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📈 Inflation heated up in September, with CPI rising 0.6% month over month and annual inflation hitting 3.7%, topping expectations of 3.6% as gasoline surged 9.1% and fuel oil soared 74% y/y. Ground beef was a rare bright spot, falling 1.3% to $7.06/lb, though markets still see only a 29% chance of a Fed hike on October 28th.
🇨🇳 China’s soybean crushing capacity has grown nearly 20% over the past decade, but operating rates stuck between 55% and 70% are squeezing profits as daily capacity heads past 520,000mt. With an aging population, shifting protein habits, and low-protein feed gaining ground, China’s soymeal demand may be peaking, raising questions about future US soybean purchases.
🚢 USDA confirmed a flash sale Wednesday of 470,000mt (17 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. It’s the first US soybean flash sale to China since the September 24 Trump-Xi meeting in Washington.
🌧️ Rain is returning to the Corn Belt after a mostly dry week, with radar active this morning across parts of the western Corn Belt and Plains. Totals look light, though, with few areas topping 1.5" over the next 5 days, while TX, OK, and southern MO see the heaviest amounts.
🫘 Soybeans fell for a third straight session Wednesday, with Nov26 down nearly 7 cents to around $12.77 on mostly favorable weather forecasts. Dec26 corn slipped 2 cents to about $4.81, while wheat posted modest gains on Black Sea shipping concerns.
⚡ Russia accused Ukraine of drone strikes on two western Russian refineries with roughly 540,000 barrels per day of capacity, which Ukraine denied, citing Trump’s proposed energy truce. Meanwhile, Russian strikes reportedly knocked out power and water in Kyiv, and US diesel sits near record highs at $6.30/gal, up 72% y/y.