DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

07/20/2026

Strategy Idea...Getting Bearish in Oil

Violent flare-ups in Iran have triggered a $20.00 oil short squeeze in a relatively short time. This was a needed correction. As we stated in previous newsletters, the USO ETF traders held a large net short position in addition to short call options; as we know, commodities don't make it easy on anyone... especially the overleveraged. Further, we often see short squeezes into contract expiration get reversed. The August WTI oil futures contract expires tomorrow, and our chart suggests that $86.00 (in the August contract) is highly pivotal. Thus, we like being bears up here with bear put spreads paid for by a short call (naked). See the details below. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

07/17/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish Seasonal Wheat Play.

07/13/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish November Bean Put Spreads w/Kicker

07/08/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish July corn play to hedge or spec

07/02/2026

Strategy Idea...Stock Index Hedge or Bearish Spec Play

With midterms, a war, and a stronger dollar (except for today), we have to respect the chart. The daily chart suggests momentum is rolling over; we come to this conclusion because the market has failed to make higher highs, attracts selling at the trendline, and the RSI is pointing lower despite the S&P 500 index being near an all-time high. July is usually a good month for stocks, but the chart doesn't seem to agree.

07/02/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish Coffee Spread

Summer weather spikes in coffee are generally selling opportunities. The lows are often made later in July or August. Of course, there is a chance the weather continues to concern the market and prices move higher, but history suggests that would be unlikely. Further, today's high matched a downtrend line, and the RSI suggests this move is overbought. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

07/17/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...All Markets Should Pay Attention to Kevin Warsh, but Particularly Stocks, Copper, and Ags.

Perhaps the single most important statement made all year was delivered by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Earlier this week, during a Congressional testimony, he said plainly and simply, “Inflation is a choice.” The new Fed Chair is the first to say out loud that the inflation problems we are experiencing today are the direct result of too much liquidity in the system. Those of us who have been around for a while remember the onset of Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to combat the Global Financial Crisis. These programs involve the government buying its own Treasury debt and were intended to be temporary. QE is designed to add liquidity to the system and keep asset prices afloat, in hopes that the wealth effect would encourage economic activity. Less liquidity means smaller rallies.

07/13/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...War headlines are back, but oil volatility isn’t what it was

https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=1685883c-7eec-11f1-856c-310063760f3d&pt=campaign&t=1783969413&s=b3d5b23bbd073d652ecff0b34541edb42d2f14f6cf90defcf23df8f8ba81e877 War headlines are back, but oil volatility isn’t what it was

06/29/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Thinking Outside of the Box

One of the greatest developments in the futures markets during my two-decade-plus career is the advent of micro-sized futures contracts. Prior to micro futures, commodity speculators were forced into larger, more aggressive positions. Smaller contracts allow retail traders of any size or risk tolerance to dip their toes into the futures markets at a more comfortable pace. Thinking Outside of the Box: Protect Micro Futures with Full-Sized Options

06/26/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.

We dedicated an entire newsletter to the many similarities between what we see on our quote boards and in our lives today that resemble the years leading up to the global financial crisis; click here to review it. Considering the recent collapse in crude oil prices, we are compelled to compare today’s oil market to the 2008 market. History should not be ignored because it tends to be repeated. Even though the factors driving market prices differ slightly, the patterns and, eventually, the outcome are likely to be the same. Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.

06/16/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

With politicians giving everyone so much to talk about, the strength of the US dollar has gone largely unnoticed. There was a time when King Dollar lived up to its name; how the global currency market priced the dollar dictated how most other assets were valued. Things have changed a bit, mostly because government programs and Central Bank policies have distorted the currency markets The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

06/10/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Additional thoughts on the indices

The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; this is a trendline that posed significant resistance for several months before finally failing in early May. Now that the S&P is trading above it, it will act as support. Unfortunately, if the market can’t hold 7250, there aren’t any reliable support levels until we get back to the bottom of the range, currently at 6250. 6800 lured modest buying in 2025, so it might slow down the selling, but it likely…

07/08/2026

Coffee market volatility reminds us that markets seek and destroy leverage and weak hands

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP

06/22/2026

Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans in San Francisco for the MoneyShow in August!

This multi-day event takes place at the Fairmont San Francisco, perched atop Nob Hill. Not only will there be opportunities for great sightseeing, but some of the industry's most popular names will be there, including Victoria Greene, Larry McDonald, Jim Bianco, Eric Balchunas, and more.

06/18/2026

Join us in Las Vegas for the MoneyShow!

It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :) It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :)

06/18/2026

Carley joined Ausbiz to talk about a dollar brekout

I joined @ausbiztv last night (morning in the AU) to talk about a potential breakout in the dollar. A stronger greenback changes the entire landscape, shifting from a tailwind for assets such as gold and stocks to a headwind. I also wrote about this in our client newsletter (and Substack) earlier this week. The currency markets might matter again.

06/10/2026

Is the screwworm fiasco already priced into cattle futures?

Stock and I discussed this on today's Cow Guy Close. Hint...I think it probably is. https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/erASrleY

07/21/2026

SpaceX sets earnings date, triggering first lock-up expiration for millions of shares

SpaceX's stock gained on Tuesday and looked to snap a seven-day losing streak after announcing Aug. 4 as its maiden earnings report

07/21/2026

Greer hints new Trump tariffs coming on dozens of countries: 'Expect action soon'

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's comments the Trump administration could impose new tariffs just as other duties are set to expire.

07/21/2026

IRS chief Frank Bisignano dismisses JPMorgan spying allegations

Bisignano denied allegations The Wall Street Journal reported that he surveilled his colleagues while working at JPMorgan more than a decade ago.

07/02/2026

250th Birthday Holiday Schedule

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

06/23/2026

DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!

The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!