Recommendations

10/17/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy long-dated, cheap, corn calls.
We are hearing many farmers still have some of last year's crop in the bin on top of the current year's harvest piling up. Yet, this isn't necessarily shocking news to the market. In fact, we have probably been pricing this in for months...everyone knows harvest is in the fall. Every. Single. Year. Corn is probably worth a nibble.
10/08/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Quick thoughts on oil and implied volatility.
Thus far, we haven’t seen any meaningful supply disruptions due to recent events in the Middle East. The overreaction is likely more of a short covering event than a fundamental game-changer. The oil market and market participants adopted a sell-the-rally mentality in 2024; as prices fell into the mid-$60.00s, speculators held one of the most minor net long positions in decades. Quick thoughts on oil and implied volatility.
10/02/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy long-dated, cheap, puts in live cattle.
Seasonality calls for higher cattle prices, and speculators are only mildly long the market, so we understand where the bulls are coming from. Yet, charts rarely lie. We've only seen cattle this overbought on two other occasions in recent years, and the result wasn't positive (for the bulls). Further, today's highs are near a trendline that has yet to falter. Cattle futures are being dragged higher by a firm cash market, but can it last?
10/01/2024
Strategy Idea...Bearish bean spreads for hedgers or specs.
In mid-August, soybean futures were in freefall, and analysts were calling for $8.00 beans. Since then, we have seen the market recover nicely. However, our charts suggest the buying could be limited to about $10.80 in November (a little higher in January). This figure was determined by a pivot line separating the bulls and the bears. We suspect the rally will struggle to press above it, particularly the first time. Thus, we like playing the downside with some room for error (60 cents, to be exact). The harvest low came early, but there are significant headwinds ahead.
09/26/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy long-dated, cheap, puts in sugar.
23-cent sugar is a whopper of a price (no pun intended); historically, this market is more comfortable under 20 cents. We wouldn't swing for the fence, but sugar futures will likely give back a good chunk of the recent rally. The seasonal sugar rally came fast and early, but we have to wonder whether fundamentals can sustain pricing.
09/26/2024
Strategy Idea...Get long Treasuries (this hedges short gold positions)
The bond market has experienced some "buy the rumor, sell the fact" price action following the Fed's historic interest rate cut. However, we suspect dip buyers will step in near the trendline. Although investors haven't been forced out of risky assets, they might feel the need to move money out of the money market or short-term debt securities to lock in consistent yield in their portfolios. We believe the uptrend in Treasuries will remain intact (lower yields).

Newsletters

10/03/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Something big is happening in Treasuries.
If something wild happens in the coming months, we can’t say there weren’t signs. The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) portrays an unfathomably significant net short position in the 10-year note Treasury futures contract held by Large Speculators and Leveraged Funds. Not only is it the largest bearish position ever held by these categories of market participants, but it also dwarfs most previous instances. If something wild happens in the coming months, we can’t say there weren’t signs. The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) portrays an unfathomably significant net short position in the 10-year note Treasury futures contract held by Large Speculators and Leveraged Funds. Not only is it the largest bearish position ever held by these categories of market participants, but it also dwarfs most previous instances.
09/16/2024
Black and Yellow Gold
We have turned our attention to the two quintessential commodities: crude oil and gold. As we generally do, we are paying attention to what the Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission tells us. Black, and yellow, gold.
09/06/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Funds are over their skis in these two markets.
In the long run, fundamentals matter. In the short run, the reality can be skewed by aggressive market participant positioning. Before complaining about speculators and how they sometimes temporarily distort pricing, we should recognize that the pendulum swings both ways. Positioning matters; funds are over their skis in these two markets.
08/27/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Grain market rundown.
So much for the commodity Supercycle; a few years ago, grain markets such as corn, wheat, and soybeans were at, or near, all-time highs. Few fundamental analysts were willing to accept the prospects of high prices curing high prices; at the time, the world’s breadbasket, Ukraine, was under attack, and speculative money was flowing into the ag markets from investors desperate to hedge price inflation. A few years later, the despair of the boom and bust commodity pattern is being felt in growing regions. Grain Market Rundown
08/13/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Coffee Prices are high but will likely get higher next spring.
We don’t highlight the soft markets often for many reasons, including the fact that they trade on a different exchange than most products (ICE). In our view, this futures exchange is unfriendly to retail traders (who are our bread and butter). The ICE exchange charges wildly high fees for live price data, which leaves the majority of retail traders utilizing 10 to 15-minute delayed data to make trading decisions; in the 1990s, this was fine, but in the 2020s, it’s subpar. Coffee Prices are high but will likely get higher next spring.
08/01/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Mid-year Commodity Rundown Part 2
I don’t know much, but I do know to take note when markets become too quiet. Markets are living, breathing things that survive on human emotions for price discovery. As we are all reminded of daily by a crazy uncle, a parent, or a child, humans are emotional creatures. We go through lulls, but eventually, something triggers us into misbehaving. Mid-Year Commodity Rundown Part 2

