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It is impossible to keep up with fundamentals in oil; the story changes daily. Just last night, the President posted on Truth Social, which required a lot of creative interpretation. But if we assume that markets are all-knowing and that some members of society receive inside information before we do, the chart is our only reliable guide.
The oil market has carved out the mother of all trading ranges. The top of the range is currently near $110 per barrel, and the low end of the channel is near $80.00. Just like the bulls didn't want to see the rally rejected by $110, the bears won't want to see the selling reversed by dip buyers near $80.
As long as prices stay below the pivot of about $100/$99, we should continue lower to $80. If we break above $100/$99, we probably have enough momentum for another trendline test, but inclining trendlines move higher over time, so the next time we test it might be closer to $115.