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GF ~ Monthly
The current narrative is "These are the tightest supplies since the 1950s/60s, and with inflation adjustments, we should be much higher." But commodities don't normally work that way; as time passes, we get better at producing, keeping the price mostly under pressure. Also, the tight supply story is based on a per-head count, not the weight of the animals, which is much larger today than ever. Lastly, I heard the same overwhelming stories in 2014; this is how that ended. If you are a cattle rancher with price exposure, the risk is not in hedging too early. Rather, the real risk is hedging too late. If the dam breaks, it will be hard to chase prices lower.