12/31/2025
Strategy Idea...Flyers in the S&P 500
The VIX is near multi-year lows, and stocks are at all-time highs. Maybe something cracks.
Recommendations
12/30/2025
Strategy Idea...Put Flyers in Crude
In a recent issue of the DeCarley Perspective (CLICK HERE TO READ), we outlined reasons we believe the oil market could find itself in a price spiral to its two-decade trendline. Of course, this is not a guarantee, but if this bear market ends as the previous three have, we could easily see oil at $15.00 per barrel. Hear us out....Oil might collapse to its trendline.
12/15/2025
Strategy Idea...Long March soybean calls
Like corn, soybeans typically go up this time of year.
12/15/2025
Strategy Idea...Long March corn with insurance
Corn futures are retesting their uptrend line at a time when seasonality is often supportive. While we aren't wildly bullish on corn at these prices, the odds favor a rally to $5.00 to $5.15 during the seasonal push. We like the idea of going long futures but with insurance to cap the risk. Corn normally goes up this time of year.
11/25/2025
Strategy Idea...If you bought the Jan corn put, consider this adjustment
Strategy Idea...If you bought the Jan corn put, consider this adjustment *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
11/20/2025
Strategy Idea...Long Mini Yen vs a Full-Sized Put
The Yen carry trade is a popular speculation that aims to exploit low or negative interest rates in Japan by borrowing cheaply in Yen to purchase higher-yielding assets around the world denominated in other currencies *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Newsletters
12/22/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...What did we learn from last year’s corn market? Will cattle reprice as it did in 2014?
Corn futures expiring in March of 2026 are trading at the same level as the March 2025 contract was in late December 2024. The jury is still out on whether we repeat the same price pattern, but it is worth reminding ourselves of how it played out. Corn futures expiring in March of 2026 are trading at the same level as the March 2025 contract was in late December 2024. The jury is still out on whether we repeat the same price pattern, but it is worth reminding ourselves of how it played out.
12/16/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Crude oil has been a slow-motion train wreck. What’s next?
The oil market has been in a perpetual decline since peaking in March 2022; this is ironic, as at the time, market sentiment for energy commodities was arguably at its highest level since the 2008 peak. The oil market has been in a perpetual decline since peaking in March 2022; this is ironic, as at the time, market sentiment for energy commodities was arguably at its highest level since the 2008 peak. Both of these historical summits were accompanied by the most bullish fundamental story imaginable. In 2008, analysts were focused on the Peak Oil Theory. This was the idea that oil is a finite resource, so discovery and production rates eventually plateau and decline, forcing prices higher. Because of this and a hot economy, market participants pushed prices to $150 per barrel; at the time, analysts were sure we would see $200, or even $250, sooner rather than later. While the Peak Oil Theory is obviously true, eventually, fracking shattered the idea that peak supply would occur in the…
12/04/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Investors Practicing Crowd Investing: A Deep Dive into Positioning.
Investors Practicing Crowd Investing: A Deep Dive into Positioning. Investors Practicing Crowd Investing: A Deep Dive into Positioning.
11/26/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...A Misconception on Commodity Inflation: A Quick Look at Coffee and Cocoa
Common sense would imply that the prices of commonly used commodities such as coffee, cocoa (or even crude oil, livestock, etc.) would increase over time along with inflation. A Misconception on Commodity Inflation: A Quick Look at Coffee and Cocoa
11/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Bitcoin was the first clue; will the Yen be the next?
The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has pursued ultra-accommodative monetary policy for decades to stimulate growth and combat inflation. Specifically, the central bank held interest rates at 0% or slightly negative from 2016 through 2024. This practice has achieved its inflation goals but has failed to generate the growth it desires, and it has attracted exploitation of its financial system by market participants. Bitcoin was the first clue; will the Yen be the next?
11/11/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...7 S&P 500 Stocks are Running Hot, 493 are not.
I don’t recall a time when the concentration risk in the stock market was this extreme. That same sentence could have been typed a year ago, and it really hasn’t mattered yet. I don’t recall a time when the concentration risk in the stock market was this extreme. That same sentence could have been typed a year ago, and it really hasn’t mattered yet. Aside from a temporary blip in early 2025, stock indices have forged unfathomable gains on the backs of a few stocks while most tickers have languished. If the train stays on the track, this isn’t a problem. But if something derails the train, the damage will be catastrophic. This is because prosperity is so concentrated that even investors blindly shoveling money into 401(k)s, with the perception of diversity, are at risk of being bag holders if the Magnificent 7 (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla) reprice to reasonable valuations. In other words, there is an argument to be made that money flows into ETFs…
Futures Chart Analysis
GF ~ Monthly
ECL ~ Monthly
DX ~ Monthly
EHG ~ Weekly
DeCarley Press
12/19/2025
Is the government helping or hurting farmers and markets?
Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
12/16/2025
Carley wouldn't try to call a bottom in crude oil yet.
The oil market isn't known for quiet bottoms. Instead, a significant bottom and subsequent bull market is only made possible by a capitulation in price and sentiment. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady discussed this on Cow Guy Close, which aired on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO
10/09/2025
Occidental (OXY) Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Continues to Fall
We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.
10/09/2025
Carley Garner joined Trading360 on Schwab to discuss the Occidental Petroleum deal with Berkshire Hathway
Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps
10/08/2025
Scott Shellady and Carley spoke about gold on Cow Guy Close today.
In 2020, investors chose Treasury bonds as their risk-off asset of choice. They couldn't get enough Treasuries, which were yielding less than a percent, in their portfolios. Mass accumulation of Treasuries to hedge economic and political uncertainty was the most popular narrative and trade. However, five years later, it proved to be the worst trade imaginable. In fact, although they intended to hedge risk, they were actually running into a burning house. We suspect the 2025 gold rally will eventually suffer the same fate. Here are the major takeaways, with a link to the video below -
Live Economic News/Data
01/03/2026
Trump says U.S. oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela after Maduro’s overthrow
U.S. oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela's energy sector after the overthrow of Nicolas Maduro, President Donald Trump said.
01/03/2026
Trump's removal of Maduro prompts questions from Congress
Congressional lawmakers say they were not briefed before President Donald Trump launched a land attack on Venezuela and deposed President Nicolas Maduro.
01/03/2026
U.S. indictment against Venezuela President Maduro, wife is unsealed
The indictment was unsealed hours after U.S. forces launched an attack on Venezuela and captured its president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
Notices
09/18/2025
Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones tomorrow.
Due to circumstances beyond our control (rescheduled flights at the discretion of the airline), we will not be in the office tomorrow.
08/29/2025
Labor Day Holiday Schedule
We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.
08/27/2025
Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?
We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 01/02/2026
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures posted significant gains. 1/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 01/02/2026
S&P 500 futures started 2026 near unchanged. 1/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 01/02/2026
Gold futures reversed gains as rate cut expectations faded. 1/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 01/02/2026
January's market performance in focus amid wait for Nonfarm Payrolls. 1/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 01/02/2026
Traders await Nonfarm Payrolls and watch January performance. 1/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 12/31/2025
Nasdaq-100 futures retreated for a third session, close year up more than 15%. 12/31/25
CME Group
