Recommendations

07/25/2024
Strategy Idea...Aggressive gold bull spread.
If you are a gold bull looking for a "buy the dip" opportunity, this is probably it. The market is sitting on technical support as we enter a seasonally bullish time of year. While there aren't any guarantees that it will hold, summer gold swoons have historically been good for aggressive bulls. Gold Seasonality generally firms up in late July, and we are near support.
07/22/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy Christmas Crude Oil Calls.
The implied volatility in crude oil (basically the oil VIX) is near an all-time low. Thus, it is one of the best times ever to be long options in oil (and probably one of the worst times to be short options). We lean higher in oil due to seasonality, our belief that the dollar is rolling over, and expectations for US shale oil producers to operate in a "lame duck" fashion until after the election. Further, the recent selling was probably exacerbated by the expiration of the August futures contract. Accordingly, we suggest buying December $87 calls for about $900. This gives traders low and limited risk for 116 days. This might be the best time in history to be long crude oil volatility. We like buying calls.
07/10/2024
Strategy Idea...Risk Reversals in December Cotton
Cotton has quietly traded lower for months, but we are headed into a seasonally supportive time of year for the fiber. Further, the chart appears to be forming a double bottom at levels historically at the lower end of the price range. We like using risk reversals, using a short December 65-cent put to pay for a long December 77-cent call. There is unlimited risk below 65 cents, but other than COVID and the financial crisis, the market hasn't traded below that level in decades. Details below. Cotton could put in a double bottom with bullish seasonality as a tailwind.
07/08/2024
Strategy Idea...Option spreads looking for a nat gas reversal.
With natural gas prices trading at a discount, we could see utility companies begin preparing for winter usage. With natural gas prices trading at a discount, we could see utility companies begin preparing for winter usage.
06/24/2024
Strategy Idea...Long September Corn Calls
We have plenty of reasons to believe corn prices will be much lower in the fall, but what happens between now and then could be a different story. We aren't looking for a 2021-style grain rally, but once trade rolls out of the July futures, we could see a rather large bounce from long-term support. Corn Seasonality is Bearish, but the Chart says we could Bounce.
06/21/2024
Strategy Idea...Long September Bean Calls.
Soybeans are testing a significant technical pivot area at a time in which volatility is low. This allows the bulls to buy limited-risk call options on the cheap. Of course, cheap doesn't mean easy. Options are eroding assets, so buying them requires accurate timing to avoid the peril of decay. It might be worth owning limited risk upside volatility in soybeans.

Newsletters

07/26/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Mid-year Commodity Rundown Part 1
At the time, we were interpreting the copper reversal from its all-time high as a sign of economic dysfunction. After all, they don’t call it Dr. Copper for nothing. In addition to the undertones of economic weakness, a plunging copper market signals deflation. Less than two months later, copper has given back a dollar in value and appears to be poised for a decline to $3.80. Yet, even after recent selling, the equity market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, is still near the same price it was when the copper market reversed. Mid-year Commodity Rundown Part 1
07/16/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Additional thoughts on the ES and NQ.
Last week, we wrote about the fact the major indices are at all-time highs, but those who followed traditional portfolio theory regarding diversification have fallen behind. The inevitable result is that investors experience FOMO and give up on their disciplined approach to chase momentum stocks higher. This is unfortunate because buying stocks for no other reason than they are going up, and everyone else is too, is a dangerous game. Additional thoughts on ES and NQ
07/12/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Investors are being Punished for Diversifying; it won’t last.
While the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 are at all-time highs, many disciplined and diversified portfolios and funds are not. For instance, the Vanguard Target Dated 2030 Fund, designed for those looking to retire on or around 2030, offers an automated portfolio that adjusts allocation over time based on conventional diversification practices. This fund is still more than 10% below its 2021 high. If you are wondering, this particular fund contains both domestic and global stocks and bonds of varying quality and is allocated roughly at a 60%/40% balance. In essence, it is a perfectly balanced portfolio based on pre-Fed intervention finance. Investors are being Punished for Diversifying; it won’t last.
07/11/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Something is Brewing in Coffee Futures.
Coffee is delicious and helps many of us to start the day on the right foot. Yet, we rarely think about what goes on behind the scenes to bring that cup of joe to our desks. In the case of coffee, its journey is complicated and catastrophe-prone. Like most commodities, coffee trades in a feast or famine pattern; yet, due to geographical restrictions to coffee growth, this cycle is often more dramatic in price and human impact than many other products we consume. Something is Brewing in Coffee Futures
06/25/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Rigs, Houthis, and Specs are Keeping a Bid under Energy Futures
Technology has picked up the slack for US shale producers in recent years. Advances in efficiency have propelled the US into the top spot when it comes to global energy production. Yet, rig counts are at 2- to 3-year lows in crude oil and natural gas. We suspect there is a limit to how much production can be squeezed out of operations largely void of infrastructure and exploration expenditures. Rigs, Houthis, and Specs are Keeping a Bid under Energy Futures
06/18/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Heavy Metal Chart Fest.
Few markets can deliver the caliber of pain the precious metals do to buy-and-hold investors. Despite posting gains on a long enough time horizon, gold and silver tend to make sudden and often irrational price moves after prolonged periods of consolidation. Heavy Metal Chart Fest.

