Recommendations

04/18/2024
Strategy Idea...Call option ladders in August Gold
The gold market took off while few were watching. We suspect there are a lot of people waiting for a dip that might not come. However, we've seen what happens to traders chasing gold higher; it works about once or twice per decade but is otherwise a miserable strategy. We don't think the gold run is over, but the downside risk is substantial. Here is a way to play that.
04/18/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish oil option spreads.
For those on the sidelines wishing they were in on the oil rally, this might be a chance to get long without chasing higher prices. We've seen oil break several dollars from recent highs despite tension overseas. Trendline support was tested successfully this morning, and we continue to operate under the premise that $100.00 oil is possible. Buy the dip in crude oil?
04/16/2024
Strategy Idea...Sugar call options.
In 2020, following the government-mandated COVID shutdowns, sugar bottomed just under 10 cents. Thus, today's prices are nearly 20 cents, which isn't historically cheap. Yet, we've been as high as 28 cents in late 2023, and other softs, such as cocoa and coffee, are trading at unfathomably elevated prices, which might pull sugar out of the hole. It seems to be worth having a long call option in place to capture a potential rally from here. Sugar might be a sweet "buy"
04/09/2024
Strategy Idea...July Copper Butterflies.
According to MRCI, copper futures have traded lower (10 cents on average) from April 14th through May 15th in 12 of the last 15 years. With the market overbought and a CPI report due in the morning, we think it makes sense to start thinking about the possibility of a seasonal pullback. That said, keeping risk low and limited is ideal, given the widespread dysfunction in many financial and commodity markets. Copper probably can't continue at this pace.
04/08/2024
Strategy Idea...July lean hog risk reversals.
The lean hog market has put together an impressive rally in the face of struggling cattle prices. The fundamental backdrop is supportive: a firm cash market, good demand, and fewer hogs. This time of year can produce large hog sell-offs; here is how to get a foot in the door.
04/02/2024
Strategy Idea...Getting back into the long side of Treasuries.
The Treasury market of 2024 has been far less volatile than that of 2022/2023, but there is still enough uncertainty built into pricing to create attractive option spread opportunities. We continue to believe volatility will decrease in Treasuries (it is supposed to be a dull market), and we suspect technical support will hold. Further, there could be a flight-to-quality bid if the stock rally takes a break. Bonds are range trading, and we are at the bottom of the range.

Newsletters

04/17/2024
The ES can't hold a bid, this correction isn't over.
The aggressive stimulus and liquidity injection of 2020 have left us with an environment of aggressive speculation in which market participants chase prices higher without regard to risk. Just like too many dollars chasing too few goods caused inflation, assets have increased in value as too many investment dollars make their way into a handful of assets. The US stock market has always increased steadily over time, but the slope of gains forged in recent years is unnatural. Further, higher interest rates have created competition for investment dollars; Treasury buyers are paid 4.5% to 5.0% interest to wait for the next shoe to drop, at which time they could benefit from price appreciation. Warren Buffet referred to this market cycle as a casino; I live in Vegas and know the house always wins. In the big picture, stocks are expensive, and bonds are cheap.
04/05/2024
The S&P 500 has broken some bullish patterns.
The equity market has outperformed the most bullish projections, but it has also had some help. It is difficult to justify current valuations with fundamentals; although the economy performs well on most metrics, corporate earnings are overpriced. We've noticed similar dysfunction in some commodities;the most glaring example is cocoa. If the trend changes, there will be signs.
04/04/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Crude oil has Rallied without the Help of Speculators or Chinese Demand.
The oil market has quietly assembled an impressive $15.00 per barrel rally. The lack of fanfare can likely be attributed to the lack of volatility. There were days in 2022 when oil jumped or collapsed from $10.00 to $15.00 in a single trading session, yet the run from $70.00 to $85.00 took about three months. These slow grinding rallies are generally not to be sold into (been there and done that, don't do it). Crude oil has Rallied without the Help of Speculators or Chinese Demand
03/28/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Cocoa futures have gone mainstream.
Since the early 1980s, cocoa has been arguably the most boring commodity; until now, the price of cocoa hovered between $1,500 and $3,000 per ton, with only a few temporary breaches of this range. More recently, cocoa futures spent a decade mostly trading between $2,000 and $3,000. Thus, the market was well overdue for a supply scare. However, even the most bullish of bulls probably didn’t see $10,000 cocoa on the horizon. I have some strong and controversial opinions on the matter. Cocoa futures have gone mainstream.
03/19/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Nothing lasts forever, not even the bear market in the Yen.
The Japanese Yen has been in a prolonged bear market. Seventeen years of wildly dovish Bank of Japan monetary policy has resulted in a thirteen-year bear market in the country’s currency. For the first time in almost two decades, the BOJ has taken steps toward normalizing interest rates by increasing its target short-term rate to .1%. Nothing lasts forever, not even the bear market in the Yen.
03/06/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...We don't think gold is bull trapping.
Precious metals habitually spend years in a trading range only to forge large and explosive rallies when market participants least expect it. As a result, sidelined traders wishing they were in the market are susceptible to FOMO buying, forcing prices to levels that previously seemed out of reach. We believe gold is finally really to make such a move. While the world has been focused on Bitcoin and Nvidia stock, gold has reached a fresh all-time high! We don't think gold is bull trapping.

