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🌽 Corn futures tumbled Wednesday after USDA pegged September 1 stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from a year ago and well above every trade guess. 📉 Dec26 corn plunged about 21 cents to $5.01, while soybean and wheat stocks both came in below expectations but still couldn't stop beans and wheat from slipping lower.
📊 USDA will now have to "solve" for that 2.095 billion bushel old crop corn carryout in the October 9th WASDE, after demand was overstated by roughly 232 million bushels. 🐄 Most of the cut will likely come from Feed and Residual Use, which could drop from 6.350 to as low as 6.118 billion bushels.
💵 Republicans are pushing to include roughly $11 billion in new direct farm aid in a proposed defense spending package. ⏳ Even if it passes, checks likely won't reach farmers until spring 2027, pushing total US farm payments this year to about $55 billion.
🌧️ More heavy rain is hitting eastern Iowa this morning, with another 1 to 3 inches possible and dozens of counties under flood warnings or flash flood watches. ☀️ Drier, sunnier weather is expected to return Friday and stick around into next week.
⛽ US ethanol production fell to a 34-week low at 1.007 million barrels per day, while stocks hit a 12-week low but remain a record for the week. 💰 Margins are still strong across the Corn Belt, ranging from breakeven to 40 cents per gallon positive.
🚢 Sovecon cut its Russian grain export forecast by nearly 10% to 44.7mmt, with wheat exports lowered 11% to 36.7mmt as Black Sea and Azov ports are expected to stay closed through year-end. 🇹🇷 Turkey is leading efforts to restore Black Sea grain trade, and Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its terminal capacity if a ceasefire is reached.
🫘 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📈 Accumulated soybean sales are now up 94% compared to the same point last year.