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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 NOPA August Crush Data – US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. 📉
📈 Grains Rally – Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, with corn and wheat riding the spillover higher. 🌽🌾 Wheat also got a boost from hopes of Black Sea de-escalation.
⛽ Diesel Export Ban Talk – Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated banning diesel exports as US prices hit a record $6.27/gallon, though the Trump administration hasn't signed on. 🚛 Critics doubt a ban would meaningfully lower prices, and some lawmakers are pushing a federal diesel tax suspension instead.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Tariff Talks – The US and China are negotiating tariff cuts on ~$30 billion in trade, including agricultural goods, just a week before Xi's visit to meet President Trump. 🤝 Lower tariffs could spark fresh Chinese soybean buying, a welcome boost as US crushers face tight Q4 supplies.
🌧️ Canadian Wheat Harvest Delays – Persistent rain has stalled what was shaping up to be a record Canadian wheat crop, with Saskatchewan only 27% harvested (vs. a 58% average) and Alberta at 21% (vs. 44%). ❄️ No freeze is expected until late November, but every wet day raises the risk of quality losses.
💹 Treasury Yields Spike – The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, driven by surging oil prices and inflation fears tied to Middle East tensions. 🏦 AI-fueled corporate borrowing and rising government debt are adding extra upward pressure ahead of the Fed's rate decision.