Futures Chart Analysis

NQ~Monthly
ES~Weekly S&P 500
ZN vs ES ~ Monthly
ZW ~ Monthly (Bitcoin Comparison)

DeCarley Press

04/05/2024
Talking oil and gold on Schwab Network
Crude oil futures are overstretched, but the big picture is probably higher for longer. Carley discussed this and the gold breakout on Schwab Network. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
03/27/2024
What happens if oil breaks above $84.00?
Futures and options broker Carley Garner joined Nicole Petallides on the Schwab network to discuss the implications of a break above $84.00 in the front-month futures contract. Seasonality is supportive of the oil rally, and momentum above $84.00 could lead to prices in the vicinity of $100. Click Here to Watch the Video
02/02/2024
Crude oil, gold, currencies, and more on the Schwab Network
Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis. Futures and options broker, Carley Garner, joined Schwab Network this morning to explore the landscape in crude oil, gold, and currencies. The discussion included weakness in Chinese commodity demand, OPEC production cuts, and seasonal analysis.
01/31/2024
Will crude oil see $100 again?
Analysts are making bold bearish calls in crude oil, but futures broker, Carley Garner, has a differing opinion. Scott Shellady and Carley talked about it on the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE SEGMENT
01/16/2024
Are the stars aligning for the crude oil bulls? They appear to be.
The last four out of five times crude oil has tested the weekly trendline in the first quarter with Williams %R and Slow Stochastics oversold, the market has rallied sharply. The only exception to this was the COVID-19 shutdown energy fallout. If you missed my Schwab Network hit this morning, here is a link to the archive - https://decarleytrading.com/learn-to-trade-commodities/982-are-the-stars-aligning-for-crude-oil-bulls-carley-talked-about-it-on-schwab-network

Notices

03/28/2024
Good Friday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Friday, March 29th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office tomorrow but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
02/13/2024
1099s are available in the Gain Reports Portal and the Zaner360
You can now download your 2023 1099 reports when logged into the Zaner360 platform by going to "Reports", then "Statements", then "1099s".
02/06/2024
Presidents' Day Trading Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday, February 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday, February 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

04/20/2024
The Bitcoin network completes the fourth-ever ‘halving’ of rewards to miners
The Bitcoin network completed its fourth "halving," which reduces miners' rewards and helps the cryptocurrency maintain its digital gold quality.
04/20/2024
VW workers in Tennessee vote to join UAW in historic win for Detroit union
Volkswagen workers in Tennessee have voted in favor of the United Auto Workers — marking the union's first successful organizing drive of a foreign automaker.
04/20/2024
Here's what 12 European Central Bank members said about interest rates this week
The ECB has become "the central bank to be followed," one central bank governor said.

Futures Market News

Posted on 04/19/2024
Soybeans were higher off of better Export Sales. 4/19/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/19/2024
Cattle on Feed report uncertainty lead to mixed markets. 4/19/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/19/2024
Nasdaq posts worst week since November 2022, 4/19/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/19/2024
2-Year Note Futures are holding a gain today. 4/19/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/19/2024
Yen traded down again for 4th session out of past 5, 4/19/24
CME Group
Posted on 04/19/2024
Gold closes higher again and near record highs, 4/19/24
CME Group