DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

06/04/2026

Strategy Idea...Buying new crop corn

As we learned in 2022, war rallies ruin the grain markets. In 2022, and to a lesser extent in 2026, war pulls a lot of commodity-tourist money into the long side of grains by funds and investors looking to hedge inflation or profit from it. Then, when they leave for the next destination, farmers are left holding the bag. We don't like it, but we can't change it. In any case, speculator liquidation has brought December corn to its trendline. This should be a place for the bulls to take positions with plenty of time and a favorable risk/reward profile. Speculators are liquidating corn; the new crop looks attractive for a bullish play.

06/01/2026

Strategy Idea...Low-stakes wheat spread.

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Own a little gold with mitigated risk.

05/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Short term bullish corn play.

In the bigger picture, we are bearish on both oil and corn. However, the pattern has been switchback range trading. We can expect that to continue as long as it doesn't; thus far, it seems it will. Further, corn futures are holding weekly support, and the July options are pretty darn cheap. We like buying an at-the-money corn call for about 11 cents. If corn rallies, it will be similar to being long a futures contract but with limited risk.

05/27/2026

Strategy Idea...Another bearish S&P play

If you were able to exit the previous S&P 500 strategy with a profit, or have been sidelined waiting for an idea to play the downside as a speculation or portfolio hedge, we like using August week 3 (Friday expiration) options to construct a bear put spread with a naked leg. This strategy carries unlimited risk beyond the naked call; unless you are long the equivalent of roughly $375,000 in similarly allocated stock in your investment portfolio. In that case, you are essentially giving up gains above the short call strike. Strategy Idea...Another bearish S&P play

05/19/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy August Corn Puts

We like getting back into corn.

06/05/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

Not surprisingly, war markets bring volatility to the commodity sector. However, it is challenging to paint the aftermath as beneficial for anyone. As was the case in mid-to-late 2022, I find myself asking, “what are we even doing?” The hot money chasing assets not only interferes with logical price discovery but also impacts commodity producers, many of whom are family farms. Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

05/28/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Commodity Round Table

2025 and 2026 have aged those of us in the industry by at least a decade; suddenly, 40s are the new 50s. Excessive volatility has made it hard to keep up with market movements when dedicating newsletters to a single commodity; thus, we will continue to feature multiple markets in our write-ups to ensure we cover most bases. We are in a hot money market in which participants have been trained to chase assets rather than invest in them.

05/21/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

The economic numbers look great, but I must wonder how we are getting there. In other words, what is going on under the hood that is allowing the system to squeeze blood from a turnip? I could be wrong, but I suspect it is much darker and more dangerous than most people believe. In 2007, I vividly remember the economic numbers firing on all cylinders until they didn’t. The aggressive government home-buying programs and risky investment products behind the scenes made the housing market look like it was booming, when it was artificial. Economic Data is Thriving, but TikTok Might be an Indicator Worth Considering

05/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...E-mini stock indices, crude, and gold.

I realize there is an entire generation of young market participants who are convinced they are better investors than Warren Buffett, who is hoarding cash as they are hoarding risky assets. To be fair, this market has favored risk-takers, bandwagon traders, and those who aren’t afraid to concentrate their wealth in a handful of stocks or alternative assets; gold, silver, crypto, and tech stocks all took turns going parabolic. However, those of us who have been around for a while know that something is wrong. We’ve renamed the pivot line to account for market insanity.

05/07/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Black Gold (AKA Crude Oil) and Yellow Gold

While there is plenty of disagreement on the overall direction of oil, I think we can all agree that this is a day-to-day situation. Those attempting to make decisions based on fundamentals are likely getting whiplash because the rally hinges on what is essentially a man-made crisis. Unlike weather, wars can be started and stopped on a dime, which complicates analysis. Black Gold (AKA Crude Oil) and Yellow Gold

04/29/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you think.

Ignoring the aspect of livestock gas emissions, there are few similarities between natural gas and live cattle futures. Yet, when we look under the hood, we can see some glaring parallels. Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you think.

06/01/2026

Shorten your commodity option trading learning curve.

I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity. I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity.

06/01/2026

Catch Carley Garner and Phil Flynn at the MoneyShow talking about Crude Oil

I'll never forget the first time I spoke to Phil Flynn as a young and green commodity broker in 2004. We both worked for the same (now defunct) futures and options brokerage, and he was a television celebrity. I couldn't have imagined what the future would hold... both of us on the cover of the MoneyShow publication and co-hosting a class on crude oil at an event in Las Vegas. We would love to see you there! I'll never forget the first time I spoke to Phil Flynn as a young and green commodity broker in 2004. We both worked for the same (now defunct) futures and options brokerage, and he was a television celebrity. I couldn't have imagined what the future would hold... both of us on the cover of the MoneyShow publication and co-hosting a class on crude oil at an event in Las Vegas. We would love to see you there!

05/27/2026

Gold is falling out of favor in a hot money market.

Scott and Carley discussed gold while wearing a Gold(en) Knights sweater. Gold is probably repeating the 2020 Treasury blow-off top playbook. Scott and Carley discussed gold while wearing a Gold(en) Knights sweater. Gold is probably repeating the 2020 Treasury blow-off top playbook. Check out the video- https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/tgBTVkRG

05/06/2026

The crude oil chart is our only hope, Scott and Carley discuss on Cow Guy Close

It is impossible to keep up with fundamentals in oil; the story changes daily. Just last night, the President posted on Truth Social, which required a lot of creative interpretation. But if we assume that markets are all-knowing and that some members of society receive inside information before we do, the chart is our only reliable guide. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO

04/22/2026

Oligopolies in fertilizer causing farmers to be price takers on both ends

Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers. Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers.

06/05/2026

Meta's stock sinks on report company could raise tens of billions of dollars to fund AI push

Meta shares dropped after the Financial Times reported the company could potentially raise tens of billions of dollars in a stock offering to help its AI push.

06/05/2026

Google to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers

Ahead of a planned IPO, SpaceX inked a deal to rent compute capacity to Google for $920 million per month for 32 months.

06/05/2026

Bitcoin cracks $60,000, sinking to lowest level since October 2024

The weeklong sell-off was exacerbated after a stronger-than-expected May jobs report Friday sent yields higher and pressured risk assets.

05/22/2026

Memorial Day Schedule

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, May 25.

04/28/2026

Subscribe to the DeCarley Perspective Substack for Commentary and Trading Ideas

For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month. DeCarley Trading brokerage clients receive our newsletters for free as long as their account is open and active. For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month.