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🗳️ Midterm Results: Democrats are projected to take control of both the House and Senate, flipping Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, plus governor’s races in Ohio and Texas. 📊 Grain markets are quiet this morning while stocks trade higher, and the recent $8 billion farmer relief package is safe since it was approved through the CCC without needing Congress. 💵
🌽 StoneX Crop Forecast: StoneX raised its 2026 corn yield to 183.1 bpa (above USDA’s 181.2), pushing total production to 16.20 billion bushels, with Iowa leading at 216 bpa. 🫘 Soybean yield was bumped to 55.0 bpa vs. USDA’s 53.1, putting production at 4.73 billion bushels, led by Illinois at 68 bpa. 📈
🏥 ACA Premiums: Obamacare marketplace premiums are expected to climb 13% in 2027 after a 26% jump this year, ranging from 3% in Vermont to 28% in Arizona. ⚠️ The expiration of enhanced tax credits means those earning over 400% of the federal poverty level now pay full price for coverage. 💸
📉 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn fell about 6¢ to ~$4.43/bu, its lowest close since early July, as export sales run 34% behind last year’s pace. 🫘 Jan27 soybeans slipped 3¢ to $12.14/bu on big-crop expectations, while wheat also closed lower despite optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌾
🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported 315,000mt of corn sold to Mexico and 136,000mt to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. 📦 Exporters also sold 134,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations. 🌍
🏭 ADM Earnings: ADM raised its profit outlook for the third straight quarter, with crushing profits soaring to $311 million from just $13 million a year ago. ⛽ The US-Iran war boosted crude prices and biofuel demand, and ADM now expects a ~$350 million benefit from the 45Z tax credit. 💰
👨🌾 Farmer Sentiment: The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer rose to 126 in October, though only 62% of farmers report a strong balance sheet, down from 76% in January. 📉 Just 35% believe higher tariffs will strengthen the ag economy, down from 58% a year ago. 🇺🇸