Recommendations

10/08/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Quick thoughts on oil and implied volatility.
Thus far, we haven’t seen any meaningful supply disruptions due to recent events in the Middle East. The overreaction is likely more of a short covering event than a fundamental game-changer. The oil market and market participants adopted a sell-the-rally mentality in 2024; as prices fell into the mid-$60.00s, speculators held one of the most minor net long positions in decades. Quick thoughts on oil and implied volatility.
10/02/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy long-dated, cheap, puts in live cattle.
Seasonality calls for higher cattle prices, and speculators are only mildly long the market, so we understand where the bulls are coming from. Yet, charts rarely lie. We've only seen cattle this overbought on two other occasions in recent years, and the result wasn't positive (for the bulls). Further, today's highs are near a trendline that has yet to falter. Cattle futures are being dragged higher by a firm cash market, but can it last?
10/01/2024
Strategy Idea...Bearish bean spreads for hedgers or specs.
In mid-August, soybean futures were in freefall, and analysts were calling for $8.00 beans. Since then, we have seen the market recover nicely. However, our charts suggest the buying could be limited to about $10.80 in November (a little higher in January). This figure was determined by a pivot line separating the bulls and the bears. We suspect the rally will struggle to press above it, particularly the first time. Thus, we like playing the downside with some room for error (60 cents, to be exact). The harvest low came early, but there are significant headwinds ahead.
09/26/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy long-dated, cheap, puts in sugar.
23-cent sugar is a whopper of a price (no pun intended); historically, this market is more comfortable under 20 cents. We wouldn't swing for the fence, but sugar futures will likely give back a good chunk of the recent rally. The seasonal sugar rally came fast and early, but we have to wonder whether fundamentals can sustain pricing.
09/26/2024
Strategy Idea...Get long Treasuries (this hedges short gold positions)
The bond market has experienced some "buy the rumor, sell the fact" price action following the Fed's historic interest rate cut. However, we suspect dip buyers will step in near the trendline. Although investors haven't been forced out of risky assets, they might feel the need to move money out of the money market or short-term debt securities to lock in consistent yield in their portfolios. We believe the uptrend in Treasuries will remain intact (lower yields).
09/20/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...So many odd coincidences…do they mean anything?
Market prices fluctuate on cycles and human emotions; thus, patterns tend to matter. Moreover, history often repeats itself or at least rhymes. We have noted similarities between the current environment and the financial crisis all year. So many odd coincidences…do they mean anything?

Newsletters

10/03/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Something big is happening in Treasuries.
If something wild happens in the coming months, we can’t say there weren’t signs. The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) portrays an unfathomably significant net short position in the 10-year note Treasury futures contract held by Large Speculators and Leveraged Funds. Not only is it the largest bearish position ever held by these categories of market participants, but it also dwarfs most previous instances. If something wild happens in the coming months, we can’t say there weren’t signs. The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) portrays an unfathomably significant net short position in the 10-year note Treasury futures contract held by Large Speculators and Leveraged Funds. Not only is it the largest bearish position ever held by these categories of market participants, but it also dwarfs most previous instances.
09/16/2024
Black and Yellow Gold
We have turned our attention to the two quintessential commodities: crude oil and gold. As we generally do, we are paying attention to what the Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission tells us. Black, and yellow, gold.
09/06/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Funds are over their skis in these two markets.
In the long run, fundamentals matter. In the short run, the reality can be skewed by aggressive market participant positioning. Before complaining about speculators and how they sometimes temporarily distort pricing, we should recognize that the pendulum swings both ways. Positioning matters; funds are over their skis in these two markets.
08/27/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Grain market rundown.
So much for the commodity Supercycle; a few years ago, grain markets such as corn, wheat, and soybeans were at, or near, all-time highs. Few fundamental analysts were willing to accept the prospects of high prices curing high prices; at the time, the world’s breadbasket, Ukraine, was under attack, and speculative money was flowing into the ag markets from investors desperate to hedge price inflation. A few years later, the despair of the boom and bust commodity pattern is being felt in growing regions. Grain Market Rundown
08/13/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Coffee Prices are high but will likely get higher next spring.
We don’t highlight the soft markets often for many reasons, including the fact that they trade on a different exchange than most products (ICE). In our view, this futures exchange is unfriendly to retail traders (who are our bread and butter). The ICE exchange charges wildly high fees for live price data, which leaves the majority of retail traders utilizing 10 to 15-minute delayed data to make trading decisions; in the 1990s, this was fine, but in the 2020s, it’s subpar. Coffee Prices are high but will likely get higher next spring.
08/01/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Mid-year Commodity Rundown Part 2
I don’t know much, but I do know to take note when markets become too quiet. Markets are living, breathing things that survive on human emotions for price discovery. As we are all reminded of daily by a crazy uncle, a parent, or a child, humans are emotional creatures. We go through lulls, but eventually, something triggers us into misbehaving. Mid-Year Commodity Rundown Part 2

