DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

06/04/2026

Strategy Idea...Buying new crop corn

As we learned in 2022, war rallies ruin the grain markets. In 2022, and to a lesser extent in 2026, war pulls a lot of commodity-tourist money into the long side of grains by funds and investors looking to hedge inflation or profit from it. Then, when they leave for the next destination, farmers are left holding the bag. We don't like it, but we can't change it. In any case, speculator liquidation has brought December corn to its trendline. This should be a place for the bulls to take positions with plenty of time and a favorable risk/reward profile. Speculators are liquidating corn; the new crop looks attractive for a bullish play.

06/01/2026

Strategy Idea...Low-stakes wheat spread.

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Own a little gold with mitigated risk.

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Short term bullish corn play.

In the bigger picture, we are bearish on both oil and corn. However, the pattern has been switchback range trading. We can expect that to continue as long as it doesn't; thus far, it seems it will. Further, corn futures are holding weekly support, and the July options are pretty darn cheap. We like buying an at-the-money corn call for about 11 cents. If corn rallies, it will be similar to being long a futures contract but with limited risk.

05/27/2026

Strategy Idea...Another bearish S&P play

If you were able to exit the previous S&P 500 strategy with a profit, or have been sidelined waiting for an idea to play the downside as a speculation or portfolio hedge, we like using August week 3 (Friday expiration) options to construct a bear put spread with a naked leg. This strategy carries unlimited risk beyond the naked call; unless you are long the equivalent of roughly $375,000 in similarly allocated stock in your investment portfolio. In that case, you are essentially giving up gains above the short call strike. Strategy Idea...Another bearish S&P play

05/19/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy August Corn Puts

We like getting back into corn.

06/10/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Additional thoughts on the indices

The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; this is a trendline that posed significant resistance for several months before finally failing in early May. Now that the S&P is trading above it, it will act as support. Unfortunately, if the market can’t hold 7250, there aren’t any reliable support levels until we get back to the bottom of the range, currently at 6250. 6800 lured modest buying in 2025, so it might slow down the selling, but it likely…

06/09/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer

We are witnessing stock market history. The older generation, me included, has seen this movie end. But as the last few years have taught us, nobody knows when and where it ends. Further, those exercising precautions to avoid a 30% to 50% haircut might find that, when that haircut comes, it merely takes prices down to where they began allocating away from stocks. Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer

06/05/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

Not surprisingly, war markets bring volatility to the commodity sector. However, it is challenging to paint the aftermath as beneficial for anyone. As was the case in mid-to-late 2022, I find myself asking, “what are we even doing?” The hot money chasing assets not only interferes with logical price discovery but also impacts commodity producers, many of whom are family farms. Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

05/28/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Commodity Round Table

2025 and 2026 have aged those of us in the industry by at least a decade; suddenly, 40s are the new 50s. Excessive volatility has made it hard to keep up with market movements when dedicating newsletters to a single commodity; thus, we will continue to feature multiple markets in our write-ups to ensure we cover most bases. We are in a hot money market in which participants have been trained to chase assets rather than invest in them.

05/21/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

The economic numbers look great, but I must wonder how we are getting there. In other words, what is going on under the hood that is allowing the system to squeeze blood from a turnip? I could be wrong, but I suspect it is much darker and more dangerous than most people believe. In 2007, I vividly remember the economic numbers firing on all cylinders until they didn’t. The aggressive government home-buying programs and risky investment products behind the scenes made the housing market look like it was booming, when it was artificial. Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

05/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...E-mini stock indices, crude, and gold.

I realize there is an entire generation of young market participants who are convinced they are better investors than Warren Buffett, who is hoarding cash as they are hoarding risky assets. To be fair, this market has favored risk-takers, bandwagon traders, and those who aren’t afraid to concentrate their wealth in a handful of stocks or alternative assets; gold, silver, crypto, and tech stocks all took turns going parabolic. However, those of us who have been around for a while know that something is wrong. We’ve renamed the pivot line to account for market insanity.

06/10/2026

Is the screwworm fiasco already priced into cattle futures?

Stock and I discussed this on today's Cow Guy Close. Hint...I think it probably is. https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/erASrleY

06/01/2026

Shorten your commodity option trading learning curve.

I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity. I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity.

06/01/2026

Catch Carley Garner and Phil Flynn at the MoneyShow talking about Crude Oil

I'll never forget the first time I spoke to Phil Flynn as a young and green commodity broker in 2004. We both worked for the same (now defunct) futures and options brokerage, and he was a television celebrity. I couldn't have imagined what the future would hold... both of us on the cover of the MoneyShow publication and co-hosting a class on crude oil at an event in Las Vegas. We would love to see you there! I'll never forget the first time I spoke to Phil Flynn as a young and green commodity broker in 2004. We both worked for the same (now defunct) futures and options brokerage, and he was a television celebrity. I couldn't have imagined what the future would hold... both of us on the cover of the MoneyShow publication and co-hosting a class on crude oil at an event in Las Vegas. We would love to see you there!

05/27/2026

Gold is falling out of favor in a hot money market.

Scott and Carley discussed gold while wearing a Gold(en) Knights sweater. Gold is probably repeating the 2020 Treasury blow-off top playbook. Scott and Carley discussed gold while wearing a Gold(en) Knights sweater. Gold is probably repeating the 2020 Treasury blow-off top playbook. Check out the video- https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/tgBTVkRG

05/06/2026

The crude oil chart is our only hope, Scott and Carley discuss on Cow Guy Close

It is impossible to keep up with fundamentals in oil; the story changes daily. Just last night, the President posted on Truth Social, which required a lot of creative interpretation. But if we assume that markets are all-knowing and that some members of society receive inside information before we do, the chart is our only reliable guide. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO

06/12/2026

From startup to $1.8 trillion: The investors who took a chance on SpaceX now reap the rewards

With SpaceX seeking an IPO valuation of nearly $1.8 trillion, early bets are poised to generate some of the biggest paper gains in venture capital history.

06/12/2026

Oil prices fall on hopes of U.S.-Iran deal despite Tehran pushback

Oil prices fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington had reached a framework agreement with Iran, raising hopes that tensions in the Middle East could ease.

06/12/2026

A Chinese start-up's unfolding dilemma exposes cracks in Beijing's tech funding machine

While the U.S. channels support to tech winners indirectly via incentives, Chinese governments at every level take direct equity stakes.

05/22/2026

Memorial Day Schedule

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, May 25.

04/28/2026

Subscribe to the DeCarley Perspective Substack for Commentary and Trading Ideas

For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month. DeCarley Trading brokerage clients receive our newsletters for free as long as their account is open and active. For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month.