Recommendations

10/12/2026
Strategy Idea...Quick Corn Play
The latest USDA WASDE and crop production reports surprised the corn market on Friday with a much larger yield and crop outlook. However, half of the country doesn't believe the USDA's numbers, which could lure dip buyers this week. You might recall that the bulk of the late-summer corn rally followed the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which penciled in surprisingly low yields. Reality may be somewhere in the middle. Corn tends to rise more than it falls over the next two weeks.
10/06/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy Sugar Puts for Seasonal Play
Strategy Idea...Buy Sugar Puts for Seasonal Play
10/02/2026
Strategy Idea...Long-dated Yen Calls just in case.
The Treasury market rout has been stunning. While there are many reasons for the selling in bonds and notes, perhaps one of them is the liquidation by Japan to raise cash for another Yentervention. Japan has conducted two official interventions and one unofficial intervention to turn the tide on the yen (or, more specifically, the yen carry trade that has flooded the world with excess liquidity). Prior to each of those interventions, the Treasury market suffered a significant decline. Further, the last intervention involved US support in which the US Treasury sold euros to purchase Yen. This week, we have seen significant weakness in the euro, which may or may not be related to preparation for a currency market manipulation. We like the idea of buying March 6700 calls just in case something is brewing. We've seen this movie before
09/29/2026
Strategy Idea...Quick and dirty wheat play.
Strategy Idea...Quick and dirty wheat play.
09/29/2026
Strategy Idea...Seasonal gold play
Strategy Idea...Seasonal gold play
09/18/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy pigs.
Ironically, the lean hog market hasn't necessarily benefited from higher beef prices (normally, we might see consumers shift from red meat to hogs). Even more interesting, according to the COT report issued by the CFTC, large speculators (assumed to be smart money but a group that often gets over their skis) is as aggressively short futures as they have ever been. When we start seeing record net short positions, it often signals that most of the selling is behind us, and the selling will likely dry up. Lastly, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) also shows downside momentum slowing. The RSI has diverged from the hog futures market: it is making higher lows while hogs are making lower lows. Specs are as short hogs as we have seen them, and chart support is here.

Newsletters

10/08/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Everything you need to know about Single Stock Futures.
We are fielding quite a few inquiries about the newly listed single-stock futures. Because of limited liquidity, we can't currently trade these products via StoneX or other FCMs we clear through. But we hope that will change, and we want clients to understand why, and what needs to happen, for these products to be tradeable. Everything you need to know about Single Stock Futures.
10/05/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Same newsletter, more charts and comments.
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=199b79d4-c0e9-11f1-9660-55f2a66b3dcf&pt=campaign&t=1791224779&s=6d07a53aefa1aa490e66c9bc168422596266c4fb628461c2181c50e6b4106fea Same newsletter, more charts (we took a mulligan). Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
09/30/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
We’ve been bearish on gold for quite some time and remain bearish overall. But the stars are aligning for what has generally been a high-probability setup for a relief rally, and we cannot ignore it. For starters, according to our friends at MRCI (a seasonal trading service), going long December gold on or about September 29 and holding through October 25 has been profitable in 12 of the last 15 years. Obviously, this is a tendency, not a guarantee, but the Indian festival and wedding season, combined with China’s Golden Week celebration, tends to boost the metal. Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
09/24/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Stock investors don’t give the US dollar enough fanfare.
In my view, the sluggish US dollar hasn’t gotten enough credit for asset booms. It sounds smarter to attribute stronger stock performance to fundamentals (balance sheets, product development, etc.), but there is always an elephant in the room that is generally ignored. That elephant is the US dollar. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is going higher, he will say earnings per share and product ingenuity, but he won’t mention that a weaker dollar has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. The US dollar doesn’t get enough fanfare from stock investors.
09/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Diesel prices are the talk of the town. Farm/business hedge?
The world went from talking about oil to talking about diesel. Ultimately, our lives run on diesel fuel, not oil. Diesel, a refined product of crude oil, generally offers higher torque at a lower price than traditional gasoline. Accordingly, it is used in farm equipment and shipping vehicles (trucks, ships, and trains). Diesel prices are the talk of the town. Farm/business hedge?
09/11/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Oil and the Fed are holding markets hostage.
Oil is holding the financial markets hostage with the Fed on deck.

