DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

07/27/2026

Strategy Idea...Bullish Live Cattle Play

In the big picture, years and months, not days and weeks, we believe the cattle market has probably seen its highs for this cycle. But, when we look at the weekly chart, we see a market testing a trendline where it has habitually found buyers. We also see a bullish seasonal tendency for August in cash cattle. Lastly, just like the screwworm crossing the border completed a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact phenomenon, the opening of the Mexican border likely completed a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact process. In other words, we think it is time to give the upside in live cattle a shot using bull call spreads with a naked put to finance the trade (details below). *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

07/22/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish flyers in "coppa"

The aggressive AI buildout has been a boon for the copper industry. The industrial metal is a great conductor of electricity and cooling. AI data centers require substantial amounts of copper to combat extreme thermal loads. The metal is also useful in electric vehicles and renewable energy sources. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

07/20/2026

Strategy Idea...Getting Bearish in Oil

Violent flare-ups in Iran have triggered a $20.00 oil short squeeze in a relatively short time. This was a needed correction. As we stated in previous newsletters, the USO ETF traders held a large net short position in addition to short call options; as we know, commodities don't make it easy on anyone... especially the overleveraged. Further, we often see short squeezes into contract expiration get reversed. The August WTI oil futures contract expires tomorrow, and our chart suggests that $86.00 (in the August contract) is highly pivotal. Thus, we like being bears up here with bear put spreads paid for by a short call (naked). See the details below. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

07/17/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish Seasonal Wheat Play.

07/13/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish November Bean Put Spreads w/Kicker

07/08/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish July corn play to hedge or spec

07/23/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Is the stock market out of gas?

There are headlines circulating about large short seller positions in the equity market. We can see why they would want to be short, and we agree (we recently suggested a bearish option play). However, it should be noted that when short sellers are active, it often acts as fuel to the fire. Is the stock market out of gas?

07/17/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...All Markets Should Pay Attention to Kevin Warsh, but Particularly Stocks, Copper, and Ags.

Perhaps the single most important statement made all year was delivered by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Earlier this week, during a Congressional testimony, he said plainly and simply, “Inflation is a choice.” The new Fed Chair is the first to say out loud that the inflation problems we are experiencing today are the direct result of too much liquidity in the system. Those of us who have been around for a while remember the onset of Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to combat the Global Financial Crisis. These programs involve the government buying its own Treasury debt and were intended to be temporary. QE is designed to add liquidity to the system and keep asset prices afloat, in hopes that the wealth effect would encourage economic activity. Less liquidity means smaller rallies.

07/13/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...War headlines are back, but oil volatility isn’t what it was

https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=1685883c-7eec-11f1-856c-310063760f3d&pt=campaign&t=1783969413&s=b3d5b23bbd073d652ecff0b34541edb42d2f14f6cf90defcf23df8f8ba81e877 War headlines are back, but oil volatility isn’t what it was

06/29/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Thinking Outside of the Box

One of the greatest developments in the futures markets during my two-decade-plus career is the advent of micro-sized futures contracts. Prior to micro futures, commodity speculators were forced into larger, more aggressive positions. Smaller contracts allow retail traders of any size or risk tolerance to dip their toes into the futures markets at a more comfortable pace. Thinking Outside of the Box: Protect Micro Futures with Full-Sized Options

06/26/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.

We dedicated an entire newsletter to the many similarities between what we see on our quote boards and in our lives today that resemble the years leading up to the global financial crisis; click here to review it. Considering the recent collapse in crude oil prices, we are compelled to compare today’s oil market to the 2008 market. History should not be ignored because it tends to be repeated. Even though the factors driving market prices differ slightly, the patterns and, eventually, the outcome are likely to be the same. Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.

06/16/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

With politicians giving everyone so much to talk about, the strength of the US dollar has gone largely unnoticed. There was a time when King Dollar lived up to its name; how the global currency market priced the dollar dictated how most other assets were valued. Things have changed a bit, mostly because government programs and Central Bank policies have distorted the currency markets The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

07/23/2026

War and political risk priced back into crude oil, now what?

While everyone is focused on supply issues in oil, we are looking at demand destruction and the US dollar rally. What a wild ride 2026 has been for oil traders!

07/08/2026

Coffee market volatility reminds us that markets seek and destroy leverage and weak hands

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP

06/22/2026

Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans in San Francisco for the MoneyShow in August!

This multi-day event takes place at the Fairmont San Francisco, perched atop Nob Hill. Not only will there be opportunities for great sightseeing, but some of the industry's most popular names will be there, including Victoria Greene, Larry McDonald, Jim Bianco, Eric Balchunas, and more.

06/18/2026

Join us in Las Vegas for the MoneyShow!

It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :) It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :)

06/18/2026

Carley joined Ausbiz to talk about a dollar brekout

I joined @ausbiztv last night (morning in the AU) to talk about a potential breakout in the dollar. A stronger greenback changes the entire landscape, shifting from a tailwind for assets such as gold and stocks to a headwind. I also wrote about this in our client newsletter (and Substack) earlier this week. The currency markets might matter again.

07/27/2026

Sam Altman to meet with Trump administration, senators this week. Here's what he plans to say

Altman will preview the capabilities of the company's upcoming family of AI models and answer questions about cybersecurity and open-weight models.

07/27/2026

Trump administration asks Supreme Court to intervene to allow mail-in voting restrictions

A federal appeals court on Saturday kept the restrictions blocked in 23 states that sued, finding states must prepare for potentially disruptive election changes.

07/27/2026

Trump says U.S. has sold more than $13 billion of Venezuela oil since Maduro's capture

President Donald Trump said Monday the U.S. has sold more than $13 billion of Venezuelan oil since taking control of the South American nation's energy exports.

07/02/2026

250th Birthday Holiday Schedule

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

06/23/2026

DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!

The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!