Recommendations

11/18/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish Risk Reversals in July Cotton
We've been patiently waiting for a chance to get back into the long side of the cotton market, and this appears to be the high-probability set-up we were hoping for. Cotton often finds a low in the second half of November. The market is moderately oversold and nearing the lows seen earlier in the year. Thus, we should be relatively close to the end of the liquidation cycle. The Selling in Cotton Futures Should Dry Up.
11/15/2024
Strategy Idea...Call Ladders in March Coffee
Coffee seasonality remains mostly positive for the next month, yet prices are pressing against trendline resistance after a stunning 40-cent rally in a handful of trading sessions. The result of the upside volatility is wildly expensive call options. This provides an opportunity for option traders to put together a call ladder that makes money in almost any scenario (up, down, sideways) and has the potential to make a large sum of money if the stars align at or near expiration. Using the Market's Money to Get Long Coffee
11/14/2024
Strategy Idea....Maaach Copppaa.
We have been pointing out the wild discrepancy between high-flying stocks, which suggest economic growth, and a slumping silver market, which represents the opposite. Further, Treasuries price in inflation, but copper prices in deflation. We suspect these bigger trends could be nearing reversals as markets revert to their means. Copper has fallen to trendline support; micros offer a low-risk and low-stress way to play.
11/11/2024
Strategy Idea...March Corn Puts are Cheap!
Today's corn rallies won't be as spectacular as those in previous years. In fact, we suspect the 30-cent run we've had since last month is about all we can expect for now Seasonality and gravity will probably work against corn in the short run.
11/07/2024
Strategy Idea...Call Ladders in the ES
The equity markets have spent the last few trading sessions reacting to the US election. Fundamentally, it feels like an overreaction; rolling back regulations and prospects of lower taxes are market-friendly, but in our estimation, much of this was priced into the indices before the election. If you have S&P 500 FOMO, here is an idea.
10/31/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish Risk Reversals in ZB
It is par for the course to see interest rate securities pull back and correct following a Federal Reserve rate cut, but the size and scope of this selloff are stunning. Treasuries weakness is stunning, but we continue to believe it is temporary.

Newsletters

11/12/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...We are being gaslit by our quote boards.
The hardest thing to do as a human is to trust what we know, not what we see. It’s hard not to have FOMO watching stocks soar higher while being under allocated. Yet, stocks are as expensive now as they have ever been. On many metrics, equities valuations are equivalent to the dot-com bubble highs. Perhaps this continues, but when we look around our quote boards, we know that there are significant headwinds to the rally that probably haven’t been accounted for. Also, some markets are outright signaling deflation and negative growth. We are being gaslit by our quote boards.
11/11/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Post-Election, TINA Hits Different
The acronym TINA (There is No Alternative) was born in the near zero-interest rate era and referred to the justification of keeping money in stocks even if the fundamental backdrop and prospective risk suggested it was aggressive to do so. In short, for almost two decades, TINA encouraged overzealous risk-taking because risk-off assets weren’t producing yield, and it worked tremendously for investors. Post-Election, TINA Hits Different
11/01/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Concerning action in crude oil going into the weekend.
Something is brewing in crude oil. The last time I saw crude oil call options disconnect from the underlying futures like this was in the days before Russia Invading Ukraine. Crude oil is up slightly over a dollar overnight, but out-of-the-money call options have roughly doubled in value across the chain. Is something brewing in crude oil?
10/24/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Are the copper and yen markets telling us something?
I’ve been a futures and options broker for over two decades; I’ve seen, experienced, and felt a lot. What I am seeing on my quote board, hearing from the talking heads, and reading on social media and chat boards this week is concerning. Complacency is at an all-time high, while event risk is arguably similarly elevated. We should all be on high alert going forward. Are the copper and yen markets telling us something?
10/22/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the "Trump Trade" Old News or Fake News?
There is no shortage of opinions or polls regarding the upcoming US election, but in the end, none of us know what will unfold two weeks from now. Further, will anything unfold at all, or will we be in a “hanging chad” situation? Is the "Trump Trade" Old News or Fake News?
10/21/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Last hurrah in the gold rally?
Last Hurrah in the Gold Rally?

