DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

06/18/2026

Strategy Idea...Yen intervention call options

The market doesn't seem to think the BOJ will repeat past behavior, which was only a temporary fix. But it doesn't cost much to be there if it does. Call options are surprisingly cheap. We can buy August near-the-money calls for less than the price of a nice room on the Las Vegas Strip. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

06/12/2026

Strategy Idea...Seasonal hog buy with insurance.

Sometimes, ag contracts see trend reversals when one contract goes off the board as traders roll from one to the other. The hog roll is selling June futures and buying August. With August nearing its seasonal low in a few weeks and with the November lows acting as support, it feels like an opportunity to go long August hog futures with insurance. After all, beef prices remain stubbornly high; we doubt consumers will refuse to substitute their proteins. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

06/12/2026

Strategy Idea...Nibbling on new crop beans.

Fund liquidation ahead of bearish seasonality brought beans to support levels.

06/04/2026

Strategy Idea...Buying new crop corn

As we learned in 2022, war rallies ruin the grain markets. In 2022, and to a lesser extent in 2026, war pulls a lot of commodity-tourist money into the long side of grains by funds and investors looking to hedge inflation or profit from it. Then, when they leave for the next destination, farmers are left holding the bag. We don't like it, but we can't change it. In any case, speculator liquidation has brought December corn to its trendline. This should be a place for the bulls to take positions with plenty of time and a favorable risk/reward profile. Speculators are liquidating corn; the new crop looks attractive for a bullish play.

06/01/2026

Strategy Idea...Low-stakes wheat spread.

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Own a little gold with mitigated risk.

06/16/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

With politicians giving everyone so much to talk about, the strength of the US dollar has gone largely unnoticed. There was a time when King Dollar lived up to its name; how the global currency market priced the dollar dictated how most other assets were valued. Things have changed a bit, mostly because government programs and Central Bank policies have distorted the currency markets The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

06/10/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Additional thoughts on the indices

The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; this is a trendline that posed significant resistance for several months before finally failing in early May. Now that the S&P is trading above it, it will act as support. Unfortunately, if the market can’t hold 7250, there aren’t any reliable support levels until we get back to the bottom of the range, currently at 6250. 6800 lured modest buying in 2025, so it might slow down the selling, but it likely…

06/09/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer

We are witnessing stock market history. The older generation, me included, has seen this movie end. But as the last few years have taught us, nobody knows when and where it ends. Further, those exercising precautions to avoid a 30% to 50% haircut might find that, when that haircut comes, it merely takes prices down to where they began allocating away from stocks. Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer

06/05/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

Not surprisingly, war markets bring volatility to the commodity sector. However, it is challenging to paint the aftermath as beneficial for anyone. As was the case in mid-to-late 2022, I find myself asking, “what are we even doing?” The hot money chasing assets not only interferes with logical price discovery but also impacts commodity producers, many of whom are family farms. Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

05/28/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Commodity Round Table

2025 and 2026 have aged those of us in the industry by at least a decade; suddenly, 40s are the new 50s. Excessive volatility has made it hard to keep up with market movements when dedicating newsletters to a single commodity; thus, we will continue to feature multiple markets in our write-ups to ensure we cover most bases. We are in a hot money market in which participants have been trained to chase assets rather than invest in them.

05/21/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

The economic numbers look great, but I must wonder how we are getting there. In other words, what is going on under the hood that is allowing the system to squeeze blood from a turnip? I could be wrong, but I suspect it is much darker and more dangerous than most people believe. In 2007, I vividly remember the economic numbers firing on all cylinders until they didn’t. The aggressive government home-buying programs and risky investment products behind the scenes made the housing market look like it was booming, when it was artificial. Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

06/22/2026

Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans in San Francisco for the MoneyShow in August!

This multi-day event takes place at the Fairmont San Francisco, perched atop Nob Hill. Not only will there be opportunities for great sightseeing, but some of the industry's most popular names will be there, including Victoria Greene, Larry McDonald, Jim Bianco, Eric Balchunas, and more.

06/18/2026

Join us in Las Vegas for the MoneyShow!

It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :) It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :)

06/18/2026

Carley joined Ausbiz to talk about a dollar brekout

I joined @ausbiztv last night (morning in the AU) to talk about a potential breakout in the dollar. A stronger greenback changes the entire landscape, shifting from a tailwind for assets such as gold and stocks to a headwind. I also wrote about this in our client newsletter (and Substack) earlier this week. The currency markets might matter again.

06/10/2026

Is the screwworm fiasco already priced into cattle futures?

Stock and I discussed this on today's Cow Guy Close. Hint...I think it probably is. https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/erASrleY

06/01/2026

Shorten your commodity option trading learning curve.

I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity. I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity.

06/24/2026

Three New York Democrats backed by Mamdani win House seat primaries; 2 incumbents lose

Two candidates backed by the Democratic Socialist of America won their primaries, a year after the DSA-backed Zohran Mamdani won New York mayor's race.

06/24/2026

Ukraine is raising the cost of war for Russia — and testing Putin's resolve

A string of political victories and deep-strike successes has bolstered confidence in Ukraine amid its long-running war with Russia.

06/24/2026

Oil extends decline as Trump accuses oil firms of 'gouging' consumers

U.S. President Donald Trump intensified pressure on oil companies to lower gasoline prices following the recent decline in crude.

06/23/2026

DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!

The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!