ECL ~ Monthly
I'm not bullish on oil, but I recognize that we have a problem with the May futures expiration coinciding with peak event risk. We are following the previous bear cycle in reverse. The initial fracking sell-off was followed by a 62% rally, then a stunning decline to new lows 4 years later (the front month, May, went negative just prior to expiration). The rally from the 2020 low ran through 2022, then retraced by 62%. If we are following the 2020 pattern in reverse, we will top out 4 years later (now'ish) in an explosive new high. We don't think this high will occur in the back months, but the May contract might see a massive short squeeze pulling it into the $140.00/$150.00 area. I hope I am wrong. #crude #crudeoil #oil #commodities #futures #iranwar #straitofhormuz