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Recommendations

06/18/2026
Strategy Idea...Yen intervention call options
The market doesn't seem to think the BOJ will repeat past behavior, which was only a temporary fix. But it doesn't cost much to be there if it does. Call options are surprisingly cheap. We can buy August near-the-money calls for less than the price of a nice room on the Las Vegas Strip. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
06/12/2026
Strategy Idea...Seasonal hog buy with insurance.
Sometimes, ag contracts see trend reversals when one contract goes off the board as traders roll from one to the other. The hog roll is selling June futures and buying August. With August nearing its seasonal low in a few weeks and with the November lows acting as support, it feels like an opportunity to go long August hog futures with insurance. After all, beef prices remain stubbornly high; we doubt consumers will refuse to substitute their proteins. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
06/12/2026
Strategy Idea...Nibbling on new crop beans.
Fund liquidation ahead of bearish seasonality brought beans to support levels.
06/04/2026
Strategy Idea...Buying new crop corn
As we learned in 2022, war rallies ruin the grain markets. In 2022, and to a lesser extent in 2026, war pulls a lot of commodity-tourist money into the long side of grains by funds and investors looking to hedge inflation or profit from it. Then, when they leave for the next destination, farmers are left holding the bag. We don't like it, but we can't change it. In any case, speculator liquidation has brought December corn to its trendline. This should be a place for the bulls to take positions with plenty of time and a favorable risk/reward profile. Speculators are liquidating corn; the new crop looks attractive for a bullish play.
06/01/2026
Strategy Idea...Low-stakes wheat spread.
Strategy Idea...Low-stakes wheat spread.
05/28/2026
Strategy Idea...Own a little gold with mitigated risk.
Strategy Idea...Own a little gold with mitigated risk.

Newsletters

06/16/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?
With politicians giving everyone so much to talk about, the strength of the US dollar has gone largely unnoticed. There was a time when King Dollar lived up to its name; how the global currency market priced the dollar dictated how most other assets were valued. Things have changed a bit, mostly because government programs and Central Bank policies have distorted the currency markets The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?
06/10/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Additional thoughts on the indices
The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; this is a trendline that posed significant resistance for several months before finally failing in early May. Now that the S&P is trading above it, it will act as support. Unfortunately, if the market can’t hold 7250, there aren’t any reliable support levels until we get back to the bottom of the range, currently at 6250. 6800 lured modest buying in 2025, so it might slow down the selling, but it likely…
06/09/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer
We are witnessing stock market history. The older generation, me included, has seen this movie end. But as the last few years have taught us, nobody knows when and where it ends. Further, those exercising precautions to avoid a 30% to 50% haircut might find that, when that haircut comes, it merely takes prices down to where they began allocating away from stocks. Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer
06/05/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.
Not surprisingly, war markets bring volatility to the commodity sector. However, it is challenging to paint the aftermath as beneficial for anyone. As was the case in mid-to-late 2022, I find myself asking, “what are we even doing?” The hot money chasing assets not only interferes with logical price discovery but also impacts commodity producers, many of whom are family farms. Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.
05/28/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Commodity Round Table
2025 and 2026 have aged those of us in the industry by at least a decade; suddenly, 40s are the new 50s. Excessive volatility has made it hard to keep up with market movements when dedicating newsletters to a single commodity; thus, we will continue to feature multiple markets in our write-ups to ensure we cover most bases. We are in a hot money market in which participants have been trained to chase assets rather than invest in them.
05/21/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering
The economic numbers look great, but I must wonder how we are getting there. In other words, what is going on under the hood that is allowing the system to squeeze blood from a turnip? I could be wrong, but I suspect it is much darker and more dangerous than most people believe. In 2007, I vividly remember the economic numbers firing on all cylinders until they didn’t. The aggressive government home-buying programs and risky investment products behind the scenes made the housing market look like it was booming, when it was artificial. Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

Futures Chart Analysis

Crude Oil ~ Daily
Dollar ~ Monthly
S&P 500 ~ Daily
Crude Oil ~ Daily

Cow Guy Close

See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

06/18/2026
Join us in Las Vegas for the MoneyShow!
It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :) It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :)
06/18/2026
Carley joined Ausbiz to talk about a dollar brekout
I joined @ausbiztv last night (morning in the AU) to talk about a potential breakout in the dollar. A stronger greenback changes the entire landscape, shifting from a tailwind for assets such as gold and stocks to a headwind. I also wrote about this in our client newsletter (and Substack) earlier this week. The currency markets might matter again.
06/10/2026
Is the screwworm fiasco already priced into cattle futures?
Stock and I discussed this on today's Cow Guy Close. Hint...I think it probably is. https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/erASrleY
06/01/2026
Shorten your commodity option trading learning curve.
I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity. I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity.
06/01/2026
Catch Carley Garner and Phil Flynn at the MoneyShow talking about Crude Oil
I'll never forget the first time I spoke to Phil Flynn as a young and green commodity broker in 2004. We both worked for the same (now defunct) futures and options brokerage, and he was a television celebrity. I couldn't have imagined what the future would hold... both of us on the cover of the MoneyShow publication and co-hosting a class on crude oil at an event in Las Vegas. We would love to see you there! I'll never forget the first time I spoke to Phil Flynn as a young and green commodity broker in 2004. We both worked for the same (now defunct) futures and options brokerage, and he was a television celebrity. I couldn't have imagined what the future would hold... both of us on the cover of the MoneyShow publication and co-hosting a class on crude oil at an event in Las Vegas. We would love to see you there!

Live Economic News/Data

06/21/2026
Iran reportedly closes Strait of Hormuz again as Vance heads to Switzerland for talks
Iran's joint military command said the closure was in response to continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
06/20/2026
AI buildout gives tech investors new reasons to watch bond market
Tech giants are depleting cash reserves and raising debt in their ambitious data center buildouts, a dynamic that's forcing investors to watch interest rates.
06/20/2026
The budget airline model in the U.S. is running out of runway
Spirit's bankruptcy as United and Delta fly high suggests there's more to success in airline industry than low fares, and failure isn't about jet fuel spikes.

Notices

06/15/2026
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, June 19th, in observance of Juneteenth
05/22/2026
Memorial Day Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, May 25.
04/28/2026
Subscribe to the DeCarley Perspective Substack for Commentary and Trading Ideas
For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month. DeCarley Trading brokerage clients receive our newsletters for free as long as their account is open and active. For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month.

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 06/19/2026
Geopolitical pivots and key inflation data set the stage. 6/18/26.
CME Group
Posted on 06/19/2026
Soybean futures slip as Midwest storms raise crop damage questions. 6/18/26
CME Group
Posted on 06/18/2026
Live Cattle futures fell as marketings exposed tight supply. 6/18/26
CME Group
Posted on 06/18/2026
Equity futures rose as markets weighed a potential rate hike. 6/18/26
CME Group
Posted on 06/17/2026
How Traders Are Using CME Weekly Options to See Around Corners
CME Group
Posted on 06/17/2026
Livestock futures hold steady as cattle markets reflect solid demand. 6/17/26
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

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