I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
The oil market isn't known for quiet bottoms. Instead, a significant bottom and subsequent bull market is only made possible by a capitulation in price and sentiment. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady discussed this on Cow Guy Close, which aired on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO
We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.
Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps
In 2020, investors chose Treasury bonds as their risk-off asset of choice. They couldn't get enough Treasuries, which were yielding less than a percent, in their portfolios. Mass accumulation of Treasuries to hedge economic and political uncertainty was the most popular narrative and trade. However, five years later, it proved to be the worst trade imaginable. In fact, although they intended to hedge risk, they were actually running into a burning house. We suspect the 2025 gold rally will eventually suffer the same fate. Here are the major takeaways, with a link to the video below -
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show. Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show.
Carley had the opportunity to discuss her commodity market background and the futures and options brokerage business with @cybertradingu. Topics covered include stock indices, crude oil, precious metals, and other financial assets.
I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today. I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today.
Carley Garner joined Alex Coffey of the Schwab Network to share her views on the oil market, which she doesn't find bullish. Without an OPEC put in place, and demand waning, oil prices could fall under $50.00 per barrel. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP.
If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.! If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.!
Carley Garner shared her chart analysis on popular financial and commodity markets such as crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, Treasuries, stock indices, and the US dollar index. CLICK HERE TO VIEW
The masses are buying gold and selling Treasuries. Are they wrong? History and math suggest that they might be. The masses are buying gold and selling Treasuries. Are they wrong? History and math suggest that they might be.
Carley joined Chris Beers of NTD News to discuss the oil market and how enhanced sanctions on Iran and countries buying oil from Iran might impact pricing. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
Did we drain the SPR so quickly that we damaged the infrastructure? Was it worth it? Perhaps it was; the US government sold the oil at an average price of $95.00 and now has the opportunity to slowly refill it at much lower prices. This was the topic of the hour yesterday with Scott Shellady on RFD-TV.
Either Carley has lost her marbles, or this is a generational opportunity in U.S. duration bonds. Scott Shellady and Carley discussed this on Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE CLIP
Has crude oil bottomed? It might have, what happens at $65 matters! CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE SEGMENT
Since the March 2022 peak in oil, rallies have failed. Will this one be different, we doubt it. Today, I talked with @AllAgAllDay on @OfficialRFDTVabout what happened in 2014 and 2020 following a similar three-year period of lower highs.
There is a lot of HOT money in the cattle market. There are more net long futures now than ever before. Also, the open interest in the feeder futures is at an all-time-high of 80,000, the previous record was 60,000. Everyone wants to be long at these prices except for the consumer. The risk of being long and wrong is substantial. Link to video clip is in the comments. There is a lot of HOT money in the cattle market. There are more net long futures now than ever before. Also, the open interest in the feeder futures is at an all-time-high of 80,000, the previous record was 60,000. Everyone wants to be long at these prices except for the consumer. The risk of being long and wrong is substantial. Link to video clip is in the comments.
Carley Garner will be presenting at the annual Women in Trading Online Education Event!
Yesterday, Tommy Grisafi and I discussed corn and cattle on the Cow Guy Close. Aside from the risk of demand destruction from China over tariffs, the corn market is pointing higher. Call options are cheap! Yesterday, Tommy Grisafi and I discussed corn and cattle on the Cow Guy Close. Aside from the risk of demand destruction from China over tariffs, the corn market is pointing higher. Call options are cheap!
Oil reversed from a nearly 3-year trendline today. Will the rally be liquidated? Carley Garner, futures and options broker at DeCarley Trading discussed it with Scott Shellady on the Cow Guy Close. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
Carley Garner and Scott Shellady spoke about the relationship between gold and the "Trump trade" on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close. Garner spoke about the challenges of trading markets into and after a risky event such as the Presidential Election. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady spoke about the relationship between gold and the "Trump trade" on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close. Garner spoke about the challenges of trading markets into and after a risky event such as the Presidential Election.
