Recommendations

11/06/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Lessons learned from 2018 midterms
To guess where we go from here, it makes sense to look at how markets behaved in the past. When Donald Trump was first elected in November 2016, S&P 500 futures collapsed as polls closed that evening, but by the next morning the market was sharply positive and rallied aggressively until it took a breather in early 2018, over a year later. Stocks quickly recovered from a 2018 hiccup and made slightly new highs heading into the midterms, but despite posting a positive performance over the next two years of his presidency, returns were fraught with extreme volatility. The DeCarley Perspective...Lessons learned from 2018 midterms
11/05/2026
Strategy Idea...Micro ES Nibble
We have been skeptical of the stock market for quite some time. We also believe that if the highs aren't already in, they aren't much higher from here, and the next few years will see two-way volatility. We come to this conclusion by looking at the 2028 midterm cycle. That said, today's plunge leaves prices at the 200-day moving average going into a strong seasonal period. We think limited-risk nibbles are worth a shot. We like buying December Micro S&P call options. If support holds, we likely see a sharp rebound to the overnight highs, or even make a run toward 8000. Post-midterm rallies are high-probability events.
11/04/2026
Strategy Idea...Soybean Nibble
According to the Consensus Bullish Sentiment Index, 60% of commodity insiders are still bullish on soybeans despite the decline. The US dollar is down sharply today, which supports commodities. The chart suggests we are in a trading range, with the bottom of the range acting as support near $12.00. A similar range in corn and wheat failed, so be aware of the possibility of soybeans following suit. Thus, saving dry powder for a potential move to $11.40 makes sense. With that in mind, it is relatively cheap to gain upside exposure with long call options. We like the January $12.40 call. The year-long soybean trendline is in play; most insiders are bullish, and the dollar is weakening.
10/29/2026
Strategy Idea...Nat Gas Collars
Natural gas bears are very short...and comfortable.
10/27/2026
Strategy Idea...Bull Call Spreads in Wheat.
Wheat futures went from overbought to oversold.
10/22/2026
Strategy Idea...Bearish Cattle Play
The livestock market, excluding hogs, has benefited from a bloodbath in the grain market, sharply low interest rates in recent sessions, and seasonal tailwinds. However, seasonal tendencies usually become a headwind in late October or early November. Further, the corn selling might have capitulated yesterday (at least for now). A corn bounce would likely make cattle longs think twice about their holdings. Accordingly, we think it is time to take a stab at the downside in live cattle. We wrote about this in yesterday's DeCarley Perspective; click here to review. Cattle futures are likely to struggle over the next month or so.

Newsletters

11/03/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Election Day Chart-Fest
In this edition of the DeCarley Perspective, we'll talk less and show more. They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so we'll let the charts do the talking. The DeCarley Perspective...Election Day Chart-Fest
10/30/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...A crypto brokerage was hacked; time to reflect on counterparty risk.
A crypto brokerage was hacked; time to reflect on counterparty risk.
10/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Livestock futures are high on grain fumes.
If you are trading cattle, you are trading corn. Over the last 30 trading days, live cattle futures have settled in the opposite direction of corn futures 79% of the time. In last week’s newsletter, we noted that speculator liquidation in corn could bring prices toward $4.60 or below. If you are trading cattle, you are trading corn. Over the last 30 trading days, live cattle futures have settled in the opposite direction of corn futures 79% of the time. In last week’s newsletter, we noted that speculator liquidation in corn could bring prices toward $4.60 or below.
10/08/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Everything you need to know about Single Stock Futures.
We are fielding quite a few inquiries about the newly listed single-stock futures. Because of limited liquidity, we can't currently trade these products via StoneX or other FCMs we clear through. But we hope that will change, and we want clients to understand why, and what needs to happen, for these products to be tradeable. Everything you need to know about Single Stock Futures.
10/05/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Same newsletter, more charts and comments.
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=199b79d4-c0e9-11f1-9660-55f2a66b3dcf&pt=campaign&t=1791224779&s=6d07a53aefa1aa490e66c9bc168422596266c4fb628461c2181c50e6b4106fea Same newsletter, more charts (we took a mulligan). Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
09/30/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?
We’ve been bearish on gold for quite some time and remain bearish overall. But the stars are aligning for what has generally been a high-probability setup for a relief rally, and we cannot ignore it. For starters, according to our friends at MRCI (a seasonal trading service), going long December gold on or about September 29 and holding through October 25 has been profitable in 12 of the last 15 years. Obviously, this is a tendency, not a guarantee, but the Indian festival and wedding season, combined with China’s Golden Week celebration, tends to boost the metal. Is gold setting up for a nice bounce?

Futures Chart Analysis

Crude Oil Daily
10-Year Note ~ Monthly
Gold ~ Daily
10-Year-Note ~ Monthly

Carley Garner X Feed

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November 6, 2026
The 2018 midterm market and the 2026 midterm market have an uncomfortable amount in common, and it starts with interest rates. In 2018, September and December rate hikes were blamed for a nearly 25% slide (about 3,000 to 2,300). We’ve already had the September 2026 hike, and FedWatch puts December at about 75%. A similar haircut from the highs puts the E-mini S&P near 6,000. The easy money of the Trump rally is probably already made. If 2018 is our guide, it gets much harder from here.
The 2018 midterm market and the 2026 midterm market have an uncomfortable amount in common, and it starts with interest rates.In 2018, September and December rate hikes were blamed for a nearly 25% slide (about 3,000 to 2,300). We’ve already had the September 2026 hike, and FedWatch puts December at
@ @carleygarner
November 6, 2026
Carley on RFD-TV Market Day Report: corn & soybeans near support ahead of WASDE, hog volatility as a bottoming process, cattle selloff getting overdone, and why she’s still cautious on stocks into next week.
Carley on RFD-TV Market Day Report: corn & soybeans near support ahead of WASDE, hog volatility as a bottoming process, cattle selloff getting overdone, and why she’s still cautious on stocks into next week. youtu.be/jtHxGlANfrA— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Nov 6, 2026
@ @carleygarner
November 5, 2026
GASP 🫤 😬 😮 #oil #energies #gas #gasprices
GASP 🫤 😬 😮 #oil#energies#gas#gasprices— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Nov 5, 2026
@ @carleygarner
November 5, 2026
Silver's chart is flashing a possible rally while Bitcoin slips below $80K. I joined @sws9876 on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close to talk silver, crypto, and whether prediction markets are becoming the new Wild West. #silver #bitcoin #futures
Silver's chart is flashing a possible rally while Bitcoin slips below $80K. I joined @sws9876 on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close to talk silver, crypto, and whether prediction markets are becoming the new Wild West. youtu.be/mTLPLTizri4#silver#bitcoin#futures— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Nov 5, 202
@ @carleygarner
November 5, 2026
Ironically, we needed the Democrats to take back control of the House and Senate to get oil prices to break down. We've seen WTI drop almost $20.00 per barrel in three days. I didn't have that on my 2026 Bingo card. #crudeoil #oil #energy #iranwar #commodities.
Ironically, we needed the Democrats to take back control of the House and Senate to get oil prices to break down. We've seen WTI drop almost $20.00 per barrel in three days. I didn't have that on my 2026 Bingo card. #crudeoil#oil#energy#iranwar#commodities.— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Nov
@ @carleygarner
November 4, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: This is who you're trading against. Good night traders.
This is who you're trading against. Good night traders. Video— @dee_fvg Nov 4, 2026
@ @dee_fvg
November 4, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Silver’s chart is signaling a potential rally, while Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000 raises concerns. Are crypto and prediction markets becoming the new Wild West? @carleygarner gives us her take with @sws9876. 🔗
Silver’s chart is signaling a potential rally, while Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000 raises concerns. Are crypto and prediction markets becoming the new Wild West? @carleygarner gives us her take with @sws9876.🔗 cdn.jwplayer.com/videos/Kw5o…— @CowGuyClose Nov 4, 2026
@ @CowGuyClose
November 4, 2026
RT by @carleygarner: Blue tidal wave. Break it down with Ted Thatcher,Jason Katz,Carley Garner,Rebecca Walser & Nancy Tengler. Tune to The Cow Guy Close RFD-TV from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @tedthatcher_ @JasonKatzUBS @carleygarner @rebeccawalser @ntengler @AshleePitzl @OfficialRFDTV @cowguyclose
Blue tidal wave. Break it down with Ted Thatcher,Jason Katz,Carley Garner,Rebecca Walser & Nancy Tengler. Tune to The Cow Guy Close RFD-TV from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @tedthatcher_@JasonKatzUBS@carleygarner@rebeccawalser@ntengler@AshleePitzl@OfficialRFDTV@cowguyclose— @ScottTheCowGuy Nov 4, 20
@ @ScottTheCowGuy
November 3, 2026
We rarely comment on silver, but this chart is hard to ignore. If you must play, look to the 100-ounce silver future (symbol SIC in the DeCarley Trader platform). It comes with a margin requirement of $537. The next step up is micro silver at 1,000 ounces, with a margin requirement of $5,352. However, despite being called micro, I saw small positions in the micro contract wreak havoc on relatively large accounts (six figures) in late-2025/early-2026, so don’t let the title lull you into complacency. Alternatively, you could consider a January silver $70 call for just 20 cents (symbol: ). If you want comments/charts/ideaas like this, open a trading account with DeCarley
We rarely comment on silver, but this chart is hard to ignore. If you must play, look to the 100-ounce silver future (symbol SIC in the DeCarley Trader platform). It comes with a margin requirement of $537. The next step up is micro silver at 1,000 ounces, with a margin requirement of $5,352. Howeve
@ @carleygarner
November 3, 2026
If you are a Bitcoin bull, the break below $80,000 is concerning. Does anyone else see the similarities between the cryptocurrency & prediction market phenomenon and the FOREX industry in the early 2000s? New markets operating like the Wild West, without government money-protection programs, formal exchange guarantees, and regulators light-years behind? Not to mention retail traders funding accounts with credit cards, and less-than-transparent trade matching, get-rich-quick schemes, etc.
If you are a Bitcoin bull, the break below $80,000 is concerning. Does anyone else see the similarities between the cryptocurrency & prediction market phenomenon and the FOREX industry in the early 2000s? New markets operating like the Wild West, without government money-protection programs, formal
@ @carleygarner