Futures Chart Analysis

10-Year Note ~ Monthly
Gold ~ Daily
10-Year-Note ~ Monthly
Crude Oil ~ Weekly

Carley Garner X Feed

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October 12, 2026
FWIW, @MooreResearch stats suggest selling December crude oil futures on October 10th and holding through November 17th has been profitable in 12 of the last 13 years with an average profit of about $3.80. I could be wrong, but despite the headlines, I don't believe fading the stat sheet is the way to go. $USO #crude #oil #crudeoil #energies #iran #war
FWIW, @MooreResearch stats suggest selling December crude oil futures on October 10th and holding through November 17th has been profitable in 12 of the last 13 years with an average profit of about $3.80. I could be wrong, but despite the headlines, I don't believe fading the stat sheet is the way
@ @carleygarner
October 11, 2026
Can we please see a gamma squeeze in Treasuries?
Can we please see a gamma squeeze in Treasuries?Barchart (@Barchart)Treasury Bond $TLT Call Option volume soars to highest level in history 📈 📈 Traders betting on yields coming down!!— https://x.com/Barchart/status/2109035964911722806— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Oct 11, 2026
@ @carleygarner
October 10, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Silver's Hangover Could Last for Years - Technical Outlook Silver's up-too-much hangover may be enduring if history is a guide. My graphic highlights the metal's 2026 red candle, which has parallels to peaks in 1980 and 2011. Those highs near $50 an ounce didn't find nadirs until around $3.60 in 1993 and $11.60 in 2020. What connects 2026 to previous enduring highs is silver's roughly 2.7x premium to its 10-year mean at the end of 2025 -- the greatest since 1979. At about $61 on Oct. 9, the metal faces good resistance near last year's $84 high and support around the $50 pivot since 1980. The 10-year mean at roughly $31 may signal silver's reversion risks. Highlighting th
Silver's Hangover Could Last for Years - Technical Outlook Silver's up-too-much hangover may be enduring if history is a guide. My graphic highlights the metal's 2026 red candle, which has parallels to peaks in 1980 and 2011. Those highs near $50 an ounce didn't find nadirs until around $3.60 in 199
@ @mikemcglone11
October 10, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, sparing the US refining capacity of a direct hit. The main refineries alongside his path were > 150km away in Mobile (AL) and Pascagoula (MS). Refined fuel production (and offshore crude production) should recover quickly.
Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, sparing the US refining capacity of a direct hit. The main refineries alongside his path were >150km away in Mobile (AL) and Pascagoula (MS). Refined fuel production (and offshore crude production) should recover quickly.Javier Blas (@JavierBlas)T
@ @JavierBlas
October 9, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Stocks-to-use ratio in corn 11.3% History would say $4.00-$4.70 corn
Stocks-to-use ratio in corn 11.3%History would say $4.00-$4.70 corn— @aghedger Oct 9, 2026
@ @aghedger
October 9, 2026
I had a lot of fun chatting with @jaredjjohnson on the Stock Market Playbook pod about the usual suspects...gold, silver, interest rates, currencies, and energy. Check it out here:
I had a lot of fun chatting with @jaredjjohnson on the Stock Market Playbook pod about the usual suspects...gold, silver, interest rates, currencies, and energy. Check it out here: decarleytrading.com/learn-to…— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Oct 9, 2026
@ @carleygarner
October 9, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Corn sitting at its last support 🌽 Down nearly -80 cents off the highs Down -50 cents in the last 7 sessions alone with the two USDA reports We’ve now given back 61.8% of the entire rally off the contract lows Re-testing a big area that’s provided both support and resistance several times in the past Bulls would like to hold this level. If this level breaks it could offer even more potential further downside *** Get our daily grain updates + alerts free
Corn sitting at its last support 🌽 Down nearly -80 cents off the highsDown -50 cents in the last 7 sessions alone with the two USDA reportsWe’ve now given back 61.8% of the entire rally off the contract lowsRe-testing a big area that’s provided both support and resistance several times in the pastBu
@ @MarketMinuteLLC
October 9, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Nasdaq futures swung sharply as same-day options lit up the tape. We break down the equities action across @CMEGroup markets and explore gold’s rebound potential, crude oil’s downtrend and natural gas seasonality with @carleygarner on "TWIFO 517: The Storm Rages On in Equities, Energy and Metals." Listen below to the Equities Spotlight, then catch the full episode on your favorite podcast platform including YouTube: And subscribe to the full Options Insider Radio Network on your favorite podcast platform: 🍎 Apple: 🎧Spotify:
Nasdaq futures swung sharply as same-day options lit up the tape. We break down the equities action across @CMEGroup markets and explore gold’s rebound potential, crude oil’s downtrend and natural gas seasonality with @carleygarner on "TWIFO 517: The Storm Rages On in Equities, Energy and Metals."
@ @Options
October 8, 2026
10-year Treasury note futures can break below the blue trendline (near 104'0 and a 5.4% yield); they have done so on a few occasions during the current bear market, but have not held below it. Sixteen years of price data suggest we are near an inflection point in the bond market. $TLT #bonds #treasuries #rates #interestrates
10-year Treasury note futures can break below the blue trendline (near 104'0 and a 5.4% yield); they have done so on a few occasions during the current bear market, but have not held below it. Sixteen years of price data suggest we are near an inflection point in the bond market. $TLT#bonds#treasur
@ @carleygarner
October 7, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Oil, gold, and interest rates are sending important signals. @ScottTheCowGuy and @carleygarner discuss the connection, and what investors should watch next. 🔗
Oil, gold, and interest rates are sending important signals. @ScottTheCowGuy and @carleygarner discuss the connection, and what investors should watch next.🔗 cdn.jwplayer.com/videos/wN0i…— @CowGuyClose Oct 7, 2026
@ @CowGuyClose