Futures Chart Analysis

ZN/ES ~ Monthly
LE ~ Monthly
ZC ~ Monthly
HG ~ Weekly

DeCarley Press

07/23/2024
I'm worried, y'all.
The stock market is rewarding risk takers and punishing those with diversified portfolios. The stock market is rewarding risk takers and punishing those with diversified portfolios. Click the link to view this clip - https://decarleytrading.com/learn-to-trade-commodities/1020-the-stock-indices-are-coming-in-too-hot-eventually-that-will-matter
07/10/2024
If $80 holds, the path of least resistance is higher for oil according to Carley Garner
We've seen buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action in oil, but the charts, seasonality, and fundamentals are positive. We talked about this on Schwab Network with Nicole Petallides today. We've seen buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action in oil, but the charts, seasonality, and fundamentals are positive. We talked about this on Schwab Network with Nicole Petallides today.
07/10/2024
Can coffee futures see $3.00 to $3.30 per pound?
Carley Garner and Scott Shellady discussed the coffee futures market on RFD-TV. As with all commodities, there is a boom and bust element, but the economic and human toll in coffee is more dramatic than in commodities produced in other parts of the world. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE CLIP
06/27/2024
Farmers can't control market price or demand, but they can hedge.
Carley Garner and Tommy Grisafi spoke about hedging price risk going into tomorrow's USDA Report. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE COW CLIP
06/25/2024
Carley Joined Schwab Network today to chat about Stocks, Metals, Currencies
Overheated equities, getting bullish on dips in metals, and the Yen carry trade. View the Video Clip by Clicking Here

Notices

07/01/2024
Independence Day Trading Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
06/13/2024
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
04/25/2024
IMPORTANT INFO REGARDING THE MIGRATION TO MY.STONEX.COM
ALL CLIENTS WILL BE MOVED FROM THE LEGACY MYACCOUNT.GAINFUTURES.COM TO THE MY.STONEX.COM PORTAL OVER THE WEEKEND

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/08/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/17/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

07/26/2024
Warner Bros. Discovery sues NBA to secure media rights awarded to Amazon
Warner Bros. Discovery has sued the NBA in an effort to keep distributing the league's games, after it chose NBCUniversal and Amazon as new media partners.
07/26/2024
Short seller Andrew Left of Citron charged with fraud by prosecutors, SEC
Short seller Andrew Left is accused in the indictment with crimes related to trades in Nvidia, and with concealing his Citron Capital's relationships.
07/26/2024
What Kamala Harris' latest financial disclosure reveals about her investment portfolio
Financial experts sum up Vice President Kamala Harris' latest financial disclosure of her personal assets in one word: Boring. But that's not a bad thing.

Futures Market News

Posted on 07/26/2024
Live Cattle Futures market attempting to converge with the cash market. 7/26/24
CME Group
Posted on 07/26/2024
Russell futures trading near highest levels in 2.5 years. 7/26/24
CME Group
Posted on 07/26/2024
New crop sales strong with 38 million bushels. 7/26/24
CME Group
Posted on 07/26/2024
WTI Crude trading down near 6-week lows. 7/26/24
CME Group
Posted on 07/26/2024
2-Year Note Futures trading near 4-month highs today. 7/26/24
CME Group
Posted on 07/26/2024
Gold rises above 50-day moving average today. 7/26/24
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

News & Research

Document/ID Submission

Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.