2 / 24
Crude vs. Treasuries
We know what oil shocks do to the stock market, and it is playing out as history has suggested. The Treasury market reaction to higher energy prices often comes in two phases. First, Treasuries sell off (higher yields) to accommodate higher inflation expectations, but eventually they tend to rally (lower yields) as investors realize they need a safe haven from stocks. The only time this wasn't true was from 2022 onward. In that particular cycle, investors turned to gold as their preferred safe-haven. However, with the precious metals trading weaker alongside stocks, US bonds might finally come back into favor. #crudeoil #oil #oilshock #bonds #interestrates #inflation #wti #energymarket #war #iranwar