Cow Guy Close

See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

10/06/2026
If you missed our charts on Mad Money last night, here they are.
If you missed Off the Charts last night with @jimcramer on @MadMoneyOnCNBC, here is our chart analysis from the segment. Here is a link to the written version: https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=199b79d4-c0e9-11f1-9660-55f2a66b3dcf&pt=campaign&t=1791224779&s=6d07a53aefa1aa490e66c9bc168422596266c4fb628461c2181c50e6b4106fea
10/06/2026
A relief rally in gold? Carley talked to Bloomberg Television about it.
Carley joined Bloomberg Television's Open Interest yesterday to discuss a potential relief rally in gold as oil and yields come off. $GLD #gold #interestrates #crudeoil #oil
09/29/2026
Ditch the winter weather and come see us in Sarasota in December.
We will host an educational session at the upcoming Sarasota MoneyShow. We would love to see you there! You'll have the chance to hear outlooks from some of the biggest names in the industry, and it is a great time to get away from the cold weather.
09/29/2026
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom.
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom. Carley joined Schwab's Alex Coffey to discuss crude oil. Check it out:
09/23/2026
The US dollar is steering the ship.
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/Y8UVNYCi-V0aodxGU Dollar weakness doesn't get enough credit for the stock market boom. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is rising, he'll cite earnings per share and product innovation, but he won’t mention that dollar weakness has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. I believe the dollar is steering the ship. I talked about it with @ScottTheCowGuy on @OfficialRFDTV

Notices

09/10/2026
See us in Sarasota in December!
Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :) Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :)
07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 07/17/2026
Getting started with the DeCarley Trader futures and options trading platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/24/2026
Home Page: Navigating the DeCarley Trader Futures and Options Trading Home Page
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/27/2026
Charts/Quotes Page: Navigating Futures Quotes and Charts in the DeCarley Trader Platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/31/2026
Option Chain Page: Viewing and trading from the DeCarley Trader option chain.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/05/2026
News Page: Utilizing the News Feed page in the DeCarley Trader
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/14/2026
Option Spreads Page: An overview of the Option Spread Builder page in the DeCarley Trader platform.
DeCarley Trading

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner