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🌊 Super El Niño Watch: US forecasters put the odds at 83% that the developing El Niño ranks among the strongest on record, raising concerns about heat, drought, and excess rain in major growing regions. In Brazil, dryness in the Center-West and north could delay soybean planting and hurt the second-crop corn that follows.
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Cuts: IKAR lowered Russia’s total grain crop to 137mmt and wheat to 88mmt, while trimming wheat exports to 42mmt from 43.5mmt. Most shipments are being rerouted to Baltic terminals, since Black Sea and Azov ports remain closed due to the war.
📈 Markets Recap: Dec26 corn gained about 3 cents to $4.83 on short-covering, while Nov26 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to $12.88 on expectations of a record US crop. Chicago wheat edged higher and KC wheat ticked lower as traders watched Black Sea shipping disruptions.
🇨🇳 China Soybean Outlook: China’s Ag Ministry cut its soybean production estimate 2.8% to 20.36mmt and slashed stocks 25% to 1.75mmt. China is projected to import 115mmt this year, yet USDA hasn’t reported a flash sale to China since September 24th.
⚡ Energy Ceasefire Doubts: President Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy said he learned of it through the media, and Russia struck an energy facility Monday. WTI crude is trading near $92/bbl, and national diesel averages $6.28, down from the record $6.53 set September 21st.