Recommendations

10/31/2024
Strategy Idea...Bullish Risk Reversals in ZB
It is par for the course to see interest rate securities pull back and correct following a Federal Reserve rate cut, but the size and scope of this selloff are stunning. Treasuries weakness is stunning, but we continue to believe it is temporary.
10/30/2024
Strategy Idea...Hog Risk Reversals
Lean hog futures have been rallying in a parabolic manner. As a result, call options have gotten somewhat expensive and puts are relatively cheap. We like the idea of using risk reversals as a farm hedge for those of you who need to fend off downside risk or a speculative position for those looking for lower prices. Hog margin is low and the market is mostly shielded from politics, so this might offer some much needed diversification from other holdings (long bonds, short gold). The hog rally feels piggish.
10/23/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy June Yen Calls.
A few months ago, all the media was talking about was the Yen carry trade—more specifically, the sudden unwinding of that trade that seemingly triggered volatility in Treasuries, stocks, and even gold. However, the media and the markets seem to have forgotten about the Yen. In the meantime, US interest rates have moved higher, and the Yen carry trade appears to be back in vogue. We have seen this before...in 2007/2008. The Japanese Yen Story Probably isn't Over.
10/21/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy November Soybean Puts as a Flyer.
We generally don't suggest this type of play, but given the circumstances, we think it makes sense to allocate a small bet on the downside in soybeans this week. Today's bounce is probably a dead cat rather than a new trend and the daily chart suggests we could test a downtrend line that comes in much lower (below $9.40). November Soybeans Often Sell-Off into Expiration.
10/17/2024
Strategy Idea...Buy long-dated, cheap, corn calls.
We are hearing many farmers still have some of last year's crop in the bin on top of the current year's harvest piling up. Yet, this isn't necessarily shocking news to the market. In fact, we have probably been pricing this in for months...everyone knows harvest is in the fall. Every. Single. Year. Corn is probably worth a nibble.
10/08/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Quick thoughts on oil and implied volatility.
Thus far, we haven’t seen any meaningful supply disruptions due to recent events in the Middle East. The overreaction is likely more of a short covering event than a fundamental game-changer. The oil market and market participants adopted a sell-the-rally mentality in 2024; as prices fell into the mid-$60.00s, speculators held one of the most minor net long positions in decades. Quick thoughts on oil and implied volatility.

Newsletters

11/01/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Concerning action in crude oil going into the weekend.
Something is brewing in crude oil. The last time I saw crude oil call options disconnect from the underlying futures like this was in the days before Russia Invading Ukraine. Crude oil is up slightly over a dollar overnight, but out-of-the-money call options have roughly doubled in value across the chain. Is something brewing in crude oil?
10/24/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Are the copper and yen markets telling us something?
I’ve been a futures and options broker for over two decades; I’ve seen, experienced, and felt a lot. What I am seeing on my quote board, hearing from the talking heads, and reading on social media and chat boards this week is concerning. Complacency is at an all-time high, while event risk is arguably similarly elevated. We should all be on high alert going forward. Are the copper and yen markets telling us something?
10/22/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the "Trump Trade" Old News or Fake News?
There is no shortage of opinions or polls regarding the upcoming US election, but in the end, none of us know what will unfold two weeks from now. Further, will anything unfold at all, or will we be in a “hanging chad” situation? Is the "Trump Trade" Old News or Fake News?
10/21/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Last hurrah in the gold rally?
Last Hurrah in the Gold Rally?
10/03/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Something big is happening in Treasuries.
If something wild happens in the coming months, we can’t say there weren’t signs. The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) portrays an unfathomably significant net short position in the 10-year note Treasury futures contract held by Large Speculators and Leveraged Funds. Not only is it the largest bearish position ever held by these categories of market participants, but it also dwarfs most previous instances. If something wild happens in the coming months, we can’t say there weren’t signs. The Commitments of Traders Report (COT) released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) portrays an unfathomably significant net short position in the 10-year note Treasury futures contract held by Large Speculators and Leveraged Funds. Not only is it the largest bearish position ever held by these categories of market participants, but it also dwarfs most previous instances.
09/16/2024
Black and Yellow Gold
We have turned our attention to the two quintessential commodities: crude oil and gold. As we generally do, we are paying attention to what the Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission tells us. Black, and yellow, gold.

