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🌽 USDA shocked the trade Friday, raising the 2026 US corn yield to 181.2bpa, up from 178.5bpa last month and well above the 177.7bpa trade guess. 📊 Combined with higher beginning stocks, total corn supply jumped a whopping 407mil bushels, only partially offset by a 125mil bushel bump in demand.
📉 Corn futures fell sharply Friday after the “super bearish” USDA report, with Dec26 dropping more than 20 cents to its lowest close since mid-August. 🫘 Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend to gain more than 4 cents, while Dec26 SRW wheat lost more than 12 cents.
💰 The funds were net sellers of 51k corn and 7k SRW wheat contracts during the week ending October 5th, while buying 12k contracts of soybeans. 🔻 Private estimates show they sold another 63k corn, 17k soybean, and 8k SRW wheat contracts on Friday following the USDA report.
☀️ The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry over the weekend, likely allowing harvest to continue or accelerate across the region. 🌀 Rains from Hurricane Isaias soaked the Gulf Coast and mid-south, with Corn Belt rains returning midweek ahead of today’s 3pm CST Crop Progress report.
🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting is moving at a record pace, reaching 19.77% complete vs. 12.86% last year and 11.55% on average, per Patria AgroNegocios. 🌧️ Early, satisfactory rains are aiding progress as USDA projects a record 186mmt crop on a record 123.5mil acres.
10/12/2026