DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

09/02/2025

Strategy Idea...Get back into bearish gold spreads.

The gold market appears to be getting a boost from thin holiday trade and a short squeeze. However, similar rallies have reversed sharply, and we suspect this one will too. The US dollar has likely bottomed, and the December contract has finally retested the 2025 high posted in April. Lastly, we continue to be in an environment of relatively high interest rates, which "should" pull safe-haven dollars from gold and put them into Treasuries. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

08/29/2025

Strategy Idea...Hedge portfolios or play the downside in the S&P

On nearly all metrics, the equity markets are grossly overvalued. Even more interesting is the high concentration of gains; most of the performance is coming from a handful of stocks. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

08/19/2025

Strategy Idea...Cheap flyers in crude oil make sense.

08/18/2025

Strategy Idea...Sugar has been sour, but we want to give it another chance.

Bottoms are a process, not an event. We all know this, yet it can be frustrating for speculators. Nevertheless, the lifeless nature of sugar has enabled the market to produce cheap call options with a substantial amount of time. We like playing the upside with March 2026 sugar calls. Even if the bear lives on, we could easily see a run back to the 200-day moving average near 18 cents. This is a cheap and easy way to play; you get 184 days in the market for less than $800! The sugar market has been a dog, but there are signs of life on the chart.

08/13/2025

Strategy Idea...Getting long November natural gas.

Natural gas supplies have grown due to mild weather, but winter is around the corner.

08/11/2025

Strategy Idea...Getting back into bearish S&P option spreads.

Seasonality and the prospects of a higher dollar should keep the stock rally in check.

09/02/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Silver is leading gold higher, but what happens next?

Today’s metals rally feels suspect to us. For starters, it was probably made possible by silver futures price-squeezing during an abbreviated and thinly traded holiday session. This might be the last hurrah for gold bulls.

08/29/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Risk Assets are on a Roll; Risk Assets are on a Roll, but Will it Last?

I pride myself on being an optimistic person and loathe the idea of being permanently bearish on a market that has generally risen since its inception. Yet, I have a hard time looking at a monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a positive outlook, at least in the short run. I pride myself on being an optimistic person and loathe the idea of being permanently bearish on a market that has generally risen since its inception. Yet, I have a hard time looking at a monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a positive outlook, at least in the short run. Furthermore, although not a scientific poll, anyone who has spent time on social media knows that there aren’t many stock market bears. In fact, I’ve encountered multiple lengthy and detailed threads insulting the intelligence of anyone who is not using leverage to buy stocks, either directly (through futures contracts or borrowing shares) or indirectly (by choosing not to pay off debt and instead investing that money in the stock market).

08/27/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Eye Spy a few Commodity Sleepers

Commodities are a feast or famine business, but it isn’t that often you see such simultaneous extremes. For instance, while livestock futures are rallying in a parabolic fashion, a few commodities have drifted lower to what would have been unfathomably low prices just a few years ago. Eye Spy a few Commodity Sleepers

08/26/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...In need of a coffee fix?

Another commodity market that is garnering attention is coffee. If it weren’t for the existence of natural gas futures, coffee would be the commodity widow maker. We have seen historically elevated volatility in 2024 and 2025 as the market works out supply issues due to drought and exceptionally hot temperatures in Brazil, floods in Vietnam, and the aftermath of low coffee prices before 2020. Low prices from 2017 to 2020 forced many growers to shutter, which has exacerbated the weather-related supply disruptions. In need of a coffee fix?

08/25/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...Ags are repeating 2014, but with vengeance.

We are witnessing the corn market give a masterclass on the phenomenon of high commodity prices curing high commodity prices. The ag markets are repeating 2014, but with vengeance.

08/14/2025

The DeCarley Perspective...If you must buy gold, consider income generation strategies.

We’ve been vocal about our opinion that the gold market is repeating the 2011 blow-off top pattern. If you must buy gold, consider income generation strategies.

08/08/2025

Gold tariffs trigger overnight rally

Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show. Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show.

06/25/2025

Carley Garner on CyberTrading University

Carley had the opportunity to discuss her commodity market background and the futures and options brokerage business with @cybertradingu. Topics covered include stock indices, crude oil, precious metals, and other financial assets.

06/20/2025

Silver is not for the feint of heart...or even most traders.

I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today. I guess you could say Carley is a silver market pessimist. In her experience and observation, it is an uncivilized market that deals its fair share of misery. Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley discussed this with a side of real estate on the Cow Guy Close today.

05/28/2025

If crude oil bottoms, it will be because of an unforeseen catalyst.

Carley Garner joined Alex Coffey of the Schwab Network to share her views on the oil market, which she doesn't find bullish. Without an OPEC put in place, and demand waning, oil prices could fall under $50.00 per barrel. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP.

05/23/2025

WATCH COW GUY CLOSE WITH SCOTT SHELLADY ON RFD-TV WEEKDAYS AT 1:30 TO 2:30 EST

If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.! If you don't already, tune in to Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV weekdays from 1:30 to 2:30 Eastern for financial and ag market commentary and unique takes on the latest news stories. You will see Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading every Wednesday at 2 p.m.!

09/04/2025

Broadcom reports 63% jump in AI revenue as results beat estimates

Broadcom has been one of the biggest winners in the artificial intelligence boom and investor expectations are growing.

09/04/2025

Trump asks Supreme Court to let him fire FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter

President Donald Trump in March removed two Democratic commissioners from their posts at the Federal Trade Commission.

09/04/2025

Lululemon shares plunge as earnings guidance falls well short of estimates

Lululemon reported second-quarter earnings Thursday, beating quarterly earnings and revenue estimates but issuing a weak 2025 outlook.

08/29/2025

Labor Day Holiday Schedule

We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.

08/27/2025

Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?

We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.