Recommendations

06/21/2024
Strategy Idea...Long September Bean Calls.
Soybeans are testing a significant technical pivot area at a time in which volatility is low. This allows the bulls to buy limited-risk call options on the cheap. Of course, cheap doesn't mean easy. Options are eroding assets, so buying them requires accurate timing to avoid the peril of decay. It might be worth owning limited risk upside volatility in soybeans.
06/20/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish Christmas Wheat Spreads.
Wheat used to be a boring market, but since Russia invaded Ukraine and Mother Nature has gotten involved in the conflict, it's been a wild ride. The chart and seasonality suggest the next move might be higher. Not only are wheat futures oversold, but a close over the multi-month pivot line would suggest a bottom is in. Further, wheat has been under pressure due to harvest, but that generally works itself out in late-June or mid-July. Coaster Appears to be Ascending from the Trough
06/18/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish gold exposure looking for support to hold.
In a nutshell, gold is sitting on trendline support. if it holds, we believe the market will make its way up to the monthly trendline near $2600. If it fails, we could see prices drop sharply by about 10% to the next support level. We are leaning toward the former but cannot forget about the latter. For those looking to reload in gold, this could be the time.
06/12/2024
Strategy Idea...Hedge stock portfolio risk, or speculate on a correction.
The monthly, weekly, and daily charts suggest that 5450 is a pivotal price. Should the S&P 500 melt above it, it is hard to say where it stops; some analyst projections call for 5600, but to be honest, we don't see any technical or fundamental support for such a price. The projection is akin to throwing a dart at a chart to predict how much higher it might go simply because of higher momentum. It is now or never for the bears; here is a way to play it with room for error.
06/11/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy Canadian Dollar Calls.
The Canadian dollar has been hovering in the low to high 0.700s for almost a year. Except for the depths of the 2015/2016 and the Covid collapse in 2020, the Canadian hasn't traded below 0.7000 in the 2000s. The two noted exceptions to this resulted in temporary dips to 0.6800. Thus, we like playing the upside with limited-risk ventures. We rarely dabble in the Canadian dollar, but the circumstances warrant it.
06/05/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Listen to what Dr. Copper has to say.
For some reason, when things are good, we all point to copper prices to confirm our bullish bias. Yet, when the copper market shows signs of weakness, we shrug it off as an obsolete indication of economic health. In the good ol’ days, the industrial metal was referred to as Dr. Copper because it was a bellwether of economic growth. Over time, that narrative has proven itself to be merely mildly accurate. Nevertheless, the market can and does talk to us if we take the time to listen and recognize the tendency for stocks to lag copper tops and bottoms. We believe the abrupt reversal in copper could be a warning signal for the stock rally. For some reason, when things are good, we all point to copper prices to confirm our bullish bias. Yet, when the copper market shows signs of weakness, we shrug it off as an obsolete indication of economic health. In the good ol’ days, the industrial metal was referred to as Dr. Copper because it was a bellwether of economic growth. Over time, that…

Newsletters

06/18/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Heavy Metal Chart Fest.
Few markets can deliver the caliber of pain the precious metals do to buy-and-hold investors. Despite posting gains on a long enough time horizon, gold and silver tend to make sudden and often irrational price moves after prolonged periods of consolidation. Heavy Metal Chart Fest.
05/28/2024
Monthly view of the S&P 500 and Treasuries
Most developed nations have seen their risk-taking rewarded with perpetually increasing stock prices. Of course, there have been drawdowns and even a lost decade or two, but the equity markets are designed to go up over time, and they have done exactly that. As a result, the argument that _timing the market_ is far less important than _time in the market_ has always held. Yet, the basic principle of finance is still true: reward can only be possible with risk. Moreover, the relationship is sloped in a way that a higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. Time in the market matters more than timing the market but...
05/15/2024
If "don't fight the Fed" were a picture.
We are generally optimistic, and we know it pays to be bullish on equities far more often than to be bearish. Yet, we have a sneaking suspicion that we are on the eve of a risk event in which the piper must be paid for all of the creative and aggressive economic stimulus that has occurred since the financial crisis. Is 2024 the new 2007/2008?
04/30/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Extreme Currency Valuations have a Shelf Life.
The Japanese currency has been in a freefall against the US dollar for weeks, leaving the Yen at its lowest valuation since the 1990s. While the Bank of Japan is known for intervening in the currency markets, the Central Bank has been noticeably quiet. Extreme Currency Valuations have a Shelf Life
04/17/2024
The ES can't hold a bid, this correction isn't over.
The aggressive stimulus and liquidity injection of 2020 have left us with an environment of aggressive speculation in which market participants chase prices higher without regard to risk. Just like too many dollars chasing too few goods caused inflation, assets have increased in value as too many investment dollars make their way into a handful of assets. The US stock market has always increased steadily over time, but the slope of gains forged in recent years is unnatural. Further, higher interest rates have created competition for investment dollars; Treasury buyers are paid 4.5% to 5.0% interest to wait for the next shoe to drop, at which time they could benefit from price appreciation. Warren Buffet referred to this market cycle as a casino; I live in Vegas and know the house always wins. In the big picture, stocks are expensive, and bonds are cheap.
04/05/2024
The S&P 500 has broken some bullish patterns.
The equity market has outperformed the most bullish projections, but it has also had some help. It is difficult to justify current valuations with fundamentals; although the economy performs well on most metrics, corporate earnings are overpriced. We've noticed similar dysfunction in some commodities;the most glaring example is cocoa. If the trend changes, there will be signs.

