ECL ~ Monthly
I've mentioned the possibility of $15.00 crude oil in the coming year or two during recent media appearances, and am getting some feedback suggesting it is an absurd number. This is the chart I am getting it from. During the last three oil bear markets, once prices dipped below $65.00, it was a slow-motion train wreck followed by capitulation that brought prices to $32.00 (GFC), then $26.00 (historical commodity bear), then finally $20.00 (COVID crash). Oil doesn't bottom when it should, reasonably or fundamentally. It bottoms when nobody in the world believes it will ever go up again. When we start hearing analysts say "lower for longer," we might have an oil bottom. Lastly, I am not saying we are 100% going to $15.00, but I am saying we should be open to the idea because that is exactly how the previous cycles ended. Once a washout occurs, it sets the table for a massive bull market built on dwindling investment dollars into new infrastructure and increased demand for energy to fuel AI.