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🫘📉 Soybeans dropped sharply Thursday, with Nov26 down ~14 cents to $12.63/bu, the lowest settlement since late August. Harvest pressure, dry near-term forecasts, and a weak September crush outweighed renewed Chinese demand, while Dec26 corn slipped 3 cents to $4.78 and wheat followed lower.
🏭🛢️ NOPA’s September crush fell to a 13-month low at 296.3 million bushels, down 4.5% from August, as plant maintenance and harvest disruptions slowed processing. Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.05 billion lbs, their lowest since November 2014 and below trade expectations.
🇧🇷🌱 Conab raised Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 181.62mmt and corn to 148.02mmt, with exports of both expected to climb. Acreage growth is the smallest in 20 years amid tight margins and El Niño uncertainty, and Conab’s numbers still differ materially from USDA’s (corn 9mmt higher, soybeans 4.38mmt lower).
🇨🇳🚢 USDA flagged flash sales of 330,000mt of soybeans to China and 283,450mt to unknown destinations for 2026/27. Bloomberg reports China bought another 20 cargoes of US beans late this week, so more flash sales are likely.
💰🔥 The Producer Price Index jumped 1.3% in September, its biggest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 6.3%. Energy led the surge with gasoline up 20% and diesel up 21%, yet odds of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting fell to about 30%.
🌵🗺️ Warm, dry weather worsened drought in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southern Missouri, and northern Kentucky last week. The upside is ideal harvest conditions, helping farmers catch up on corn and soybean progress that’s lagging the five-year average.
🌽⛽ Ethanol output rose 1.1% to 1.065 million barrels per day, while stocks climbed to 23.94 million barrels. Margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, ranging from 5 to 50 cents per gallon positive per Reuters data.