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Recommendations

05/30/2025
Strategy Idea...Euro puts with plenty of time are cheap, buy 'em.
A Bloomberg piece recently described US dollar sentiment as being the most bearish ever. However, that same sentiment reading has been similarly low in the past immediately preceding a large dollar rally. Thus, we are looking for a repeat. The euro was the primary beneficiary of dollar weakness, so it should give back some of the gains as the market digests the move. We prefer low- and limited-risk plays with ample time to execute. The Sell America Movement Left the Euro Overpriced.
05/29/2025
Strategy Idea...Long Nat Gas with an Option Play
Natural gas seasonality is iffy this time of year, but the chart appears to be clear. The market is bullish above the 200-day moving average and bearish below. We believe yesterday's sell-off was the result of the June contract expiration and the market's need to test trendline support. In our view, the odds are in favor of a rally from the trendline. Yet, we recognize the downside risk that would come with failure at the trendline. Thus, we are offering an option spread that gives the market roughly 60 cents in room for error. Natural gas could and should hold trendline support and the 200-day moving average.
05/28/2025
Strategy Idea...Get long wheat futures with insurance.
According to the COT Report, large speculators are holding roughly the largest net short position ever in wheat. This massive position looks and feels complacent with wheat futures near trendline support and the lowest prices we have seen in years. Specs are massively short wheat, squeeze ahead?
05/23/2025
Strategy Idea...Bearish play in gold with room for error.
Yesterday, we wrote about our macro view of gold and Treasuries; you can read it here. With this in mind, we lean toward a contrarian view in gold. Today's rally puts the market against a downtrend line; if broken, we could retest the all-time high near $3500. However, it is hard to imagine enough buyers show up to allow prices to move higher than the last high. Further, we doubt these gains are sustainable in the coming months. Gold usually rolls over this time of year and is wildly overvalued relative to Treasuries.
05/21/2025
Strategy Idea...Let's put the October sugar calls back on.
A few weeks ago, we suggested buying sugar calls using the October options to catch a seasonal rally off technical support. It worked as expected. Hopefully, you were able to exit with a profit. If not, sit tight with what you have. If so, we like the idea of putting the trade back on. This is a low-risk play with a lot of time. The market is giving us another chance, let's give it a try.
05/08/2025
Strategy Idea...Let's put the 10-year play back on.
The seasonal low for Treasuries is this week, and we are past the FOMC meeting. Let's give it another try.

Newsletters

05/28/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...We’ve noticed some overcrowded trades in the ag sector.
Being a contrarian thinker is both an asset and a curse. Socially, it can be a hindrance to fitting in with the masses. This mindset prevents us from enjoying the ride when things are going well and lures us into strong opinions too early. But on the bright side, being skeptical of consensus thinking in markets might keep us from getting slaughtered with the herd. We’ve noticed some overcrowded trades in the ag sector.
05/27/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Nothing good happens for crude oil bulls below $65.00.
The oil market is popular among speculators due to its volatility, liquidity, and familiarity, but it is one that often confounds even the most astute analysts. There are two primary reasons for this: the supply of oil is at least partially dictated by a cartel, and it is primarily produced by a region of the world prone to unpredictable political violence. Nothing Good Happens for Crude Oil Bulls Under $65
05/22/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...The world is selling Treasuries and buying Gold; Mathematically, that’s a bad move
These are not your grandfather’s markets; asset repricing is quicker due to electronic trading, and the bandwagon mentality is more prominent due to instant information dissemination. Further, unprecedented and unfathomable government stimulus via pandemic checks and aggressive monetary and fiscal policy has turned the financial markets into slush funds. The world is selling Treasuries and buying Gold; Mathematically, that’s a bad move.
05/07/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the US Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status at Risk?
Is the US Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status at Risk? If so, what does that mean for the Greenback?
04/29/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...An overview of the impact of tariffs on commodities thus far
If trading were as easy as acting on the mainstream take, everyone would do it. Ironically, the consensus analysis is often the view that proves incorrect with time. In short, if everyone in the room thinks the same thing, then no one is thinking at all. An overview of the impact of tariffs on commodities thus far
04/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Perception and reality rarely align; look at Treasury volatility.
The 10-year note soared from about 1% in mid-2021 to 4.3% in October 2022, and despite some ups and downs, it is EXACTLY where it was after that historic yield rally (plunge in price). Yet, we let a few days of dysfunction alter our mindsets. We shouldn't. Treasury market volatility is near its historic comfort zone. Additionally, despite all the problems the US Treasury faces, it remains the least dirty shirt in the hamper. Perception and reality rarely align; look at Treasury volatility.

Futures Chart Analysis

ES ~ Weekly
Gold ~ Monthly
DX ~ Monthly
US Dollar Sentiment

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See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

05/28/2025
If crude oil bottoms, it will be because of an unforeseen catalyst.
Carley Garner joined Alex Coffey of the Schwab Network to share her views on the oil market, which she doesn't find bullish. Without an OPEC put in place, and demand waning, oil prices could fall under $50.00 per barrel. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP.
05/23/2025
WATCH COW GUY CLOSE WITH SCOTT SHELLADY ON RFD-TV WEEKDAYS AT 1:30 TO 2:30 EST
If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.! If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.!
05/23/2025
Carley and Dale Pinkert of FACE analyzed crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, and others.
Carley Garner shared her chart analysis on popular financial and commodity markets such as crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, Treasuries, stock indices, and the US dollar index. CLICK HERE TO VIEW
05/22/2025
Carley spoke to Scott Shellady, The Cow Guy, about gold and Treasuries.
The masses are buying gold and selling Treasuries. Are they wrong? History and math suggest that they might be. The masses are buying gold and selling Treasuries. Are they wrong? History and math suggest that they might be.
05/06/2025
Carley Joined Chris Beers of NTD's Capitol Report to Discuss Crude Oil Fundamentals
Carley joined Chris Beers of NTD News to discuss the oil market and how enhanced sanctions on Iran and countries buying oil from Iran might impact pricing. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

Live Economic News/Data

05/31/2025
Trump says U.S. will double steel tariffs to 50%
President Trump will hold a rally Friday at a U.S. Steel plant near Pittsburgh, one week after signaling he had cleared a merger with Japan's Nippon Steel.
05/30/2025
This is why Jamie Dimon is always so gloomy on the economy
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has regularly warned that the U.S. economy faces perils, but even as he sounds the alarm, his bank is doing better than ever.
05/31/2025
Stablecoins stole the show at Bitcoin 2025 — here's what the major players said
Stablecoins stole the spotlight at Bitcoin 2025, as U.S. officials backed new legislation to enshrine digital dollars.

Notices

05/23/2025
Memorial Day Holiday Trading Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the US Futures Markets will be closed on Monday, the 26th, for Memorial Day.
05/06/2025
Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas from July 15th through 17th!
Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas from July 15th through 17th!
04/15/2025
The US Futures Markets will be closed on Friday the 18th in Observance of Good Friday.
We will be out of the office on Friday, April 18th, in observance of Good Friday.

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 05/30/2025
Markets volatile as trade and geopolitical tensions escalate. 5/30/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/30/2025
S&P 500 futures hold above 5900; Powell, jobs and retail earnings ahead. 5/30/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/30/2025
10-Year yields hit lowest since May 9th, Powell and jobs data next week. 5/30/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/30/2025
Copper rebounds as appeals court blocks tariff ruling, dollar rebounds. 5/30/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/30/2025
Canadian dollar rallies; strong GDP and BOC decision ahead. 5/30/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/30/2025
WTI crude dips for 2nd session as OPEC+ weighs supply boost. 5/30/25
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

News & Research

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.