DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

09/18/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy pigs.

Ironically, the lean hog market hasn't necessarily benefited from higher beef prices (normally, we might see consumers shift from red meat to hogs). Even more interesting, according to the COT report issued by the CFTC, large speculators (assumed to be smart money but a group that often gets over their skis) is as aggressively short futures as they have ever been. When we start seeing record net short positions, it often signals that most of the selling is behind us, and the selling will likely dry up. Lastly, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) also shows downside momentum slowing. The RSI has diverged from the hog futures market: it is making higher lows while hogs are making lower lows. Specs are as short hogs as we have seen them, and chart support is here.

09/14/2026

Strategy Idea...Put spreads in Fat Cattle

Cattle prices are significantly off the all-time highs set in this cycle, but they are still historically elevated. Further, we have yet to give back the entire "screw worm" rally. With the parasite crossing the border and precautions in place to manage it, we would expect the market to at least retrace to levels seen before the threat emerged. For reference, this would be roughly 200.00 in live cattle (and just under 300.00 in feeders). Live cattle has worked off the oversold condition; another leg lower?

09/11/2026

Strategy Idea...10-year note calls or micro futures

Being a bond bull hasn't paid off, but that may change soon.

09/02/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish December Crude Oil Spread

We nibbled on limited-risk oil plays earlier this week, but after yesterday's rally, we are comfortable getting more aggressive. For instance, the December $105 call can be sold for a premium sufficient to cover an $80/$75 put spread. That gives December oil about $20.00 in room to rally before the position gets into too much trouble at expiration (this strategy carries unlimited risk above $105.00 on the December futures contract The oil market is testing a critical pivot line.

08/31/2026

Strategy Idea...Short October micro oil with insurance

Strategy Idea...Short October micro oil with insurance Headlines are bullish on oil, but we are seeing lower highs.

08/24/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy December Corn Puts

The perfect storm of bullish news pushed corn to its trendline.

09/11/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Oil and the Fed are holding markets hostage.

Oil is holding the financial markets hostage with the Fed on deck.

09/01/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Are the grains following 2010?

Like most renewable commodities, the grain markets pose significant challenges for producers and marketers. Row crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat spend the majority of their time trading in supply-glut environments plagued by depressed prices. Yet, on occasion, these markets produce sudden and powerful bull markets before the bear comes out of hibernation once again. This year is showing signs of one of those rare years in which the grain bull runs uncontrollably, but there are some near-term obstacles that risk turning this rally into the typical failed rally rather than the exception to that rule. Another failed grain rally, or is this for real?

08/24/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Oil headlines are bullish, but price action isn’t

Fake news and supply data circulating in commodity markets are as old as time. Commodity market data, particularly outside the US, is generally collected and/or reported by parties that stand to benefit from specific price movements. We have recently seen two startling examples: the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which consists of about 100 volunteers from the ag industry (marketers, analysts, elevator operators, farmers, etc.) who take randomized samples of corn and then assess a crop yield estimate. Most of these volunteers are honest dealers, but it is naïve to assume that a group of people who benefit from higher corn prices would not reach a partially biased conclusion Oil headlines are bullish, but price action isn’t

08/20/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...First the Yen, then the Treasuries

It must be intervention season.

08/11/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Scanning for overcrowded futures trades

https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=769ca182-95a9-11f1-906d-2db62f7374a7&pt=campaign&t=1786470130&s=adbc49482c355f63ea9232c18c6ce2049e7cb277a83d49b0e35c806fcb6a9688 Crowded trades never stay that way forever.

08/04/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Yentervention: What is it and why does it matter? PART 2

https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=a5130394-9031-11f1-9b3b-230a8a8beeca&pt=campaign&t=1785868433&s=c098f14b38067e2af7ac8276edd93ab9ff7285dce9a1a16eb1e3943374739653 In part 1 of our “Yen-tervention” analysis, we noted the tendency for the Yen and the 10-year note to experience bull and bear markets in unison and concluded that if the Yen intervention is successful, it could breed a new bull market in Treasuries.

09/10/2026

105 Oil? is this a blow off top?

I got a little sidetracked while chatting with @LloydBoyLuke , but in summary, I think oil is probably blow-off topping, and Treasuries are blow-off bottoming. We came into the Iran conflict with a supply glut, and we will likely end it with a bigger glut, but what happens in between is anybody's guess. I fear we get an inflation hedge and hot money flow into commodities if oil holds above $105.00. The administration has shifted from the war with Iran being temporary to a “buckle up, buttercup” narrative. Leaked communications now suggest the administration is admitting the conflict could last through the President’s full term. This is NOT what anyone wants to hear or accept, and it's not what the oil market has been led to believe or operate on to this point, so it is repricing. The recent surge in oil has been hard to watch. It is discouraging on many levels, but we need to put it in perspective. In February, had we been given this scenario (the potential for a multi-year war,…

09/03/2026

Oil prices on the brink, what's next?

An argument could be made that the narrative is focused on doom and gloom but is ignoring the green shoots. If so, oil should be nearing an inflection point. I spoke to @ScottTheCowGuy about this yesterday on @CowGuyClose An argument could be made that the narrative is focused on doom and gloom but is ignoring the green shoots. If so, oil should be nearing an inflection point. I spoke to @ScottTheCowGuy about this yesterday on @CowGuyClose

08/31/2026

Carley discussed the oil market on Bloomberg Television last night

I joined @haslindatv last night on @BloombergTV to discuss the oil market. The US is attempting to juggle a psychological operation against the oil market to counter Iran war flare-ups. It is probably no coincidence that we heard of the Venezuela deal just before learning that the US is on the offensive. However, beyond a knee-jerk reaction, the oil market might eventually view this particular round of violence as bearish for energy prices, given that the targets are Hormuz-related. I joined @haslindatv last night on @BloombergTV to discuss the oil market. The US is attempting to juggle a psychological operation against the oil market to counter Iran war flare-ups. It is probably no coincidence that we heard of the Venezuela deal just before learning that the US is on the offensive. However, beyond a knee-jerk reaction, the oil market might eventually view this particular round of violence as bearish for energy prices, given that the targets are Hormuz-related.

08/05/2026

Scott and Carley talk about how saving the Yen, is saving Treasuries

The reality is, bull/bear markets in the Yen and Treasuries tend to go hand in hand. Supporting the Yen is supporting US Treasuries (encouraging lower interest rates).

07/30/2026

Option butterflies are underrated, especially in the most volatile crude oil market of our lives

With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close. With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close.

09/19/2026

Trump says he's banning MS NOW, CNN and Politico from White House

Trump, who often accuses mainstream media outlets of writing "fake news," said on Truth Social that those outlets shouldn't be allowed to "FICTION and LIES."

09/19/2026

Trump says U.S. to build a 'large Military presence' in Greenland as part of a security deal with it and Denmark

Greenland has maintained it is not for sale, and the European Union earlier this year united to rebuke Trump over his push to acquire the island.

09/19/2026

A new arms race is unfolding on the ocean floor

Countries and companies are investing in technologies for underwater use amid concerns about the vulnerability of critical infrastructure on the ocean floor.

09/10/2026

See us in Sarasota in December!

Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :) Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :)

07/28/2026

Trading Commodity Options with Creativity

At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…