DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Own a little gold with mitigated risk.

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Short term bullish corn play.

In the bigger picture, we are bearish on both oil and corn. However, the pattern has been switchback range trading. We can expect that to continue as long as it doesn't; thus far, it seems it will. Further, corn futures are holding weekly support, and the July options are pretty darn cheap. We like buying an at-the-money corn call for about 11 cents. If corn rallies, it will be similar to being long a futures contract but with limited risk.

05/27/2026

Strategy Idea...Another bearish S&P play

If you were able to exit the previous S&P 500 strategy with a profit, or have been sidelined waiting for an idea to play the downside as a speculation or portfolio hedge, we like using August week 3 (Friday expiration) options to construct a bear put spread with a naked leg. This strategy carries unlimited risk beyond the naked call; unless you are long the equivalent of roughly $375,000 in similarly allocated stock in your investment portfolio. In that case, you are essentially giving up gains above the short call strike. Strategy Idea...Another bearish S&P play

05/19/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy August Corn Puts

We like getting back into corn.

05/18/2026

Strategy Idea...Another bearish oil play

If you were able to exit the previous crude oil play with a profit or have been looking for a place to enter, this might be the time to give the downside a try. If you are holding the previous bearish play, we would suggest either sitting tight or considering buying back the short put and leaving the rest (short call and long put). Strategy Idea...Another bearish oil play

05/14/2026

Strategy Idea...Aggressive equity hedges.

It hasn't paid to be skeptical of the stock market rally. At some point, we might be talking about the 2026 rally like we do the early 2000s or the 2007ish timeframe. Or, this will be the exception to the Buffett rule, which suggests stocks shouldn't exceed about 150% of total GDP (right now we are at about 230% of GDP). I am not in the camp that thinks this time is different, but again, that has been the wrong take. Nevertheless, if you are a lonely bear or do have some stock market exposure you would like to hedge (a way to protect profits without selling shares to incur a taxable event), you can use a risk reversal strategy in which a call option (currently overpriced) can be sold to pay for a put option (currently underpriced). This allows traders to purchase a put option, otherwise priced at just under $3,000, using the market's money in exchange for risk above 8300. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

05/28/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Commodity Round Table

2025 and 2026 have aged those of us in the industry by at least a decade; suddenly, 40s are the new 50s. Excessive volatility has made it hard to keep up with market movements when dedicating newsletters to a single commodity; thus, we will continue to feature multiple markets in our write-ups to ensure we cover most bases. We are in a hot money market in which participants have been trained to chase assets rather than invest in them.

05/21/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

The economic numbers look great, but I must wonder how we are getting there. In other words, what is going on under the hood that is allowing the system to squeeze blood from a turnip? I could be wrong, but I suspect it is much darker and more dangerous than most people believe. In 2007, I vividly remember the economic numbers firing on all cylinders until they didn’t. The aggressive government home-buying programs and risky investment products behind the scenes made the housing market look like it was booming, when it was artificial. Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

05/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...E-mini stock indices, crude, and gold.

I realize there is an entire generation of young market participants who are convinced they are better investors than Warren Buffett, who is hoarding cash as they are hoarding risky assets. To be fair, this market has favored risk-takers, bandwagon traders, and those who aren’t afraid to concentrate their wealth in a handful of stocks or alternative assets; gold, silver, crypto, and tech stocks all took turns going parabolic. However, those of us who have been around for a while know that something is wrong. We’ve renamed the pivot line to account for market insanity.

05/07/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Black Gold (AKA Crude Oil) and Yellow Gold

While there is plenty of disagreement on the overall direction of oil, I think we can all agree that this is a day-to-day situation. Those attempting to make decisions based on fundamentals are likely getting whiplash because the rally hinges on what is essentially a man-made crisis. Unlike weather, wars can be started and stopped on a dime, which complicates analysis. Black Gold (AKA Crude Oil) and Yellow Gold

04/29/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you think.

Ignoring the aspect of livestock gas emissions, there are few similarities between natural gas and live cattle futures. Yet, when we look under the hood, we can see some glaring parallels. Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you think.

04/23/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?

Early in the Iranian “excursion” war, most commodities followed oil higher. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, agricultural commodity markets such as corn, soybeans, and wheat experienced sharp rallies amid a hectic war market. While wheat had its own bullish narrative, Ukraine is sometimes referred to as the world’s breadbasket due to its robust production of the commodity; the others rallied primarily on cash inflows into commodity ETFs and funds. At the time, investors clamored for ways to hedge inflation risk. The money rotating into commodities allowed corn prices to reach levels above $8.00 per bushel, soybeans to nearly $18.00 per bushel, and soybean oil to just over $0.90 per pound. The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?

05/27/2026

Gold is falling out of favor in a hot money market.

Scott and Carley discussed gold while wearing a Gold(en) Knights sweater. Gold is probably repeating the 2020 Treasury blow-off top playbook. Scott and Carley discussed gold while wearing a Gold(en) Knights sweater. Gold is probably repeating the 2020 Treasury blow-off top playbook. Check out the video- https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/tgBTVkRG

05/06/2026

The crude oil chart is our only hope, Scott and Carley discuss on Cow Guy Close

It is impossible to keep up with fundamentals in oil; the story changes daily. Just last night, the President posted on Truth Social, which required a lot of creative interpretation. But if we assume that markets are all-knowing and that some members of society receive inside information before we do, the chart is our only reliable guide. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO

04/22/2026

Oligopolies in fertilizer causing farmers to be price takers on both ends

Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers. Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers.

03/12/2026

Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.

This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.

03/12/2026

The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.

Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

05/29/2026

Trump lays out Iran deal demands, says he's about to make 'final determination'

Trump's Truth Social statement left unclear which of his conditions are already part of a deal that negotiators are working on to pause the U.S.-Iran war.

05/29/2026

Dell stock skyrockets 32%, heads for best day ever as AI server revenue soars

Dell reported its fastest pace of revenue growth since returning to the public market in 2018, with AI server revenue soaring 757% over last year.

05/29/2026

SpaceX skeptics have added reason for concern after Musk comments diverge from IPO filing

In a post on X, Elon Musk offered details about SpaceX's deal with Anthropic that weren't included in the company's IPO prospectus.

05/22/2026

Memorial Day Schedule

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, May 25.

04/28/2026

Subscribe to the DeCarley Perspective Substack for Commentary and Trading Ideas

For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month. DeCarley Trading brokerage clients receive our newsletters for free as long as their account is open and active. For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month.