On this episode of The Futures Rundown, host Mark Longo welcomes back Brett Friedman of Winhall Risk Analytics and OptionMetrics for a deep dive into one of the strangest stories in the futures markets: crude oil's surprisingly underwhelming response to a major geopolitical conflict.
With dire supply warnings and plenty of doom-and-gloom predictions, many expected crude to explode higher. Instead, the rally has repeatedly struggled to live up to the hype. Brett compares the current environment with previous oil-market disruptions, including the historic volatility of 2020, and explains why this latest episode hasn't come close to matching those extremes.
We also discuss:
- Why crude oil hasn't behaved the way many fundamental analysts expected
- The unusual volatility picture in WTI
- What's driving heating oil and gasoline
- Why gold and silver have fallen out of the market spotlight
- The return of the AI trade and the "most hated" equity rally
- What's happening in rates and the Fed-watching game
- Natural gas and the strange predictability of seasonal trading
- The steepening VIX futures curve
- Why palladium may have attracted the wrong crowd
- Whether traders are using the VIX the wrong way
- And much more