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Recommendations

04/06/2026
Strategy Idea...May Corn War Play
The corn market has benefited from inflation trades, but has failed to keep up with oil. Funds are buying, but even with funds as long as they have been in a year, the rally has been disappointing. Yet the recent sell-off held support (breakout trendline and 200-day moving average) and appears poised for one more attempt at a rally. What happens with the Iran deadline tomorrow probably matters. We can play both sides with a bullish bias and very little risk. See below for details. Sorry so short; the market closes soon, and we want to get it out before it's too late. The corn market is offering a low-risk opportunity.
04/06/2026
Strategy Idea...May Feeder Cattle Bearish Spreads
*ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
03/31/2026
Strategy Idea...May Bean Strangles.
The bean market will likely pick a direction after the planting intentions report.
03/30/2026
Strategy Idea...Bearish Oil Plays.
We are operating on the premise that the 2026 oil war rally will end the same way the 2022 rally did. Of course, there are many scenarios in which this turns out to be wrong, but we believe the more likely outcome is that it will be right. The US is unsanctioning oil, Venezuelan oil is coming online faster than expected, retired offshore rigs off the coast of California are firing back up, etc. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
03/19/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy Yen calls for a bearish oil play.
If you want to play oil without the elevated risk... look at Yen options. If you want to play oil without the elevated risk... look at Yen options.
03/10/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...The art of chaos.
I hesitate to write or say anything about the oil market because it has made a fool of me, and of others who are smarter than I am. March and April have always been a hotbed of volatility in the energy markets. Some of the most notable oil moves were born during these two months. Notable examples include the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, the 2016 commodity bear market that ended in capitulation in oil, well into the $20.00s, the COVID fallout of 2020, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which spiked oil to $130.00 per barrel. The art of chaos.

Newsletters

04/07/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.
The two biggest precursors to a recession are an inverted yield curve and a sharp spike in oil prices. We are now contending with both. The 10-year yield was lower than the 2-year yield (inverted) from mid-2022 through mid-2024. This was the longest and deepest inversion on record. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that market participants favor long-term bonds as a hedge against potential future economic turmoil. Despite the recent 26-month inversion, this is a relatively rare occurrence. Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.
04/01/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”
When silver futures were ascending over $100 per ounce, we described the market as being “Gamestopped.” At the time, there was criticism of this opinion, suggesting it was not possible to manipulate a massive global commodity market such as silver in the same manner as an off-the-grid stock could be. However, we stand by our assessment. We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”
03/23/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...What if coffee is the new cocoa?
I recently hosted a class on coffee hedging for roasters and producers at the National Coffee Association convention in Tampa, Florida. I thought it made sense to share some of the content in our newsletter and update it for those new followers we gained at the event. What if coffee is the new cocoa?
03/18/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.
Although the commodity world has turned its attention to the energy sector, we wanted to provide an updated chart on the previous flash-in-the-pan commodity: gold. While I was scratching my head while gold rallied wildly in January, others are trying to figure out how gold is moving lower on news of a fresh war in the Middle East. This is textbook buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action. However, not everyone knew US and Israeli bombs would be dropping in Iran, but price action suggests someone probably did. Or at least they had a reason to believe it was a real possibility. For instance, China hoarded both gold and oil going into the conflict. As they say, markets, and therefore charts, are all-knowing. Even if the news isn’t public yet, there are those behind the scenes preparing for it. By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.
03/12/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...We don’t know what will happen next, but we have history as a guide.
We will keep this newsletter short and sweet. Just in case you haven’t noticed, nobody knows what will happen in the markets or on the political stage. Everyone is guessing. However, we can at least use history as our guide. Oil shocks have historically been associated with stock market weakness. We don’t know what will happen next, but we have history as a guide.
03/04/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...On the way down, $75.00 oil was too cheap; on the way up, it is a “shock.”
Perception of price is extremely relative. Just 18 months ago, as oil was slicing through $75.00 on its way to $55.00, the bulls on X and television were convinced that oil couldn’t drop below the cost of production, which was assumed to be near $70.00. On the way down, $75.00 oil was too cheap; on the way up, it is a “shock.”

Futures Chart Analysis

ECL ~ Monthly
Silver or GameStop?
Crude Oil Curve
NQ ~ Weekly

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DeCarley Press

03/12/2026
Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.
This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.
03/12/2026
The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.
Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
02/26/2026
Scott and Carley discuss crude oil and the World Uncertainty Index
We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out. We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out.
01/15/2026
What's going on in silver?
I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
12/19/2025
Is the government helping or hurting farmers and markets?
Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP

Live Economic News/Data

04/12/2026
Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail
Trump said the U.S. blockade will stop Iran from policing the strait and benefiting economically while the rest of the world suffers from its closure.
04/11/2026
Berkshire electric utility's court win could save it billions
PacifiCorp court win could reduce wildfire damages by $1 billion or more.
04/11/2026
How Kodak is trying to turn around its business after teetering on bankruptcy
Photography company Eastman Kodak has seen its fair share of financial struggles, but CEO Jim Continenza is determined to fuel its success.

Notices

04/07/2026
Tonight's Event Risk
Tonight's deadline for Iran to open the Straits could trigger volatility.
04/02/2026
Good Friday Holiday Trading Schedule 2026
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, April 3rd, in observance of Good Friday.
02/12/2026
IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING OUR AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK
Carley has been offered an opportunity she couldn't refuse. She will be hosting the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV from their studio in Nashville on Friday, February 20th, and Monday, February 23rd. Scott needs a break! Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones for a few days in late February.

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 04/10/2026
WTI Crude Oil futures snap 5-week streak amid Hormuz talks. 4/10/26
CME Group
Posted on 04/10/2026
Falling yields and commodity volatility set the stage for next week. 4/10/26.
CME Group
Posted on 04/10/2026
Live Cattle futures hit new contract highs. 4/10/26
CME Group
Posted on 04/10/2026
Silver futures tested resistance as geopolitical concerns eased. 4/10/26
CME Group
Posted on 04/10/2026
Energy and metals markets focus on pending peace talks. 4/10/26.
CME Group
Posted on 04/09/2026
Live Cattle futures reach new contract high on strong exports. 4/9/26
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

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