07/28/2026
Strategy Idea...Crude Oil Butterflies
*ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Recommendations
07/27/2026
Strategy Idea...Bullish Live Cattle Play
In the big picture, years and months, not days and weeks, we believe the cattle market has probably seen its highs for this cycle. But, when we look at the weekly chart, we see a market testing a trendline where it has habitually found buyers. We also see a bullish seasonal tendency for August in cash cattle. Lastly, just like the screwworm crossing the border completed a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact phenomenon, the opening of the Mexican border likely completed a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact process. In other words, we think it is time to give the upside in live cattle a shot using bull call spreads with a naked put to finance the trade (details below). *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
07/22/2026
Strategy Idea...Bearish flyers in "coppa"
The aggressive AI buildout has been a boon for the copper industry. The industrial metal is a great conductor of electricity and cooling. AI data centers require substantial amounts of copper to combat extreme thermal loads. The metal is also useful in electric vehicles and renewable energy sources. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
07/20/2026
Strategy Idea...Getting Bearish in Oil
Violent flare-ups in Iran have triggered a $20.00 oil short squeeze in a relatively short time. This was a needed correction. As we stated in previous newsletters, the USO ETF traders held a large net short position in addition to short call options; as we know, commodities don't make it easy on anyone... especially the overleveraged. Further, we often see short squeezes into contract expiration get reversed. The August WTI oil futures contract expires tomorrow, and our chart suggests that $86.00 (in the August contract) is highly pivotal. Thus, we like being bears up here with bear put spreads paid for by a short call (naked). See the details below. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
07/17/2026
Strategy Idea...Bearish Seasonal Wheat Play.
*ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
07/13/2026
Strategy Idea...Bearish November Bean Put Spreads w/Kicker
*ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Newsletters
07/23/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the stock market out of gas?
There are headlines circulating about large short seller positions in the equity market. We can see why they would want to be short, and we agree (we recently suggested a bearish option play). However, it should be noted that when short sellers are active, it often acts as fuel to the fire. Is the stock market out of gas?
07/17/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...All Markets Should Pay Attention to Kevin Warsh, but Particularly Stocks, Copper, and Ags.
Perhaps the single most important statement made all year was delivered by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Earlier this week, during a Congressional testimony, he said plainly and simply, “Inflation is a choice.” The new Fed Chair is the first to say out loud that the inflation problems we are experiencing today are the direct result of too much liquidity in the system. Those of us who have been around for a while remember the onset of Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to combat the Global Financial Crisis. These programs involve the government buying its own Treasury debt and were intended to be temporary. QE is designed to add liquidity to the system and keep asset prices afloat, in hopes that the wealth effect would encourage economic activity. Less liquidity means smaller rallies.
07/13/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...War headlines are back, but oil volatility isn’t what it was
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=1685883c-7eec-11f1-856c-310063760f3d&pt=campaign&t=1783969413&s=b3d5b23bbd073d652ecff0b34541edb42d2f14f6cf90defcf23df8f8ba81e877 War headlines are back, but oil volatility isn’t what it was
06/29/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Thinking Outside of the Box
One of the greatest developments in the futures markets during my two-decade-plus career is the advent of micro-sized futures contracts. Prior to micro futures, commodity speculators were forced into larger, more aggressive positions. Smaller contracts allow retail traders of any size or risk tolerance to dip their toes into the futures markets at a more comfortable pace. Thinking Outside of the Box: Protect Micro Futures with Full-Sized Options
06/26/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.
We dedicated an entire newsletter to the many similarities between what we see on our quote boards and in our lives today that resemble the years leading up to the global financial crisis; click here to review it. Considering the recent collapse in crude oil prices, we are compelled to compare today’s oil market to the 2008 market. History should not be ignored because it tends to be repeated. Even though the factors driving market prices differ slightly, the patterns and, eventually, the outcome are likely to be the same. Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.
06/16/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?
With politicians giving everyone so much to talk about, the strength of the US dollar has gone largely unnoticed. There was a time when King Dollar lived up to its name; how the global currency market priced the dollar dictated how most other assets were valued. Things have changed a bit, mostly because government programs and Central Bank policies have distorted the currency markets The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?
Futures Chart Analysis
ESU26 ~ Daily
S&P 500
DX ~ Monthly
Gold ~ Intraday
DeCarley Press
07/30/2026
Option butterflies are underrated, especially in the most volatile crude oil market of our lives
With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close. With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close.
07/23/2026
War and political risk priced back into crude oil, now what?
While everyone is focused on supply issues in oil, we are looking at demand destruction and the US dollar rally. What a wild ride 2026 has been for oil traders!
07/08/2026
Coffee market volatility reminds us that markets seek and destroy leverage and weak hands
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
06/22/2026
Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans in San Francisco for the MoneyShow in August!
This multi-day event takes place at the Fairmont San Francisco, perched atop Nob Hill. Not only will there be opportunities for great sightseeing, but some of the industry's most popular names will be there, including Victoria Greene, Larry McDonald, Jim Bianco, Eric Balchunas, and more.
06/18/2026
Join us in Las Vegas for the MoneyShow!
It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :) It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :)
Live Economic News/Data
07/30/2026
Amazon hikes 2026 capex to $220 billion due to higher memory costs
AWS sales expanded 37% year over year, which trounced analysts' expectations for 31% growth.
07/30/2026
AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say
Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund has sold all of its public stock holdings, according to people familiar with the matter.
07/30/2026
Reddit shares sink 11% on 'choppy' search referrals even as results blow past estimates
Reddit reported second-quarter earnings that beat on the top and the bottom, and gave a revenue forecast that topped estimates.
Notices
07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA
06/23/2026
DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!
The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 07/30/2026
Is the S&P 500 quietly becoming a tech index?
CME Group
Posted on 07/29/2026
How AI is Transforming the Way People Trade at Nelogica
CME Group
Posted on 07/29/2026
Nasdaq-100 futures fall into correction territory as the Fed holds rates. 7/29/26
CME Group
Posted on 07/29/2026
Wheat futures rebounded as Soybean and Corn futures declined. 7/29/26
CME Group
Posted on 07/29/2026
Live Cattle futures rebounded as extreme heat reduced supplies. 7/29/26
CME Group
Posted on 07/28/2026
The 3 Factors Driving the Treasury Market Pre-Fed
CME Group