Cow Guy Close

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DeCarley Press

10/06/2026
If you missed our charts on Mad Money last night, here they are.
If you missed Off the Charts last night with @jimcramer on @MadMoneyOnCNBC, here is our chart analysis from the segment. Here is a link to the written version: https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=199b79d4-c0e9-11f1-9660-55f2a66b3dcf&pt=campaign&t=1791224779&s=6d07a53aefa1aa490e66c9bc168422596266c4fb628461c2181c50e6b4106fea
10/06/2026
A relief rally in gold? Carley talked to Bloomberg Television about it.
Carley joined Bloomberg Television's Open Interest yesterday to discuss a potential relief rally in gold as oil and yields come off. $GLD #gold #interestrates #crudeoil #oil
09/29/2026
Ditch the winter weather and come see us in Sarasota in December.
We will host an educational session at the upcoming Sarasota MoneyShow. We would love to see you there! You'll have the chance to hear outlooks from some of the biggest names in the industry, and it is a great time to get away from the cold weather.
09/29/2026
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom.
Negative headlines drive clicks and sell newsletters, but the crude oil situation isn't all doom and gloom. Carley joined Schwab's Alex Coffey to discuss crude oil. Check it out:
09/23/2026
The US dollar is steering the ship.
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/Y8UVNYCi-V0aodxGU Dollar weakness doesn't get enough credit for the stock market boom. If you ask a stock market analyst why the market is rising, he'll cite earnings per share and product innovation, but he won’t mention that dollar weakness has created an environment that supports higher stock prices. I believe the dollar is steering the ship. I talked about it with @ScottTheCowGuy on @OfficialRFDTV

Notices

09/10/2026
See us in Sarasota in December!
Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :) Looking for something to do between Thanksgiving and Christmas that doesn't involve shoveling snow or scraping ice? Join other industry veterans and me in Sarasota for the MoneyShow :) I am looking forward to seeing some of my friends there, including @JonathanHoenig, @scottymarkets , @tradertammy1 , @kmahnhw, @Stephanie_Link , @almanactrader , @MikeLeeStrategy , and others :)
07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 07/17/2026
Getting started with the DeCarley Trader futures and options trading platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/24/2026
Home Page: Navigating the DeCarley Trader Futures and Options Trading Home Page
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/27/2026
Charts/Quotes Page: Navigating Futures Quotes and Charts in the DeCarley Trader Platform
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/30/2026
Option Chain Page: Viewing and trading from the DeCarley Trader option chain.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/05/2026
News Page: Utilizing the News Feed page in the DeCarley Trader
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/14/2026
Option Spreads Page: An overview of the Option Spread Builder page in the DeCarley Trader platform.
DeCarley Trading

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner