04/24/2026
Strategy Idea...Bean oil puts look attractive.
Soybean oil futures are diverging, and seasonality is bearish. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Recommendations
04/22/2026
Strategy Idea...Sweet Sugar Strangles
We had some luck with our previous long option strangle in sugar, and like the idea of applying a similar approach to the current market setup. Sugar generally moves lower until the first or second week of May, leaving some room for further decline. Yet there are two downtrend lines for traders to contend with: the first is near 13.00, and the next comes in at 12.25ish. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
04/17/2026
Strategy Idea...Low/Limited Risk Bearish S&P Position
With everyone either overhedged, too short, or underweight, the S&P 500 two weeks ago, the market has produced one of the largest and fastest rallies in history as bearishness unwinds. However, the new all-time highs leave us at the top of an expanding trading range. Perhaps we melt through, but perhaps we have seen what we are going to see on the upside for now, and this is a place for the bears to take a shot at the downside. We have found a way to express a bearish opinion in a market that has ripped the faces off bears with minimal risk. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
04/17/2026
Strategy Idea...Calls on Pigs
The hog market moved higher earlier this year on the coattails of the cattle market, but we have since seen hogs give up gains, while cattle have maintained most of the rally. Seasonality is mixed in hogs; the bottom is usually next month, but the chart looks promising, and the call options are cheap enough to justify a nibble. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
04/13/2026
Strategy Idea...Getting Bullish on July Natural Gas
While I do think there is some risk of the front month finally touching the $2.40 level we have picked out on a weekly chart, I think the back months are starting to look attractive for the bulls. The US gas market is one of the few in the commodity complex on its heels, yet this event might be a significant turning point for US LNG demand. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
04/06/2026
Strategy Idea...May Corn War Play
The corn market has benefited from inflation trades, but has failed to keep up with oil. Funds are buying, but even with funds as long as they have been in a year, the rally has been disappointing. Yet the recent sell-off held support (breakout trendline and 200-day moving average) and appears poised for one more attempt at a rally. What happens with the Iran deadline tomorrow probably matters. We can play both sides with a bullish bias and very little risk. See below for details. Sorry so short; the market closes soon, and we want to get it out before it's too late. The corn market is offering a low-risk opportunity.
Newsletters
04/23/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?
Early in the Iranian “excursion” war, most commodities followed oil higher. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, agricultural commodity markets such as corn, soybeans, and wheat experienced sharp rallies amid a hectic war market. While wheat had its own bullish narrative, Ukraine is sometimes referred to as the world’s breadbasket due to its robust production of the commodity; the others rallied primarily on cash inflows into commodity ETFs and funds. At the time, investors clamored for ways to hedge inflation risk. The money rotating into commodities allowed corn prices to reach levels above $8.00 per bushel, soybeans to nearly $18.00 per bushel, and soybean oil to just over $0.90 per pound. The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?
04/15/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Risk assets are rolling; blow-off top in copper and last hurrah for precious metals?
The equity market has made a miraculous recovery from recent lows. In fact, the market has traveled what is historically a year or more worth of gains in just 10 sessions, putting it in the 99.7th percentile of rallies. Not surprisingly, the rebound in risk assets has allowed correlated assets, such as metals (both precious and industrial), to track higher. We’ve been tabbing the correlation board for clues and have discovered that copper, gold, and silver have all been trading with a moderate positive correlation to the dollar and a healthy positive correlation to the S&P 500. We believe this opens the door to a continuation of the metals rally in the short run, but it will likely set up much larger setbacks. Risk assets are rolling; blow-off top in copper and last hurrah for precious metals?
04/07/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.
The two biggest precursors to a recession are an inverted yield curve and a sharp spike in oil prices. We are now contending with both. The 10-year yield was lower than the 2-year yield (inverted) from mid-2022 through mid-2024. This was the longest and deepest inversion on record. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that market participants favor long-term bonds as a hedge against potential future economic turmoil. Despite the recent 26-month inversion, this is a relatively rare occurrence. Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.
04/01/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”
When silver futures were ascending over $100 per ounce, we described the market as being “Gamestopped.” At the time, there was criticism of this opinion, suggesting it was not possible to manipulate a massive global commodity market such as silver in the same manner as an off-the-grid stock could be. However, we stand by our assessment. We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”
03/23/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...What if coffee is the new cocoa?
I recently hosted a class on coffee hedging for roasters and producers at the National Coffee Association convention in Tampa, Florida. I thought it made sense to share some of the content in our newsletter and update it for those new followers we gained at the event. What if coffee is the new cocoa?
03/18/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.
Although the commodity world has turned its attention to the energy sector, we wanted to provide an updated chart on the previous flash-in-the-pan commodity: gold. While I was scratching my head while gold rallied wildly in January, others are trying to figure out how gold is moving lower on news of a fresh war in the Middle East. This is textbook buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action. However, not everyone knew US and Israeli bombs would be dropping in Iran, but price action suggests someone probably did. Or at least they had a reason to believe it was a real possibility. For instance, China hoarded both gold and oil going into the conflict. As they say, markets, and therefore charts, are all-knowing. Even if the news isn’t public yet, there are those behind the scenes preparing for it. By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.
Futures Chart Analysis
Crude Oil vs. Bean Oil
BTC ~ Weekly
ZSK26 ~ Daily
ECLK26 ~ Daily
DeCarley Press
04/22/2026
Oligopolies in fertilizer causing farmers to be price takers on both ends
Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers. Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers.
03/12/2026
Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.
This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.
03/12/2026
The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.
Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
02/26/2026
Scott and Carley discuss crude oil and the World Uncertainty Index
We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out. We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out.
01/15/2026
What's going on in silver?
I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
Live Economic News/Data
04/26/2026
Trump: Shooter at White House press dinner had multiple weapons, one officer shot
Trump, seated next to first lady Melania Trump, was quickly surrounded by Secret Service agents, while many attendees ducked under their tables.
04/26/2026
Tillis ends block of Fed chair nominee Warsh, clears way for Trump pick
04/26/2026
Trump cancels U.S. envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran war negotiations: 'If they want to talk, all they have to do is call'
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been expected to arrive in Islamabad on Saturday.
Notices
04/07/2026
Tonight's Event Risk
Tonight's deadline for Iran to open the Straits could trigger volatility.
04/02/2026
Good Friday Holiday Trading Schedule 2026
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, April 3rd, in observance of Good Friday.
02/12/2026
IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING OUR AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK
Carley has been offered an opportunity she couldn't refuse. She will be hosting the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV from their studio in Nashville on Friday, February 20th, and Monday, February 23rd. Scott needs a break! Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones for a few days in late February.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 04/25/2026
Five central bank decisions and Iran talks define the week. 4/24/26.
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2026
Geopolitics and central banks command the market focus. 4/24/26.
CME Group
Posted on 04/24/2026
Gold futures faced weekly losses as markets tracked Hormuz talks. 4/24/26
CME Group
Posted on 04/24/2026
Live Cattle futures dropped for a second consecutive week. 4/24/26
CME Group
Posted on 04/24/2026
WTI Crude Oil futures fell as natural gas hit a 19-month low. 4/24/26
CME Group
Posted on 04/23/2026
Equity Index futures retreat from records amid tech selloff. 4/23/26
CME Group
