's Alex Coffey to discuss crude oil. Check it out:
09/23/2026
The US dollar is steering the ship.
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/Y8UVNYCi-V0aodxGU Dollar weakness doesn't get enough credit for the stock market boom. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is rising, he'll cite earnings per share and product innovation, but he won’t mention that dollar weakness has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. I believe the dollar is steering the ship. I talked about it with @ScottTheCowGuy on @OfficialRFDTV
09/10/2026
105 Oil? is this a blow off top?
I got a little sidetracked while chatting with @LloydBoyLuke , but in summary, I think oil is probably blow-off topping, and Treasuries are blow-off bottoming. We came into the Iran conflict with a supply glut, and we will likely end it with a bigger glut, but what happens in between is anybody's guess. I fear we get an inflation hedge and hot money flow into commodities if oil holds above $105.00. The administration has shifted from the war with Iran being temporary to a “buckle up, buttercup” narrative. Leaked communications now suggest the administration is admitting the conflict could last through the President’s full term. This is NOT what anyone wants to hear or accept, and it's not what the oil market has been led to believe or operate on to this point, so it is repricing. The recent surge in oil has been hard to watch. It is discouraging on many levels, but we need to put it in perspective. In February, had we been given this scenario (the potential for a multi-year war,…
09/03/2026
Oil prices on the brink, what's next?
An argument could be made that the narrative is focused on doom and gloom but is ignoring the green shoots. If so, oil should be nearing an inflection point. I spoke to @ScottTheCowGuy about this yesterday on @CowGuyClose An argument could be made that the narrative is focused on doom and gloom but is ignoring the green shoots. If so, oil should be nearing an inflection point. I spoke to @ScottTheCowGuy about this yesterday on @CowGuyClose

Notices

09/10/2026
See us in Sarasota in December!
Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :) Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :)
07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 08/21/2026
Day Trader Page: Futures Day Trader Platform - DeCarley Trader (a customized version of CQG Desktop)
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/14/2026
Option Spreads Page: An overview of the Option Spread Builder page in the DeCarley Trader platform.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/05/2026
News Page: Utilizing the News Feed page in the DeCarley Trader
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/30/2026
Option Chain Page: Viewing and trading from the DeCarley Trader option chain.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/27/2026
Charts/Quotes Page: Navigating Futures Quotes and Charts in the DeCarley Trader Platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/24/2026
Home Page: Navigating the DeCarley Trader Futures and Options Trading Home Page
DeCarley Trading

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner