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Recommendations

08/20/2026
Strategy Idea...Sell mini soybeans with catastrophic insurance.
According to MRCI, going short January soybeans this week and holding through mid-October (harvest lows) has been profitable in 12 of the last 15 years. With the chart looking extended, RSI a bit sluggish, and the dollar sitting on its 200-day moving average (boosting commodities in recent sessions), it seems all the bullish news might be priced in for the grain market. We like the idea of going short mini futures contracts and purchasing December (standard-sized) soybean $15.00 calls to act as catastrophic insurance, and as a backstop for those looking to scale into extra minis (one standard call fully protects 5 mini futures above the strike price). Jan beans are a "seasonal sell"
08/14/2026
Strategy Idea...Nibble on bullish cattle spreads.
Last year, the cattle market managed to rally from about August 15th, putting in a last-hurrah rally. This year might be setting up for something similar, but if not, the chart suggests we are likely to at least see a temporary rally. 217.00 has been a strong pivot price for the October cattle futures (including supporting the August 15th 2025 rally). It is as simple as the market behaves bullishly above it and bearishly below it. Cattle futures are reacting negatively to plant closures, but in the past these events have created short-term bottoms.
08/13/2026
Strategy Idea...Cheap bearish gold plays
Being on the wrong side of the metals futures market (or short options) this year has been a wild ride. Accordingly, we hesitate to get over our skis there. That said, there are ways to play with very low and limited risk if you are willing to spend a few hundred on what most would consider a long shot, but might not be as long as it appears. We have seen gold put together both historical rallies and declines; there is a good chance that pattern repeats. If so, the low $3,000s could be in play! Gold is testing significant resistance; we think it probably holds.
08/06/2026
Strategy Idea...Cheap Euro Currency Play
If the US makes a habit of selling euros to buy yen, the euro is too high.
08/06/2026
Strategy Idea...Aggressive Copper Bearish Spread
Copper prices have firmed up in unison with the AI trade, but we might be reaching an inflection point. The market is up against resistance on a daily chart, and on the monthly chart we are contending with trendline resistance that has never failed. Lastly, according to the COT report, speculators are holding near record net long positions. Unless copper turns into the next inexplicable parabolic metal (gold and silver took their turn earlier in the year), this should be a good place for the bears to dig in. Copper futures are near an all-time high; with specs long, can it hold?
08/03/2026
Strategy Idea...Cheap put spreads in live cattle.
Cattle futures have bounced sharply, but can it hold? The bull market in cattle that has taken place since 2020 is one for the history books in regard to resiliency. I don't recall ever seeing a commodity hold gains this substantial for this stretch of time. I am not convinced the livestock market will be the one commodity in history that avoided a bust after a boom. Just like the screw worm finally making it over the border was a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact situation, I think the border opening was a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact phenomenon. Not that that's over; the market will have to stand on its own two feet. Don't forget, live cattle futures were under 200 when we first learned about the screwworm. We could easily see prices come back to pre-screwworm levels. This feels a lot like a dead cat bounce.

Newsletters

08/20/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...First the Yen, then the Treasuries
It must be intervention season.
08/11/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Scanning for overcrowded futures trades
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=769ca182-95a9-11f1-906d-2db62f7374a7&pt=campaign&t=1786470130&s=adbc49482c355f63ea9232c18c6ce2049e7cb277a83d49b0e35c806fcb6a9688 Crowded trades never stay that way forever.
08/04/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Yentervention: What is it and why does it matter? PART 2
https://eomail6.com/web-version?p=a5130394-9031-11f1-9b3b-230a8a8beeca&pt=campaign&t=1785868433&s=c098f14b38067e2af7ac8276edd93ab9ff7285dce9a1a16eb1e3943374739653 In part 1 of our “Yen-tervention” analysis, we noted the tendency for the Yen and the 10-year note to experience bull and bear markets in unison and concluded that if the Yen intervention is successful, it could breed a new bull market in Treasuries.
08/04/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Yentervention: What is it and why does it matter? (PART 1)
The US Treasury and the Bank of Japan teamed up to support the spiraling decline in the Yen. If you are wondering why in the world the United States would try to police the currency market in the same way they have failed to police global culture, look no further than the Treasury market. Looking at a daily chart of the Yen and the 10-year note side-by-side, it is clear that Treasuries sell off prior to large spikes in the yen. This isn’t a coincidence; instead, it is the systematic liquidation of US Treasuries held by Japan, the largest sovereign holder of US debt, to raise cash to purchase Yen in hopes of stabilizing the currency. Low Japanese interest rates and a weak currency have impacted US markets.
07/23/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the stock market out of gas?
There are headlines circulating about large short seller positions in the equity market. We can see why they would want to be short, and we agree (we recently suggested a bearish option play). However, it should be noted that when short sellers are active, it often acts as fuel to the fire. Is the stock market out of gas?
07/17/2026
The DeCarley Perspective...All Markets Should Pay Attention to Kevin Warsh, but Particularly Stocks, Copper, and Ags.
Perhaps the single most important statement made all year was delivered by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Earlier this week, during a Congressional testimony, he said plainly and simply, “Inflation is a choice.” The new Fed Chair is the first to say out loud that the inflation problems we are experiencing today are the direct result of too much liquidity in the system. Those of us who have been around for a while remember the onset of Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to combat the Global Financial Crisis. These programs involve the government buying its own Treasury debt and were intended to be temporary. QE is designed to add liquidity to the system and keep asset prices afloat, in hopes that the wealth effect would encourage economic activity. Less liquidity means smaller rallies.

