02/03/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy Live Cattle Puts
Strategy Idea...Buy Live Cattle Puts Live cattle futures are testing the downtrend line, and the greenback is showing signs of strength.
Recommendations
01/15/2026
Strategy Idea...Buy wheat calls, they are cheap.
We doubt we'll see $13.00 wheat again anytime soon; in fact, I suspect I'll be retired or dead before it happens again. The 2008 and 2022 runs above $10.00 were flukish. Yet, $5.00 wheat is insanely cheap for a stable commodity. Seasonality is mildly supportive for the next two months, and speculators are sitting on historically large net short positions. This is a recipe for an upside-surprise. Wheat prices are a far cry from their 2022 high.
01/09/2026
Strategy Idea...Short Micro CL with Protection
The more oil futures knock on $55.00, the higher the likelihood the basement door opens up and trade washes out. We have noted that historically, oil futures have performed poorly below $65.00, with support in the low $40.00s. However, the last three bear markets have ended with prices breaking much lower, leaving under $20.00 as a possibility. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
12/31/2025
Strategy Idea...Flyers in the S&P 500
The VIX is near multi-year lows, and stocks are at all-time highs. Maybe something cracks.
12/30/2025
Strategy Idea...Put Flyers in Crude
In a recent issue of the DeCarley Perspective (CLICK HERE TO READ), we outlined reasons we believe the oil market could find itself in a price spiral to its two-decade trendline. Of course, this is not a guarantee, but if this bear market ends as the previous three have, we could easily see oil at $15.00 per barrel. Hear us out....Oil might collapse to its trendline.
12/15/2025
Strategy Idea...Long March soybean calls
Like corn, soybeans typically go up this time of year.
Newsletters
01/27/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Quick thoughts on Gold and Silver.
The last time silver behaved like this, the market was being cornered by the Hunt brothers. This time around, we are likely seeing something similar, but the culprits aren’t identifiable siblings. In addition to momentum traders who have piled onto the trend, it is likely that governments that took note when the US froze Russian assets on the heels of their invasion of Ukraine. In some cases, wealthy oligarchs with loose ties to Putin discovered that using the dollar as a reserve currency came with consequences. Quick thoughts on Gold and Silver.
01/22/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Quick Post-WASDE Grain and Livestock Chartwork
According to the latest WASDE Report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), we have too much corn and soybeans. Naturally, prices dropped sharply on the news. However, whatever happened last week in the grain markets probably feels worse than it is. Post-WASDE Report Ag Charts
01/15/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...What in the Wild West is going on in Silver?
There are fundamental narratives driving prices higher as buyers experience FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and even outright panic. However, from where I am sitting, and in my experience, there is no reasonable justification for parabolic price action in any market, and, in commodities, it has never been sustainable. Nevertheless, the reasons for buying gold and silver were sound; it is the magnitude and volatility of the move that are unusual. This is a commodity futures and options trading newsletter, and I wouldn’t be doing it justice without talking about the enormous metals rally of 2025, even if it means rubbing salt in my wounds. I had been vocal against the prospects of a historic metals rally, but I was wrong. As it turns out, gold and silver managed to deliver the kind of price appreciation not seen since 1979. Sometimes, low-probability events occur, and they have little mercy for anyone in their way, including those who have been around for a while.
01/08/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is Venezuela about Crude Oil, or Yield Curve Control and Affordability?
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=b6b67304-ecd2-11f0-a817-0b3a596cb0f4&pt=campaign&t=1767905589&s=a57d3d63e1da15823d15204c449fd9d1c682ee2a4fb82f53e2786b59fbb9d705 Is Venezuela about Crude Oil, or Yield Curve Control and Affordability?
01/05/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is Venezuelan oil coming online a game-changer?
It is too early to say how the experiment in Venezuela will end up on the commodity supply front, but in our view, it might be akin to an inflation “psyop” (psychological operation). For now, the direct impact on oil supply is inconsequential. Still, the hearts and minds of traders have likely been altered in the same way they were during the Biden administration, through the release of oil from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to thwart overzealous buyers. The oil drained to supply the market was a literal drop in the bucket relative to the global picture, but it changed the mindset of trade. Is Venezuelan oil coming online a game-changer?
12/22/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...What did we learn from last year’s corn market? Will cattle reprice as it did in 2014?
Corn futures expiring in March of 2026 are trading at the same level as the March 2025 contract was in late December 2024. The jury is still out on whether we repeat the same price pattern, but it is worth reminding ourselves of how it played out. Corn futures expiring in March of 2026 are trading at the same level as the March 2025 contract was in late December 2024. The jury is still out on whether we repeat the same price pattern, but it is worth reminding ourselves of how it played out.
Futures Chart Analysis
Dollar Index ~ Weekly
Silver Long Term
Gold Volatility
Gold ~ Monthly
DeCarley Press
01/15/2026
What's going on in silver?
I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
12/19/2025
Is the government helping or hurting farmers and markets?
Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
12/16/2025
Carley wouldn't try to call a bottom in crude oil yet.
The oil market isn't known for quiet bottoms. Instead, a significant bottom and subsequent bull market is only made possible by a capitulation in price and sentiment. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady discussed this on Cow Guy Close, which aired on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO
10/09/2025
Occidental (OXY) Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Continues to Fall
We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.
10/09/2025
Carley Garner joined Trading360 on Schwab to discuss the Occidental Petroleum deal with Berkshire Hathway
Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps
Live Economic News/Data
02/03/2026
Musk's xAI, SpaceX combo is the biggest merger of all time, valued at $1.25 trillion
The record-setting deal will be the largest merger of all time and is valued at $1.25 trillion
02/03/2026
Disney names parks boss Josh D’Amaro as its next CEO to succeed Bob Iger, effective March 18
Disney has named Josh D'Amaro, chairman of Disney Experiences, as its next CEO, succeeding Bob Iger and clinching a closely watched succession race.
02/03/2026
Ray Dalio warns the world is ‘on the brink’ of a capital war
The billionaire Bridgewater founder also weighed in on investing in gold after the metal was gripped by a sharp sell-off.
Notices
09/18/2025
Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones tomorrow.
Due to circumstances beyond our control (rescheduled flights at the discretion of the airline), we will not be in the office tomorrow.
08/29/2025
Labor Day Holiday Schedule
We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.
08/27/2025
Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?
We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 02/02/2026
Natural Gas futures reversed lower on warmer weather outlooks. 2/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 02/02/2026
Futures Unscripted: Steve Quirk - New Trader Mistakes
CME Group
Posted on 02/02/2026
Silver futures recovered from session lows as markets digest Fed Chair nominee. 2/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 02/02/2026
Soybeans futures fell as the U.S. dollar strengthened. 2/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 02/02/2026
Live Cattle futures rose as cash trade moved higher. 2/2/26
CME Group
Posted on 01/30/2026
Grains futures closed lower to end the month. 1/30/26
CME Group