Futures Chart Analysis

NQ~Monthly
ES~Weekly S&P 500
ZN vs ES ~ Monthly
ZW ~ Monthly (Bitcoin Comparison)

DeCarley Press

04/30/2024
Can the Yen find a bottom?
Extreme currency valuations tend to have a shelf life. We talked about this on Ausbiz TV last night (Tuesday morning in Sydney). Today’s Yen weakness feels as unsustainable as the 2011 Yen strength was. Extreme currency valuations tend to have a shelf life. We talked about this on Ausbiz TV last night (Tuesday morning in Sydney). Today’s Yen weakness feels as unsustainable as the 2011 Yen strength was.
04/05/2024
Talking oil and gold on Schwab Network
Crude oil futures are overstretched, but the big picture is probably higher for longer. Carley discussed this and the gold breakout on Schwab Network. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
03/27/2024
What happens if oil breaks above $84.00?
Futures and options broker Carley Garner joined Nicole Petallides on the Schwab network to discuss the implications of a break above $84.00 in the front-month futures contract. Seasonality is supportive of the oil rally, and momentum above $84.00 could lead to prices in the vicinity of $100. Click Here to Watch the Video
02/02/2024
Crude oil, gold, currencies, and more on the Schwab Network
Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis. Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis.
01/31/2024
Will crude oil see $100 again?
Analysts are making bold bearish calls in crude oil, but futures broker, Carley Garner, has a differing opinion. Scott Shellady and Carley talked about it on the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE SEGMENT

Notices

06/13/2024
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
04/25/2024
IMPORTANT INFO REGARDING THE MIGRATION TO MY.STONEX.COM
ALL CLIENTS WILL BE MOVED FROM THE LEGACY MYACCOUNT.GAINFUTURES.COM TO THE MY.STONEX.COM PORTAL OVER THE WEEKEND
03/28/2024
Good Friday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Friday, March 29th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office tomorrow but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

06/22/2024
Tesla internal data shows company has slashed at least 14% of workforce this year
Tesla internal records viewed by CNBC suggest the company employs just over 121,000 people, including temporary workers.
06/21/2024
Regulators hit Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America over living will plans
The living wills are a key Federal Reserve and FDIC exercise mandated in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.
06/21/2024
The stock market is in its longest stretch without a 2% sell-off since the financial crisis
Wall Street's rise to record highs has come with very little volatility.

Futures Market News

Posted on 06/21/2024
Forward Look: Will PCE confirm weakness in CPI and PPI? 6/21/24
CME Group
Posted on 06/21/2024
As the quarter comes to a close, prepare for new crop contracts, 6/21/24
CME Group
Posted on 06/21/2024
Why were the livestock markets a mixed bag to end the week? 6/21/24
CME Group
Posted on 06/21/2024
Hot national weather continues to drive demand for natural gas. 6/21/24
CME Group
Posted on 06/21/2024
Silver ends up almost directionless for the week. 6/21/24
CME Group
Posted on 06/21/2024
The Euro hit a new low since May 2. Can it continue lower? 6/21/24
CME Group