Futures Chart Analysis

EGC ~ Monthly
6J ~ Monthly
Corn vs ES
ES ~ Weekly

DeCarley Press

09/17/2024
There are good arguments for being a gold bear and an oil bull
Carley joined Schwab Network this morning to discuss the potential for trend reversals in gold and oil futures. According to the COT report, both markets are experiencing extreme positioning and appear to be at critical technical junctures. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS INTERVIEW
09/11/2024
Ags and stocks are negatively correlated...Here is why.
Carley Garner joined RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady to discuss how large funds and institutions have transitioned from an inflation trade to a deflation trade. As speculators pile into the trend, the result is a strong negative correlation between stocks and corn/soybean futures. Carley Garner joined RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady to discuss how large funds and institutions have transitioned from an inflation trade to a deflation trade. As speculators pile into the trend, the result is a strong negative correlation between stocks and corn/soybean futures.
08/29/2024
High commodity prices cure high prices, and vice versa.
Carley Garner joined the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV to discuss the nature of commodity booms and busts along with the importance of hedging price risk (when you can, not when you must). Click this link to view the video.
08/29/2024
Surviving in the commodity industry with Michael Melissinos
Many people try their hand at the futures and options brokerage industry, but few can stick around for long. I talked about the hardships and victories of being a small business owner in the commodity industry with Michael Melissinos on the Talking Trends Podcast.
08/09/2024
Should we all be using this stock market bounce to de-risk?
I went on Bloomberg TV yesterday to talk about it. P.S. Abigail, Manus, and I DID NOT plan the matchy-matchy. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS INTERVIEW

Notices

07/01/2024
Independence Day Trading Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
06/13/2024
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
04/25/2024
IMPORTANT INFO REGARDING THE MIGRATION TO MY.STONEX.COM
ALL CLIENTS WILL BE MOVED FROM THE LEGACY MYACCOUNT.GAINFUTURES.COM TO THE MY.STONEX.COM PORTAL OVER THE WEEKEND

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/08/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/17/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

10/15/2024
Goldman Sachs beats on profit and revenue as stock trading and investment banking boost results
Wall Street trading and investment banking has helped the big banks this quarter, and Goldman Sachs results showed why they are a leader in those areas.
10/15/2024
United Airlines plans $1.5 billion share buyback, forecasts fourth-quarter earnings above estimates
United Airlines said it authorized a $1.5 billion share buyback, its first share repurchase since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
10/15/2024
Trump Media shares fall nearly 10% after DJT plunge triggers trading halt
Trading in Trump Media shares was briefly halted due to volatility, after the Truth Social owner's stock suddenly plunged in price.

Futures Market News

Posted on 10/15/2024
Gold futures break out from downward sloping channel as Treasury yields decline. 10/15/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/15/2024
S&P 500 futures trade lower despite strong earnings reports, 10/15/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/15/2024
Fedspeak, lower stock markets create bid for Treasury futures, 10/15/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/15/2024
WTI Crude Oil futures close nearly 4% lower after the IEA, 10/15/24
CME Group
Posted on 10/15/2024
Is the Fed's Easing Backfiring?
CME Group
Posted on 10/15/2024
Yen futures rise off their 2.5-month lows amid a pause in USD rally, 10/15/24
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

News & Research

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.