Futures Chart Analysis

Crude Oil ~ Weekly
ES ~ Monthly
EGC ~ Monthly
6J ~ Monthly

DeCarley Press

11/06/2024
Are the Trump tariffs already priced into the grain markets? Scott and I reminisce about the last Chinese trade war.
Are the Trump tariffs already priced into the grain markets? Scott and I reminisce about the last Chinese trade war. Click here to watch this segment of the Cow Guy Close discussing soybean prices and Trump tariffs.
10/23/2024
Jim Rogers is nervous, for good reason. We spoke about it on Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady
Jim Rogers, author of Hot Commodities, points out that we are due for a financial catastrophe. He suggests that perhaps buying silver and agriculture is a better bet than some other markets (although he notes cash is king). I spoke about it with Scott Shellady on Cow Guy Close. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO
10/17/2024
Something big is happening in Treasuries and Gold, Carley talked about it on Ausbiz
Traders and even funds hold the most significant net short position ever seen in Treasury futures. This is an aggressive position to "fight the Fed"; do they know something we don't, or will it be unwound to push rates lower and Treasuries higher? CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
09/17/2024
There are good arguments for being a gold bear and an oil bull
Carley joined Schwab Network this morning to discuss the potential for trend reversals in gold and oil futures. According to the COT report, both markets are experiencing extreme positioning and appear to be at critical technical junctures. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS INTERVIEW
09/11/2024
Ags and stocks are negatively correlated...Here is why.
Carley Garner joined RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady to discuss how large funds and institutions have transitioned from an inflation trade to a deflation trade. As speculators pile into the trend, the result is a strong negative correlation between stocks and corn/soybean futures. Carley Garner joined RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady to discuss how large funds and institutions have transitioned from an inflation trade to a deflation trade. As speculators pile into the trend, the result is a strong negative correlation between stocks and corn/soybean futures.

Notices

10/31/2024
ELECTION RISK REDUCTION AND DAY TRADING MARGIN CHANGES 
We encourage clients to strongly consider lightening their risk and margin load for next week's election. While we can't predict or control the outcome, or more importantly, how the market reacts to the outcome, we can control which positions are open going into Tuesday. For those of you trading large quantities in high concentration, it is probably a good idea to have hedges (maybe long options or micro futures). If you are unsure of whether your portfolio is too aggressive, please reach out to us for help. We encourage clients to strongly consider lightening their risk and margin load for next week's election. While we can't predict or control the outcome, or more importantly, how the market reacts to the outcome, we can control which positions are open going into Tuesday. For those of you trading large quantities in high concentration, it is probably a good idea to have hedges (maybe long options or micro futures). If you are unsure of whether your portfolio is too aggressive,…
07/01/2024
Independence Day Trading Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.
06/13/2024
Juneteenth Holiday Schedule 2024
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur. For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th. Accordingly, we will be out of the office on this day but will be available by email and text message (numbers below) should an emergency occur.

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/08/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/17/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

11/06/2024
Trump's victory spells doom for his criminal cases — but he's not off the hook for $570 million in civil fines
President-elect Donald Trump's election victory means he will likely be able to delay, or end, all the criminal proceedings that have been lodged against him.
11/06/2024
Qualcomm pops on chipmaker's earnings and revenue beat
Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat Wall Street expectations for earnings and revenue, and guided to a strong December quarter.
11/06/2024
Trump's proposed tariffs could raise prices for consumers and slow spending
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed stiff tariffs on imported goods, which could lead to higher prices and softer spending.

Futures Market News

Posted on 11/06/2024
10-Year T-Note yield spikes following U.S. election, closes near 4.44%. 11/6/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/06/2024
Choppy Grains futures firm up. 11/6/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/06/2024
Livestock futures close in positive territory. 11/6/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/06/2024
WTI Crude Oil futures volatile amid possible changes in domestic supply, geopolitics, long-term dema
CME Group
Posted on 11/06/2024
Gold futures sink below $2,700 USD, Treasury yields sharply rise. 11/6/24
CME Group
Posted on 11/06/2024
Russell 2000 futures print their steepest 1-day rally in 2 years as USD and yields soar. 11/6/24
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

News & Research

Document/ID Submission

Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.