DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

05/18/2026

Strategy Idea...Another bearish oil play

If you were able to exit the previous crude oil play with a profit or have been looking for a place to enter, this might be the time to give the downside a try. If you are holding the previous bearish play, we would suggest either sitting tight or considering buying back the short put and leaving the rest (short call and long put). Strategy Idea...Another bearish oil play

05/14/2026

Strategy Idea...Aggressive equity hedges.

It hasn't paid to be skeptical of the stock market rally. At some point, we might be talking about the 2026 rally like we do the early 2000s or the 2007ish timeframe. Or, this will be the exception to the Buffett rule, which suggests stocks shouldn't exceed about 150% of total GDP (right now we are at about 230% of GDP). I am not in the camp that thinks this time is different, but again, that has been the wrong take. Nevertheless, if you are a lonely bear or do have some stock market exposure you would like to hedge (a way to protect profits without selling shares to incur a taxable event), you can use a risk reversal strategy in which a call option (currently overpriced) can be sold to pay for a put option (currently underpriced). This allows traders to purchase a put option, otherwise priced at just under $3,000, using the market's money in exchange for risk above 8300. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

05/14/2026

Strategy Idea...Bear put spread in wheat

We had some luck with playing the downside in wheat against its trendline. Hopefully, you were able to take a moderate profit on the last venture into bear put spreads. We like putting a similar trade back on using the July options. According to MRCI, the last five years have seen a top in wheat, on average, right about now. Further, we see the RSI failing to make new highs while the underlying futures contract is. Lastly, we believe there was a lot of unsold wheat in bins coming into this season, farmers will likely want to lock in prices $2.00 off the lows. Unless Mother Nature throws us a curveball, we are likely seeing the highs of the season in wheat. Wheat enjoyed a friendly USDA report, but technical resistance looms.

05/08/2026

Strategy Idea...Lock in $5 corn

If you look at the July 2026 corn futures contract, it is easy to see that for almost a year and a half, the prices have spent most of their time between $4.60 and $4.90. So, for all the questioning of the USDA report estimates, StoneX yield estimates, and fund inflows/outflows, that deferred contract had it right all along, while the front months were squeezing market participants on both sides. Deferred commodity months are a smoother ride at higher prices.

05/06/2026

Strategy Idea...Live Cattle re-entry for bears or producers.

05/04/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish collars in September corn

05/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...E-mini stock indices, crude, and gold.

I realize there is an entire generation of young market participants who are convinced they are better investors than Warren Buffett, who is hoarding cash as they are hoarding risky assets. To be fair, this market has favored risk-takers, bandwagon traders, and those who aren’t afraid to concentrate their wealth in a handful of stocks or alternative assets; gold, silver, crypto, and tech stocks all took turns going parabolic. However, those of us who have been around for a while know that something is wrong. We’ve renamed the pivot line to account for market insanity.

05/07/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Black Gold (AKA Crude Oil) and Yellow Gold

While there is plenty of disagreement on the overall direction of oil, I think we can all agree that this is a day-to-day situation. Those attempting to make decisions based on fundamentals are likely getting whiplash because the rally hinges on what is essentially a man-made crisis. Unlike weather, wars can be started and stopped on a dime, which complicates analysis. Black Gold (AKA Crude Oil) and Yellow Gold

04/29/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you think.

Ignoring the aspect of livestock gas emissions, there are few similarities between natural gas and live cattle futures. Yet, when we look under the hood, we can see some glaring parallels. Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you think.

04/23/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?

Early in the Iranian “excursion” war, most commodities followed oil higher. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, agricultural commodity markets such as corn, soybeans, and wheat experienced sharp rallies amid a hectic war market. While wheat had its own bullish narrative, Ukraine is sometimes referred to as the world’s breadbasket due to its robust production of the commodity; the others rallied primarily on cash inflows into commodity ETFs and funds. At the time, investors clamored for ways to hedge inflation risk. The money rotating into commodities allowed corn prices to reach levels above $8.00 per bushel, soybeans to nearly $18.00 per bushel, and soybean oil to just over $0.90 per pound. The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?

04/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Risk assets are rolling; blow-off top in copper and last hurrah for precious metals?

The equity market has made a miraculous recovery from recent lows. In fact, the market has traveled what is historically a year or more worth of gains in just 10 sessions, putting it in the 99.7th percentile of rallies. Not surprisingly, the rebound in risk assets has allowed correlated assets, such as metals (both precious and industrial), to track higher. We’ve been tabbing the correlation board for clues and have discovered that copper, gold, and silver have all been trading with a moderate positive correlation to the dollar and a healthy positive correlation to the S&P 500. We believe this opens the door to a continuation of the metals rally in the short run, but it will likely set up much larger setbacks. Risk assets are rolling; blow-off top in copper and last hurrah for precious metals?

04/07/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.

The two biggest precursors to a recession are an inverted yield curve and a sharp spike in oil prices. We are now contending with both. The 10-year yield was lower than the 2-year yield (inverted) from mid-2022 through mid-2024. This was the longest and deepest inversion on record. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that market participants favor long-term bonds as a hedge against potential future economic turmoil. Despite the recent 26-month inversion, this is a relatively rare occurrence. Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.

05/06/2026

The crude oil chart is our only hope, Scott and Carley discuss on Cow Guy Close

It is impossible to keep up with fundamentals in oil; the story changes daily. Just last night, the President posted on Truth Social, which required a lot of creative interpretation. But if we assume that markets are all-knowing and that some members of society receive inside information before we do, the chart is our only reliable guide. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO

04/22/2026

Oligopolies in fertilizer causing farmers to be price takers on both ends

Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers. Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers.

03/12/2026

Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.

This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.

03/12/2026

The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.

Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

02/26/2026

Scott and Carley discuss crude oil and the World Uncertainty Index

We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out. We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out.

05/19/2026

Home Depot says core shopper is resilient in the face of higher gas prices, sales rise 5%

Home Depot beat Wall Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines, even as some shoppers pulled back on larger projects.

05/19/2026

The AI economy is rewriting the American Dream — and blue-collar workers are poised to win

AI-driven hiring slowdowns are hitting some entry-level jobs for college graduates as companies like Ford and AT&T ramp up recruiting for skilled trade workers.

05/19/2026

2026 CNBC Disruptor 50: See the full list of companies, rankings, and a new leader in the AI race

CNBC reveals the 2026 Disruptor 50 list led by an increasingly powerful and highly valued group of AI companies.

04/28/2026

Subscribe to the DeCarley Perspective Substack for Commentary and Trading Ideas

For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month. DeCarley Trading brokerage clients receive our newsletters for free as long as their account is open and active. For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month.