DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

09/15/2025

Strategy Idea...Bear put spreads with short calls in coffee.

Coffee futures are facing technical and seasonal headwinds.

09/11/2025

Strategy Idea...Puts in pigs are cheap.

Hog futures have benefited from the cattle run, but with resistance near, the rally could falter.

09/05/2025

Strategy Idea...If you took a quick profit on the S&P, we like putting it back on.

09/02/2025

Strategy Idea...Get back into bearish gold spreads.

The gold market appears to be getting a boost from thin holiday trade and a short squeeze. However, similar rallies have reversed sharply, and we suspect this one will too. The US dollar has likely bottomed, and the December contract has finally retested the 2025 high posted in April. Lastly, we continue to be in an environment of relatively high interest rates, which "should" pull safe-haven dollars from gold and put them into Treasuries. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

08/29/2025

Strategy Idea...Hedge portfolios or play the downside in the S&P

On nearly all metrics, the equity markets are grossly overvalued. Even more interesting is the high concentration of gains; most of the performance is coming from a handful of stocks. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

08/19/2025

Strategy Idea...Cheap flyers in crude oil make sense.

09/15/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Our favorite caffeinated beverage is hotter than ever.

Coffee futures have put on a volatility clinic over the last 12 months. At risk of being repetitive, everything is bigger and better in a post-2020 stimulus world. Like other assets, the global influx of liquidity has exacerbated upside volatility. Even so, we have seen the coffee market behave in this manner in the past, albeit on a more subdued scale, which was in 2011. Coffee futures have put on a volatility clinic over the last 12 months. At risk of being repetitive, everything is bigger and better in a post-2020 stimulus world. Like other assets, the global influx of liquidity has exacerbated upside volatility. Even so, we have seen the coffee market behave in this manner in the past, albeit on a more subdued scale, which was in 2011.

09/12/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Cash on the sidelines probably won’t chase asset prices higher.

Cash on the sidelines probably won’t chase asset prices higher.

09/05/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...This two-tiered economy has two inflation stories – Gold/Stocks vs. Lumber/Copper

If you have spent any time on social media, you’ve likely run across the stunning lumber futures charts and the strong opinions on what this might be signaling about the state of the economy. You’ve likely also encountered posts about the risks of another wave of inflation. Like politics, market opinions have become highly polarized and emotional. Ironically, both narratives can, and are, true. We are living in a time of both deflation and inflation simultaneously, depending on which assets or products you are looking at. This two-tiered economy has two inflation stories – Gold/Stocks vs. Lumber/Copper

09/02/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Silver is leading gold higher, but what happens next?

Today’s metals rally feels suspect to us. For starters, it was probably made possible by silver futures price-squeezing during an abbreviated and thinly traded holiday session. This might be the last hurrah for gold bulls.

08/29/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Risk Assets are on a Roll; Risk Assets are on a Roll, but Will it Last?

I pride myself on being an optimistic person and loathe the idea of being permanently bearish on a market that has generally risen since its inception. Yet, I have a hard time looking at a monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a positive outlook, at least in the short run. I pride myself on being an optimistic person and loathe the idea of being permanently bearish on a market that has generally risen since its inception. Yet, I have a hard time looking at a monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a positive outlook, at least in the short run. Furthermore, although not a scientific poll, anyone who has spent time on social media knows that there aren’t many stock market bears. In fact, I’ve encountered multiple lengthy and detailed threads insulting the intelligence of anyone who is not using leverage to buy stocks, either directly (through futures contracts or borrowing shares) or indirectly (by choosing not to pay off debt and instead investing that money in the stock market).

08/27/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Eye Spy a few Commodity Sleepers

Commodities are a feast or famine business, but it isn’t that often you see such simultaneous extremes. For instance, while livestock futures are rallying in a parabolic fashion, a few commodities have drifted lower to what would have been unfathomably low prices just a few years ago. Eye Spy a few Commodity Sleepers

09/08/2025

What is next for ags with the WASDE on tap?

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP

08/08/2025

Gold tariffs trigger overnight rally

Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show. Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show.

06/25/2025

Carley Garner on CyberTrading University

Carley had the opportunity to discuss her commodity market background and the futures and options brokerage business with @cybertradingu. Topics covered include stock indices, crude oil, precious metals, and other financial assets.

06/20/2025

Silver is not for the feint of heart...or even most traders.

I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today. I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today.

05/28/2025

If crude oil bottoms, it will be because of an unforeseen catalyst.

Carley Garner joined Alex Coffey of the Schwab Network to share her views on the oil market, which she doesn't find bullish. Without an OPEC put in place, and demand waning, oil prices could fall under $50.00 per barrel. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP.

09/17/2025

Here are five key takeaways from the Fed's big interest rate decision

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered on a widely anticipated quarter percentage point interest rate cut.

09/18/2025

ABC pulls Jimmy Kimmel show off air 'indefinitely' over Charlie Kirk comments

Jimmy Kimmel suggested that Tyler Robinson, the man accused of killing Charlie Kirk, was aligned with President Donald Trump's MAGA movement.

09/18/2025

European markets open higher as traders assess Fed interest rate cut

European stocks are expected to open higher on Thursday as traders digest the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut on Wednesday.

08/29/2025

Labor Day Holiday Schedule

We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.

08/27/2025

Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?

We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.