Wheat Futures Surge to Three-Year Highs as Black Sea War Risk Escalates

Wheat futures (ZW) have pushed to fresh three-year highs this week, with the rally accelerating after Russia signaled it intends to intensify attacks on Ukraine following the breakdown of peace talks. Combined with tightening global supply fundamentals from reduced EU and US production, the market has seen a sharp return of war premium, sending prices from the 700 area (Daily Level 4) through 760 (Daily Level 3) in a matter of sessions. Technically, the market remains in a well-defined uptrend that has respected the yearly VWAP since January, and price is now testing levels last seen in 2022. The coming weeks will likely hinge on whether the geopolitical premium holds, with 700 and 760 serving as the pivotal levels for the next directional move.Wheat Harvest by Heiko Janowski via Unsplash