Futures Chart Analysis

EGC ~ Monthly
6J ~ Monthly
Corn vs ES
ES ~ Weekly

DeCarley Press

10/17/2024
Something big is happening in Treasuries and Gold, Carley talked about it on Ausbiz
Traders and even funds hold the most significant net short position ever seen in Treasury futures. This is an aggressive position to "fight the Fed"; do they know something we don't, or will it be unwound to push rates lower and Treasuries higher? CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
09/17/2024
There are good arguments for being a gold bear and an oil bull
Carley joined Schwab Network this morning to discuss the potential for trend reversals in gold and oil futures. According to the COT report, both markets are experiencing extreme positioning and appear to be at critical technical junctures. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS INTERVIEW
09/11/2024
Ags and stocks are negatively correlated...Here is why.
Carley Garner joined RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady to discuss how large funds and institutions have transitioned from an inflation trade to a deflation trade. As speculators pile into the trend, the result is a strong negative correlation between stocks and corn/soybean futures. Carley Garner joined RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady to discuss how large funds and institutions have transitioned from an inflation trade to a deflation trade. As speculators pile into the trend, the result is a strong negative correlation between stocks and corn/soybean futures.
08/29/2024
High commodity prices cure high prices, and vice versa.
Carley Garner joined the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV to discuss the nature of commodity booms and busts along with the importance of hedging price risk (when you can, not when you must). Click this link to view the video.
08/29/2024
Surviving in the commodity industry with Michael Melissinos
Many people try their hand at the futures and options brokerage industry, but few can stick around for long. I talked about the hardships and victories of being a small business owner in the commodity industry with Michael Melissinos on the Talking Trends Podcast.

Notices

07/01/2024
Independence Day Trading Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
06/13/2024
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
04/25/2024
IMPORTANT INFO REGARDING THE MIGRATION TO MY.STONEX.COM
ALL CLIENTS WILL BE MOVED FROM THE LEGACY MYACCOUNT.GAINFUTURES.COM TO THE MY.STONEX.COM PORTAL OVER THE WEEKEND

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/08/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/17/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

10/18/2024
Intel seeks billions for minority stake in Altera business, sources say
This move that would represent a sharp about face from its earlier public messaging about the larger company's prospects.
10/17/2024
Netflix third-quarter subscribers barely beat estimates as ad-tier members jump 35%
Netflix's ad-tier memberships jumped 35%. The company is on track to launch the service in Canada in the coming quarter and more broadly in 2025.
10/18/2024
Amazon cloud boss says employees unhappy with 5-day office mandate can leave
Amazon's cloud boss on Thursday told employees who are unhappy with the company's new five-day in-office mandate they can leave for other companies.

Futures Market News

Posted on 10/18/2024
ECB Slashes Rates: What's Next for the Eurozone?
CME Group
Posted on 10/17/2024
November Soybean futures reverse higher amid good harvest weather. 10/17/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/17/2024
December Lean Hogs close near unchanged Friday’s export sales data. 10/17/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/17/2024
Retail sales data pushes S&P 500 futures to all-time highs before pulling back. 10/17/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/17/2024
Strong jobless claims, manufacturing data pressure Treasury futures. 10/17/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/17/2024
Natural Gas futures sink to 3-week lows as weather forecasts suggest light demand next week. 10/17/2
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.