DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

03/19/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy Yen calls for a bearish oil play.

If you want to play oil without the elevated risk... look at Yen options. If you want to play oil without the elevated risk... look at Yen options.

03/10/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...The art of chaos.

I hesitate to write or say anything about the oil market because it has made a fool of me, and of others who are smarter than I am. March and April have always been a hotbed of volatility in the energy markets. Some of the most notable oil moves were born during these two months. Notable examples include the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, the 2016 commodity bear market that ended in capitulation in oil, well into the $20.00s, the COVID fallout of 2020, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which spiked oil to $130.00 per barrel. The art of chaos.

03/10/2026

Strategy Idea...Bullish 10-Year Note Plays

03/05/2026

Strategy Idea...Bull Call Spreads in Wheat

Unlike corn, which has held its downtrend line, the wheat market is trying to break out. The initial penetration of the downtrend line pushed prices to $6.00, after which the market fell back to retest it (previously resistance, now acting as support). If wheat continues to hold this line, we should see prices take another shot at the low $6.00s. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

03/03/2026

Strategy Idea...Sell corn futures with insurance.

The US hasn't bombed China, but they have attacked the country indirectly by removing its sources of cheap, sanctioned oil. This forces China to use petrodollars to purchase at least some of its energy needs. In turn, it puts upward pressure on the dollar, and, in theory, this would work against most commodity prices. With that said, we have upset our largest grain buyer, and corn futures are at their downtrend line. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

02/27/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy more crude oil puts.

As always, everyone wants to buy crude oil calls amid Middle East uncertainty. As always, everyone wants to buy crude oil calls amid Middle East uncertainty.

03/18/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.

Although the commodity world has turned its attention to the energy sector, we wanted to provide an updated chart on the previous flash-in-the-pan commodity: gold. While I was scratching my head while gold rallied wildly in January, others are trying to figure out how gold is moving lower on news of a fresh war in the Middle East. This is textbook buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action. However, not everyone knew US and Israeli bombs would be dropping in Iran, but price action suggests someone probably did. Or at least they had a reason to believe it was a real possibility. For instance, China hoarded both gold and oil going into the conflict. As they say, markets, and therefore charts, are all-knowing. Even if the news isn’t public yet, there are those behind the scenes preparing for it. By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.

03/12/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...We don’t know what will happen next, but we have history as a guide.

We will keep this newsletter short and sweet. Just in case you haven’t noticed, nobody knows what will happen in the markets or on the political stage. Everyone is guessing. However, we can at least use history as our guide. Oil shocks have historically been associated with stock market weakness. We don’t know what will happen next, but we have history as a guide.

03/04/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...On the way down, $75.00 oil was too cheap; on the way up, it is a “shock.”

Perception of price is extremely relative. Just 18 months ago, as oil was slicing through $75.00 on its way to $55.00, the bulls on X and television were convinced that oil couldn’t drop below the cost of production, which was assumed to be near $70.00. On the way down, $75.00 oil was too cheap; on the way up, it is a “shock.”

02/24/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Crude Reality: The Rally is Artificially Manufactured by the Iran Controversy.

The oil market is on an upswing, emboldening the dip buyers to believe the bottom is in. They might be right, but the odds are against them. We’ve seen at least six rallies of this nature since oil peaked in March 2022, each accompanied by a threat of supply disruption. However, each of them was also accompanied by the reality that few, if any, barrels of oil were taken off the market. Crude Reality: The Rally is Artificially Manufactured by the Iran Controversy

02/12/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Treasuries have suffered the largest and longest bear market in history. Is it over?

In March 2020, the world was seemingly coming to an end. The world faced the risk of a perceived population-draining pandemic, and governments were closing entire economies in hopes of stopping the spread of COVID-19. In hindsight, this was probably an overreaction, but at the time, there were more questions than answers. Treasuries have suffered the largest and longest bear market in history. Is it over?

02/06/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Will volatility in metals and cryptocurrencies spill over into stock indices?

It has been my experience that when a few markets begin to break, volatility bleeds into others Will volatility in metals and cryptocurrencies spill over into stock indices?

03/12/2026

Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.

This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.

03/12/2026

The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.

Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

02/26/2026

Scott and Carley discuss crude oil and the World Uncertainty Index

We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out. We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out.

01/15/2026

What's going on in silver?

I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

12/19/2025

Is the government helping or hurting farmers and markets?

Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP

03/19/2026

Trump signals DOJ should continue Powell probe, complicating Warsh Fed nomination

Powell has accused the DOJ of investigating him in retaliation for his refusal to lower interest rates as much or as quickly as Trump has demanded.

03/20/2026

U.S. tech execs smuggled Nvidia chips to China, prosecutors say

The U.S. government has been trying to crack down on illegal shipments of top-tier Nvidia artificial intelligence chips to China.

03/19/2026

Copper joins gold in broad commodities sell-off. There's a worrying reason behind it

After major rallies, metals were under pressure on Thursday as rising oil prices increased both inflation and growth worries.

02/12/2026

IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING OUR AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK

Carley has been offered an opportunity she couldn't refuse. She will be hosting the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV from their studio in Nashville on Friday, February 20th, and Monday, February 23rd. Scott needs a break! Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones for a few days in late February.

02/12/2026

Presidents' Day Holiday Trading Schedule 2026

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16th, in observance of Presidents' Day. For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16th, in observance of Presidents' Day.