S&P 500 and Dow futures rallied on rate cut hopes. 11/25/25

The Dow and E-mini S&P 500 futures staged a significant intraday turnaround to close sharply higher as the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut jumped to 85%. Small-cap strength was notable, with the Russell rallying approximately 7% over the last week, supported by speculation regarding future Fed leadership. On the economic front, the Conference Board index dropped to its lowest level since April, while ADP data signaled an accelerating pace of job losses. In the derivatives space, put volume remained elevated. Bitcoin futures tested the 86,000 level.

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