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🇨🇳 China Corn Imports: Despite recent tariff relief, US corn is still priced out of China, with imports projected to fall to 3.5mmt and the US supplying just 900,000mt vs. 1.2mmt each from Brazil and Argentina. 📉 Negative import margins and a 5–8mmt jump in China’s domestic production limit upside, though Reuters reports China bought 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans, the first since the Sept 24th Trump/Xi meeting. 🫘
🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest reached 33% and soybeans 46%, both behind the five-year average and marking the slowest weekly pace since 2019. 🌧️ Iowa and Nebraska are furthest behind, while winter wheat planting hit 51% in its slowest week on record. 🌾
🇧🇷 Sorghum Competition: Brazil has more than doubled sorghum output to ~6mmt and shipped its first-ever cargo to China in August, with up to 2.4mmt expected to ship by the end of October. ⚠️ Meanwhile, US sorghum production is forecast to drop 33%, and exports to China have plunged from over $2 billion a decade ago to just $86 million in 2025. 📦
📊 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn held steady near $4.83/bu while Nov26 soybeans slipped 4¢ to ~$12.84/bu, both pressured by advancing harvest. 🌾 Wheat closed lower on technical selling and spillover weakness, with traders shrugging off new Black Sea vessel attacks. ⚓
🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections fell short of expectations at 1.1mmt, though still 27% ahead of last year, with China taking about 59% of the week’s total. 🌽 Corn came in strong at 1.3mmt (+5.3% YTD), while wheat lagged at 304,660mt, down 35% from last year. 📉