Recommendations

02/22/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Natural Gas is Natural Gasing.
Natural gas futures are the poster child for commodity boom and bust cycles. All renewable, and most non-renewable, commodities follow cycles of oversupply and undersupply as market participants react to price changes. Yet, the commodity that exhibits this behavior in the most dramatic of ways is natural gas. Thus, it deserves its nickname: the widow maker. Natural Gas is Natural Gasing.
02/22/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish ZB play.
The bond market often struggles in February but generally finds its way going into March. Further, the 30-year bond market has been hugging its breakout trendline and habitually finds buyers. This should be enough to at least keep a floor under pricing, but possibly garner a nice rally. Seasonality turns bullish in Treasuries this week.
02/16/2024
Strategy Idea...Fresh Bearish ES Spread
We started feeling bearish in the S&P near 4900 and felt the 5000 would be more challenging to surpass than it has been. Nevertheless, most metrics suggest the bulk of the rally is behind us for now (reference monthly NASDAQ chart). Weekly and Monthly charts of the stock indices are highly suspect.
02/14/2024
Strategy Idea...Nibble on long 10-year note calls.
Financial and commodity markets are a bit out of sync; there are a lot of "rules" being broken. Accordingly, we prefer to keep it light for now when it comes to new speculations. We've been waiting for Treasuries to find their way to current levels; from a charting standpoint, the bulk of the selling could be behind us and the rally is likely to resume. The seasonal low in Treasuries is due next week, but let's start with a nibble.
02/05/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy inexpensive May Soybean Calls.
Perpetually sluggish bean prices have created an environment of cheap call options. The market is pricing in perfection, but that might be premature at this stage in the cycle. Further, the Brazilian crop has been full of surprises and that probably won't change. It's time to nibble on bullish soybean plays with limited risk.
01/30/2024
Strategy Idea...Risk reversals in June cattle for specs or hedgers.
When it comes to the cattle rally, we are in the "dead cat bounce" camp. Seasonality and oversold market conditions worked with unfavorable weather to create a nice rally, but we can't get 2014 out of our memory. If this is a repeat of what we saw a decade ago, this rally will run out of steam sooner rather than later. In fact, the downtrend line on a weekly chart suggests it might be imminent. Dead cat bounce in cattle, or the real deal?

Newsletters

02/08/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...USDA Cattle Report Clickbait?
This week, I joined guest host Tommy Grisafi on RFD-TV’s Cow Guy Close to discuss the current situation for cattle ranchers and beef consumers. Going into the hit, I had quite a few things I wanted to say but failed to articulate; live TV is harder than it looks! USDA Cattle Report Clickbait?
02/06/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...The Monthly NASDAQ 100 Chart is Concerning
We don’t want to make anyone panic, but a good argument can be made for aggressively protecting tech stock holdings. If my memory serves me correctly, we haven’t shared this monthly chart since late 2021 (when it was featured on the December 21st, 2021, episode of Mad Money). At the time, we were concerned about the unhealthy, steeply sloped rally. Since then, the NASDAQ 100 corrected from just under 17,000 to just over 10,000, later rallying back to make new all-time highs. However, those new highs are raising some red flags.
02/01/2024
We continue to believe the path of least resistance is lower in the short run for the ES.
FOMO rally chasers, funds caught on the wrong foot, and short squeezing have all contributed to the stock market rally that began in October. However, we can't help but think the market has come a little too far a little too fast. As we have noted in prior newsletters, this time of year is ripe for corrections. It's hard to justify current equity market valuations.
01/29/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Chart analysis on corn and wheat.
According to popular metrics, inflation is teetering into deflationary territory despite how consumers feel about the topic. Weak commodity prices have contributed to taming inflation; we believe this will continue to be the case over the course of the year. Nevertheless, that doesn't mean we won't see some temporary repricing, thus a possible uptick in inflation, along the way. Grain bottoms are hard to find, but they are probably coming.
01/26/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Speculators are heavily short grains; they might regret it.
The 2023 crop year harvest lows never materialized; instead, grain prices have continued to dribble lower throughout the winter. In a more typical year, we would see some sort of risk premium rally built into prices ahead of the uncertain planting and growing seasons. Yet, going into February, the grains are merely moderately off of recent lows. Speculators are heavily short grains; they might regret it.
01/22/2024
Late-Jan or early-Feb equity market breaks are somewhat common.
We aren't necessarily expecting the earnings season to deliver bearish news, but we question whether the numbers and guidance will be enough to support already lofty prices. History suggests we could get a probe or two higher on upside surprises, but as time goes on, prices will get heavy even if the news is bullish. In other words, there is a good chance the market has priced in a good earning season; only a great season would be enough to lure additional buying. Earnings noise on tap.