Futures Chart Analysis

EGC ~ Monthly
Crude Oil ~ Weekly
ES ~ Monthly
EGC ~ Monthly

DeCarley Press

11/14/2024
Trading is hard. Carley spoke about gold volatility with the Cow Guy.
Carley Garner and Scott Shellady spoke about the relationship between gold and the "Trump trade" on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close. Garner spoke about the challenges of trading markets into and after a risky event such as the Presidential Election. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady spoke about the relationship between gold and the "Trump trade" on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close. Garner spoke about the challenges of trading markets into and after a risky event such as the Presidential Election.
11/06/2024
Are the Trump tariffs already priced into the grain markets? Scott and I reminisce about the last Chinese trade war.
Are the Trump tariffs already priced into the grain markets? Scott and I reminisce about the last Chinese trade war. Click here to watch this segment of the Cow Guy Close discussing soybean prices and Trump tariffs.
10/23/2024
Jim Rogers is nervous, for good reason. We spoke about it on Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady
Jim Rogers, author of Hot Commodities, points out that we are due for a financial catastrophe. He suggests that perhaps buying silver and agriculture is a better bet than some other markets (although he notes cash is king). I spoke about it with Scott Shellady on Cow Guy Close. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO
10/17/2024
Something big is happening in Treasuries and Gold, Carley talked about it on Ausbiz
Traders and even funds hold the most significant net short position ever seen in Treasury futures. This is an aggressive position to "fight the Fed"; do they know something we don't, or will it be unwound to push rates lower and Treasuries higher? CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
09/17/2024
There are good arguments for being a gold bear and an oil bull
Carley joined Schwab Network this morning to discuss the potential for trend reversals in gold and oil futures. According to the COT report, both markets are experiencing extreme positioning and appear to be at critical technical junctures. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS INTERVIEW

Notices

10/31/2024
ELECTION RISK REDUCTION AND DAY TRADING MARGIN CHANGES 
We encourage clients to strongly consider lightening their risk and margin load for next week's election. While we can't predict or control the outcome, or more importantly, how the market reacts to the outcome, we can control which positions are open going into Tuesday. For those of you trading large quantities in high concentration, it is probably a good idea to have hedges (maybe long options or micro futures). If you are unsure of whether your portfolio is too aggressive, please reach out to us for help. We encourage clients to strongly consider lightening their risk and margin load for next week's election. While we can't predict or control the outcome, or more importantly, how the market reacts to the outcome, we can control which positions are open going into Tuesday. For those of you trading large quantities in high concentration, it is probably a good idea to have hedges (maybe long options or micro futures). If you are unsure of whether your portfolio is too aggressive,…
07/01/2024
Independence Day Trading Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
06/13/2024
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

11/21/2024
Nvidia says it will sell more of its next-generation Blackwell chips than previously anticipated
Nvidia on Wednesday signaled that Blackwell sales over the next few quarters will be limited by how many chips and systems it can make.
11/21/2024
DOJ pushes for Google to break off Chrome browser after antitrust case
The Department of Justice is pushing a federal judge to make Google divest its Chrome internet browser as a remedy following the antitrust case.
11/20/2024
Comcast's cable network spinoff may be a signal to the media industry for necessary change
Comcast may be proceeding with a transaction as a signal to the rest of the media industry that consolidation is necessary.

Futures Market News

Posted on 11/20/2024
Livestock futures higher across the board despite corn rally. 11/20/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/20/2024
Soybean futures down on good South American weather. Corn, Wheat futures higher. 11/20/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/20/2024
Nasdaq futures lag other indexes ahead of NVIDIA earnings. 11/20/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/20/2024
10-Year Treasury Note yield rises above 4.4% amid shifting Fed expectations. 11/20/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/20/2024
Japan's trade balance data pressures Yen futures. 11/20/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/20/2024
WTI Crude Oil futures lower after EIA report shows unexpected build. 11/20/24
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

News & Research

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.