Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 Soybeans surge on China demand — Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23¢ to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington 🇺🇸🇨🇳.
📊 USDA WASDE Day — Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and only modest reductions to soybeans. Corn ending stocks are projected to fall sharply while wheat stocks edge higher, both domestically and globally 🌽🌾.
🛢️ Crude oil rockets higher — Brent surged 6.3% to top $107/bbl and WTI jumped 6.7% above $102/bbl, both hitting highs not seen since mid-May, as Middle East attacks disrupted export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the US-Iran conflict could drag past the midterms, while gas prices climbed to $4.28/gal ⛽🔥.
📈 Inflation heats up — August PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, driven largely by a 4.2% jump in energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike, with the CPI report due out this morning 💵📉.
⛽ Ethanol update — Weekly production slipped 1% to 1.1M barrels/day, even as stocks climbed to a seasonal high of 25.19M barrels. Corn Belt margins strengthened, ranging from 5¢ negative to 40¢ positive 🌽🏭.
🚢 Flash sales to China — USDA confirmed 272,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 206,500mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. Check the China soybean purchase tracker below for the full picture 🇨🇳📦.
🌦️ Drought & weather watch — Rain eased drought in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while dry heat worsened conditions across Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma. NOAA confirmed summer 2026 was the hottest on record for the US, with August alone averaging a record 75.6°F 🌡️🌵.
🥇 Kalshi breaks new ground — The prediction platform launched gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval — the agency's first nod for a non-crypto perpetual. Traditional exchanges like CME are pushing back hard against the move 🥈⚖️.