Futures Chart Analysis

COT Report - Grains
Soybeans - Daily
Crude Oil ~ Weekly
Crude Oil ~ Daily

DeCarley Press

02/02/2024
Crude oil, gold, currencies, and more on the Schwab Network
Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis. Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis.
01/31/2024
Will crude oil see $100 again?
Analysts are making bold bearish calls in crude oil, but futures broker, Carley Garner, has a differing opinion. Scott Shellady and Carley talked about it on the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE SEGMENT
01/16/2024
Are the stars aligning for the crude oil bulls? They appear to be.
The last four out of five times crude oil has tested the weekly trendline in the first quarter with Williams %R and Slow Stochastics oversold, the market has rallied sharply. The only exception to this was the COVID-19 shutdown energy fallout. If you missed my Schwab Network hit this morning, here is a link to the archive - https://decarleytrading.com/learn-to-trade-commodities/982-are-the-stars-aligning-for-crude-oil-bulls-carley-talked-about-it-on-schwab-network
12/20/2023
Today's Cow Guy Close topic was the Suez Canal and its impact on oil prices. w/ Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy
Today's Cow Guy Close topic was the Suez Canal and its impact on oil prices. w/ Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP OF THIS INTERVIEW
12/15/2023
Sweet opportunity in sugar options?
Carley had a casual cow day this week to sport her new Cow Guy Close hoodie 🙂 They also happened to talk about the potentially "sweet" bullish opportunity in sugar futures and options. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP

Notices

02/13/2024
1099s are available in the Gain Reports Portal and the Zaner360
You can now download your 2023 1099 reports when logged into the Zaner360 platform by going to "Reports", then "Statements", then "1099s".
02/06/2024
Presidents' Day Trading Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday, February 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday, February 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
01/14/2024
URGENT MESSAGE: SEVERAL CHICAGO AREA SERVERS ARE DOWN, IMPACTING TRADING PLATFORMS

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

02/28/2024
Apple cancels plans to build an electric car
Apple will wind down its team working on electric cars, called Special Projects Group, according to a report from Bloomberg News.
02/28/2024
From expanding screens to see-through displays: How tech giants are trying to jazz up their gadgets
Gadget makers are experimenting with various types of displays from expandable to bendable screends on their devices to stand out from the crowd.
02/28/2024
China doubles down on national security, expanding its state secrets law
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday signed an order to formally adopt revisions to a law on "Guarding State Secrets," according to state media.

Futures Market News

Posted on 02/27/2024
Euro slides amid USD weakness, 2/27/24
CME Group
Posted on 02/27/2024
Despite strong auction, 10-Year yield tops 4.3%; 2/27/24
CME Group
Posted on 02/27/2024
Stocks quiet ahead of PCE data, 2/27/24
CME Group
Posted on 02/27/2024
WTI rallies for 2nd session, 2/27/24
CME Group
Posted on 02/27/2024
Gold futures quiet ahead of PCE data, 2/27/24
CME Group
Posted on 02/27/2024
Your Need to Know with Bob Iaccino, 2/27/24
CME Group