10/08/2026

USDA Preview + Another Round of Corn Belt Rain

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🌧️ More Rain for the Corn Belt: Tropical Storm Isaias could bring 1–4 inches of rain to parts of the southeastern Corn Belt, potentially delaying harvest and increasing flooding concerns in saturated areas. 🌽🌧️ The rest of the Corn Belt should remain mostly dry, offering a better harvest window. 

πŸ“Š USDA Report Friday: Traders expect USDA to lower corn yield and production estimates, while soybean yield and production are expected to remain unchanged. 🌽 Corn ending stocks are expected to rise, while soybean stocks decline slightly and wheat stocks edge higher. 

β›½ Ethanol Production Rebounds: U.S. ethanol output jumped 4.6% last week to 1.05M barrels/day, while stocks fell 1% to 23.74M barrels. πŸ“ˆ Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, ranging from breakeven to +40Β’/gal. 

🏠 Mortgage Rates Hit 3-Year High: The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.49%, marking seven straight weeks of increases. πŸ“‰ Mortgage applications fell 4.2%, with overall volume now nearly 50% below January levels. 

🏦 Fed Keeps Rate Hike on the Table: Fed officials still see another rate hike as likely before year-end, although the timing is uncertain. πŸ“ˆ Inflation remains above the 2% target, while rising energy costs and supply constraints could complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation lower.