Futures Chart Analysis

Copper ~ Monthly
US Dollar Index ~ Daily
Gold ~ Daily
Dollar COT Chart

Cow Guy Close

See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

08/05/2026
Scott and Carley talk about how saving the Yen, is saving Treasuries
The reality is, bull/bear markets in the Yen and Treasuries tend to go hand in hand. Supporting the Yen is supporting US Treasuries (encouraging lower interest rates).
07/30/2026
Option butterflies are underrated, especially in the most volatile crude oil market of our lives
With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close. With crude oil futures margins at $10k and massive switchback volatility on headlines, put-option butterfly spreads probably make sense. Scott and I talked about it on Cow Guy Close.
07/23/2026
War and political risk priced back into crude oil, now what?
While everyone is focused on supply issues in oil, we are looking at demand destruction and the US dollar rally. What a wild ride 2026 has been for oil traders!
07/08/2026
Coffee market volatility reminds us that markets seek and destroy leverage and weak hands
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
06/22/2026
Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans in San Francisco for the MoneyShow in August!
This multi-day event takes place at the Fairmont San Francisco, perched atop Nob Hill. Not only will there be opportunities for great sightseeing, but some of the industry's most popular names will be there, including Victoria Greene, Larry McDonald, Jim Bianco, Eric Balchunas, and more.

Live Economic News/Data

08/20/2026
AI data center outrage is showing up everywhere from ads to elections
With less than three months until the midterm elections, opposition to AI data centers is becoming a bipartisan rallying cry in a growing number of states.
08/21/2026
Chinese humanoid robots' biggest obstacle: humans are still (mostly) better
Humanoid robots still struggle to perform as efficiently as humans in most labor scenarios.
08/21/2026
Japan's historic yen intervention has ‘turbo-charged’ the carry trade
Japan's historic effort to prop up the yen may have had an unintended consequence: giving investors a better opportunity to put the carry trade back on.

Notices

07/28/2026
Trading Commodity Options with Creativity
At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the trenches with real-world examples that include the good, the bad, and the ugly...whereas the majority of trading books ignore or skate over the ugly side. Of all the things I have done in my career, this is probably what I am most proud of. The book is available on Amazon in multiple formats, including an audiobook. At the MoneyShow last week, an attendee in one of my classes mentioned that he loved my option trading book and stated: "There isn't anything else like it." He is right; most books give you the same recycled information you can get from an internet or AI search, but Trading Commodity Options with Creativity gives you perspective from the…
07/02/2026
250th Birthday Holiday Schedule
For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA
06/23/2026
DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!
The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 08/20/2026
Gold futures rebounded after testing 200-day moving average. 8/20/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/20/2026
Equity indices drop as Micro Bitcoin futures volume tops 100,000. 8/20/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/20/2026
Natural Gas futures rebound from lows following EIA build. 8/20/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/20/2026
The Oil Risk Markets May Be Underpricing
CME Group
Posted on 08/20/2026
Live Cattle futures traded lower as production slows. 8/19/26
CME Group
Posted on 08/19/2026
10-Year Note futures rise on Treasury buyback plan. 8/19/26
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

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*Substantial risk of loss in trading.

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