10/02/2025
Strategy Idea...Gold Risk Reversals to Hedge or Spec
Strategy Idea...Gold Risk Reversals to Hedge or Spec
Recommendations
09/30/2025
Strategy Idea...Re-own December Corn
December corn has retraced enough to test its breakout trendline. There is also statistical support here, courtesy of the lower Bollinger Band. In theory, prices should stay within these bands about 96% of the time. Lastly, seasonality is supportive for corn going forward. Thus, we like the idea of getting back in on the long side of futures with the comfort of a long put to insure against runaway losses. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
09/15/2025
Strategy Idea...Bear put spreads with short calls in coffee.
Coffee futures are facing technical and seasonal headwinds.
09/11/2025
Strategy Idea...Puts in pigs are cheap.
Hog futures have benefited from the cattle run, but with resistance near, the rally could falter.
09/05/2025
Strategy Idea...If you took a quick profit on the S&P, we like putting it back on.
*ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
09/02/2025
Strategy Idea...Get back into bearish gold spreads.
The gold market appears to be getting a boost from thin holiday trade and a short squeeze. However, similar rallies have reversed sharply, and we suspect this one will too. The US dollar has likely bottomed, and the December contract has finally retested the 2025 high posted in April. Lastly, we continue to be in an environment of relatively high interest rates, which "should" pull safe-haven dollars from gold and put them into Treasuries. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Newsletters
10/10/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...The Timing of the Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway Deal wasn’t Random.
Commodity producers have been put into a vice; their input costs have soared while most commodity prices have been under significant price pressure due to oversupply and slack demand. The Timing of the Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway Deal wasn’t Random.
10/01/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Gold is golding, again.
I have no doubt I’ll be talking about 2025 for years to come in a similar way I referred to the global financial crisis and the pandemic markets. I’ve made some mistakes in analysis and strategy, based on the expectation that markets would behave similarly to previous cycles, but this time has been different. While I believe the outcome will eventually conform to historical norms, the size and scope of volatility have been eye-opening. Gold is golding, again.
09/26/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Should the government get into the cattle business?
I’ll be the first to admit that I know nothing about the inner operational workings of agricultural production. Still, I do know that farming and ranching aren’t businesses for the faint of heart. Should the government get into the cattle business?
09/18/2025
Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones tomorrow.
Due to circumstances beyond our control (rescheduled flights at the discretion of the airline), we will not be in the office tomorrow.
09/15/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Our favorite caffeinated beverage is hotter than ever.
Coffee futures have put on a volatility clinic over the last 12 months. At risk of being repetitive, everything is bigger and better in a post-2020 stimulus world. Like other assets, the global influx of liquidity has exacerbated upside volatility. Even so, we have seen the coffee market behave in this manner in the past, albeit on a more subdued scale, which was in 2011. Coffee futures have put on a volatility clinic over the last 12 months. At risk of being repetitive, everything is bigger and better in a post-2020 stimulus world. Like other assets, the global influx of liquidity has exacerbated upside volatility. Even so, we have seen the coffee market behave in this manner in the past, albeit on a more subdued scale, which was in 2011.
09/12/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Cash on the sidelines probably won’t chase asset prices higher.
Cash on the sidelines probably won’t chase asset prices higher.
Futures Chart Analysis
DX ~ Monthly
EHG ~ Weekly
Bloomberg Commodity Index ~ Monthly
Feeder Cattle
DeCarley Press
10/09/2025
Occidental (OXY) Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Continues to Fall
We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.
10/09/2025
Carley Garner joined Trading360 on Schwab to discuss the Occidental Petroleum deal with Berkshire Hathway
Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps
10/08/2025
Scott Shellady and Carley spoke about gold on Cow Guy Close today.
In 2020, investors chose Treasury bonds as their risk-off asset of choice. They couldn't get enough Treasuries, which were yielding less than a percent, in their portfolios. Mass accumulation of Treasuries to hedge economic and political uncertainty was the most popular narrative and trade. However, five years later, it proved to be the worst trade imaginable. In fact, although they intended to hedge risk, they were actually running into a burning house. We suspect the 2025 gold rally will eventually suffer the same fate. Here are the major takeaways, with a link to the video below -
09/08/2025
What is next for ags with the WASDE on tap?
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
08/08/2025
Gold tariffs trigger overnight rally
Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show. Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show.
Live Economic News/Data
10/13/2025
Rare earth stocks surge on U.S-China trade dispute over the critical minerals
President Donald Trump on Friday threatened China with a "massive" increase in tariffs in retaliation for Beijing imposing strict controls on rare earths.
10/13/2025
OpenAI partners with Broadcom to build custom AI chips, adding to Nvidia and AMD deals
OpenAI is teaming up with Broadcom to jointly develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators starting in 2026.
10/13/2025
Bloom Energy soars more than 25% on deal with Brookfield to put fuel cells in AI data centers
The agreement between Bloom Energy and Brookfield Asset Management is the latest deal to develop power solutions for data center campuses.
Notices
09/18/2025
Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones tomorrow.
Due to circumstances beyond our control (rescheduled flights at the discretion of the airline), we will not be in the office tomorrow.
08/29/2025
Labor Day Holiday Schedule
We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.
08/27/2025
Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?
We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 10/10/2025
Markets digest recent trade developments as government shutdown continues. 10/10/25
CME Group
Posted on 10/10/2025
S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fell on renewed trade tensions. 10/10/25
CME Group
Posted on 10/10/2025
Live Cattle futures rallied to new highs as Hog futures fell. 10/10/25
CME Group
Posted on 10/10/2025
Corn, Soybean and Wheat futures drop on global trade developments. 10/10/25
CME Group
Posted on 10/09/2025
Equities pulled back while crypto futures saw volatility. 10/9/25
CME Group
Posted on 10/09/2025
Live and Feeder Cattle futures hit new record highs. 10/9/25
CME Group
