DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

04/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Aggressive Crude Oil Play

We could be wrong, but high crude oil prices seem to finally be hitting consumers where it hurts. We have been flying for work-related events in recent months, and despite widespread stats suggesting that the average flight price is only 15% to 20% higher than pre-war levels, we are witnessing 50% to 100% increases AND empty flights. As we have written in previous DeCarley Perspectives, when oil moves this far this fast, things break. High Prices, Cure High Prices

04/28/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish Wheat Nibble

04/24/2026

Strategy Idea...Bean oil puts look attractive.

04/22/2026

Strategy Idea...Sweet Sugar Strangles

We had some luck with our previous long option strangle in sugar, and like the idea of applying a similar approach to the current market setup. Sugar generally moves lower until the first or second week of May, leaving some room for further decline. Yet there are two downtrend lines for traders to contend with: the first is near 13.00, and the next comes in at 12.25ish. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

04/17/2026

Strategy Idea...Low/Limited Risk Bearish S&P Position

With everyone either overhedged, too short, or underweight, the S&P 500 two weeks ago, the market has produced one of the largest and fastest rallies in history as bearishness unwinds. However, the new all-time highs leave us at the top of an expanding trading range. Perhaps we melt through, but perhaps we have seen what we are going to see on the upside for now, and this is a place for the bears to take a shot at the downside. We have found a way to express a bearish opinion in a market that has ripped the faces off bears with minimal risk. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

04/17/2026

Strategy Idea...Calls on Pigs

The hog market moved higher earlier this year on the coattails of the cattle market, but we have since seen hogs give up gains, while cattle have maintained most of the rally. Seasonality is mixed in hogs; the bottom is usually next month, but the chart looks promising, and the call options are cheap enough to justify a nibble. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

04/23/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?

Early in the Iranian “excursion” war, most commodities followed oil higher. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, agricultural commodity markets such as corn, soybeans, and wheat experienced sharp rallies amid a hectic war market. While wheat had its own bullish narrative, Ukraine is sometimes referred to as the world’s breadbasket due to its robust production of the commodity; the others rallied primarily on cash inflows into commodity ETFs and funds. At the time, investors clamored for ways to hedge inflation risk. The money rotating into commodities allowed corn prices to reach levels above $8.00 per bushel, soybeans to nearly $18.00 per bushel, and soybean oil to just over $0.90 per pound. The DeCarley Perspective...Soybean Oil has enjoyed a war premium; what’s next for corn and beans?

04/15/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Risk assets are rolling; blow-off top in copper and last hurrah for precious metals?

The equity market has made a miraculous recovery from recent lows. In fact, the market has traveled what is historically a year or more worth of gains in just 10 sessions, putting it in the 99.7th percentile of rallies. Not surprisingly, the rebound in risk assets has allowed correlated assets, such as metals (both precious and industrial), to track higher. We’ve been tabbing the correlation board for clues and have discovered that copper, gold, and silver have all been trading with a moderate positive correlation to the dollar and a healthy positive correlation to the S&P 500. We believe this opens the door to a continuation of the metals rally in the short run, but it will likely set up much larger setbacks. Risk assets are rolling; blow-off top in copper and last hurrah for precious metals?

04/07/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.

The two biggest precursors to a recession are an inverted yield curve and a sharp spike in oil prices. We are now contending with both. The 10-year yield was lower than the 2-year yield (inverted) from mid-2022 through mid-2024. This was the longest and deepest inversion on record. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that market participants favor long-term bonds as a hedge against potential future economic turmoil. Despite the recent 26-month inversion, this is a relatively rare occurrence. Recession watch and obscene crude oil rollover risk.

04/01/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”

When silver futures were ascending over $100 per ounce, we described the market as being “Gamestopped.” At the time, there was criticism of this opinion, suggesting it was not possible to manipulate a massive global commodity market such as silver in the same manner as an off-the-grid stock could be. However, we stand by our assessment. We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”

03/23/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...What if coffee is the new cocoa?

I recently hosted a class on coffee hedging for roasters and producers at the National Coffee Association convention in Tampa, Florida. I thought it made sense to share some of the content in our newsletter and update it for those new followers we gained at the event. What if coffee is the new cocoa?

03/18/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.

Although the commodity world has turned its attention to the energy sector, we wanted to provide an updated chart on the previous flash-in-the-pan commodity: gold. While I was scratching my head while gold rallied wildly in January, others are trying to figure out how gold is moving lower on news of a fresh war in the Middle East. This is textbook buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact price action. However, not everyone knew US and Israeli bombs would be dropping in Iran, but price action suggests someone probably did. Or at least they had a reason to believe it was a real possibility. For instance, China hoarded both gold and oil going into the conflict. As they say, markets, and therefore charts, are all-knowing. Even if the news isn’t public yet, there are those behind the scenes preparing for it. By the time bombs dropped, gold had already priced in a war.

04/22/2026

Oligopolies in fertilizer causing farmers to be price takers on both ends

Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers. Today, on Cow Guy Close, we talked about commodity oligopolies and how commodity producers are being held hostage, leaving them as price takers.

03/12/2026

Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.

This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.

03/12/2026

The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.

Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

02/26/2026

Scott and Carley discuss crude oil and the World Uncertainty Index

We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out. We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out.

01/15/2026

What's going on in silver?

I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

04/28/2026

United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC May 1, energy chief says still committed to oil price stability

The UAE said it decided leaving OPEC was in its national interest after reviewing its production policy and capacity.

04/28/2026

Jamie Dimon warns of 'some kind of bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build

Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, the world's largest bank by market cap, said that today's growing mix of risks could combine in unpredictable ways.

04/28/2026

ABC faces renewed Trump backlash as Kimmel says comments 'not, by any stretch' call for violence

While it's not the first time Kimmel has faced backlash over a show monologue, the renewed challenges now fall under freshly installed Disney CEO Josh D'Amaro.

04/28/2026

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For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month. DeCarley Trading brokerage clients receive our newsletters for free as long as their account is open and active. For those who aren't interested in opening a brokerage account with DeCarley Trading but would like access to the DeCarley Perspective commodity market analysis and trading ideas, we offer them on a subscription basis via Substack starting at $25.00 per month.