DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

02/09/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy July Sugar Strangles.

The sugar market has retraced 50% from its 2023 high and could continue lower toward a multi-decade trendline near 11.00 cents per pound. Yet, with the RSI oversold, the tides could turn at any time. Buying both a call and a put covers both bases. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

02/06/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy December Cotton Calls

The cotton market is experiencing extremely low levels of volatility. Buy call options? The cotton market is experiencing extremely low levels of volatility. Buy call options?

02/06/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy May Soybean Puts

02/03/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy Live Cattle Puts

Strategy Idea...Buy Live Cattle Puts Live cattle futures are testing the downtrend line, and the greenback is showing signs of strength.

01/15/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy wheat calls, they are cheap.

We doubt we'll see $13.00 wheat again anytime soon; in fact, I suspect I'll be retired or dead before it happens again. The 2008 and 2022 runs above $10.00 were flukish. Yet, $5.00 wheat is insanely cheap for a stable commodity. Seasonality is mildly supportive for the next two months, and speculators are sitting on historically large net short positions. This is a recipe for an upside-surprise. Wheat prices are a far cry from their 2022 high.

01/09/2026

Strategy Idea...Short Micro CL with Protection

The more oil futures knock on $55.00, the higher the likelihood the basement door opens up and trade washes out. We have noted that historically, oil futures have performed poorly below $65.00, with support in the low $40.00s. However, the last three bear markets have ended with prices breaking much lower, leaving under $20.00 as a possibility. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

02/12/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Treasuries have suffered the largest and longest bear market in history. Is it over?

In March 2020, the world was seemingly coming to an end. The world faced the risk of a perceived population-draining pandemic, and governments were closing entire economies in hopes of stopping the spread of COVID-19. In hindsight, this was probably an overreaction, but at the time, there were more questions than answers. Treasuries have suffered the largest and longest bear market in history. Is it over?

02/06/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Will volatility in metals and cryptocurrencies spill over into stock indices?

It has been my experience that when a few markets begin to break, volatility bleeds into others Will volatility in metals and cryptocurrencies spill over into stock indices?

02/05/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Did the Warsh appointment debase the debasement trade?

I assume most readers are familiar with the so-called “debasement trade,” but as a primer, we will quickly define it. The debasement trade is a popular narrative circling investment circles, media outlets, and social media boards, encouraging market participants to shift capital away from fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, sovereign bonds (mostly US Treasuries), and other assets tied to government promises. Did the Warsh appointment debase the debasement trade?

01/27/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Quick thoughts on Gold and Silver.

The last time silver behaved like this, the market was being cornered by the Hunt brothers. This time around, we are likely seeing something similar, but the culprits aren’t identifiable siblings. In addition to momentum traders who have piled onto the trend, it is likely that governments that took note when the US froze Russian assets on the heels of their invasion of Ukraine. In some cases, wealthy oligarchs with loose ties to Putin discovered that using the dollar as a reserve currency came with consequences. Quick thoughts on Gold and Silver.

01/22/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Quick Post-WASDE Grain and Livestock Chartwork

According to the latest WASDE Report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), we have too much corn and soybeans. Naturally, prices dropped sharply on the news. However, whatever happened last week in the grain markets probably feels worse than it is. Post-WASDE Report Ag Charts

01/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...What in the Wild West is going on in Silver?

There are fundamental narratives driving prices higher as buyers experience FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and even outright panic. However, from where I am sitting, and in my experience, there is no reasonable justification for parabolic price action in any market, and, in commodities, it has never been sustainable. Nevertheless, the reasons for buying gold and silver were sound; it is the magnitude and volatility of the move that are unusual. This is a commodity futures and options trading newsletter, and I wouldn’t be doing it justice without talking about the enormous metals rally of 2025, even if it means rubbing salt in my wounds. I had been vocal against the prospects of a historic metals rally, but I was wrong. As it turns out, gold and silver managed to deliver the kind of price appreciation not seen since 1979. Sometimes, low-probability events occur, and they have little mercy for anyone in their way, including those who have been around for a while.

01/15/2026

What's going on in silver?

I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

12/19/2025

Is the government helping or hurting farmers and markets?

Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP

12/16/2025

Carley wouldn't try to call a bottom in crude oil yet.

The oil market isn't known for quiet bottoms. Instead, a significant bottom and subsequent bull market is only made possible by a capitulation in price and sentiment. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady discussed this on Cow Guy Close, which aired on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO

10/09/2025

Occidental (OXY) Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Continues to Fall

We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.

10/09/2025

Carley Garner joined Trading360 on Schwab to discuss the Occidental Petroleum deal with Berkshire Hathway

Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps

02/13/2026

Here’s the inflation breakdown for January 2026 — in one chart

The consumer price index eased in January but inflation was still elevated for many consumer necessities, economists said.

02/13/2026

Venezuela oil sales top $1 billion, funds won’t go to Qatar account anymore, Energy secretary says

Democrats in Congress have questioned the transparency and legality of depositing Venezuela oil revenue in Qatar.

02/13/2026

AI disruption could spark a ‘shock to the system’ in credit markets, UBS analyst says

UBS analyst Matthew Mish told CNBC that the artificial intelligence transformation is happening faster than he and his colleagues had previously anticipated.

02/12/2026

IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING OUR AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK

Carley has been offered an opportunity she couldn't refuse. She will be hosting the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV from their studio in Nashville on Friday, February 20th, and Monday, February 23rd. Scott needs a break! Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones for a few days in late February.

02/12/2026

Presidents' Day Holiday Trading Schedule 2026

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16th, in observance of Presidents' Day. For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16th, in observance of Presidents' Day.