DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

07/02/2026

Strategy Idea...Stock Index Hedge or Bearish Spec Play

With midterms, a war, and a stronger dollar (except for today), we have to respect the chart. The daily chart suggests momentum is rolling over; we come to this conclusion because the market has failed to make higher highs, attracts selling at the trendline, and the RSI is pointing lower despite the S&P 500 index being near an all-time high. July is usually a good month for stocks, but the chart doesn't seem to agree.

07/02/2026

Strategy Idea...Bearish Coffee Spread

Summer weather spikes in coffee are generally selling opportunities. The lows are often made later in July or August. Of course, there is a chance the weather continues to concern the market and prices move higher, but history suggests that would be unlikely. Further, today's high matched a downtrend line, and the RSI suggests this move is overbought. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

06/25/2026

Strategy Idea...Cheap Bullish Wheat Play

In light of what has been a commodity bear market in recent weeks, we have a feeling wheat might temporarily break its 200-day moving average and head toward the trendline about 20 cents lower *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

06/18/2026

Strategy Idea...Yen intervention call options

The market doesn't seem to think the BOJ will repeat past behavior, which was only a temporary fix. But it doesn't cost much to be there if it does. Call options are surprisingly cheap. We can buy August near-the-money calls for less than the price of a nice room on the Las Vegas Strip. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

06/12/2026

Strategy Idea...Seasonal hog buy with insurance.

Sometimes, ag contracts see trend reversals when one contract goes off the board as traders roll from one to the other. The hog roll is selling June futures and buying August. With August nearing its seasonal low in a few weeks and with the November lows acting as support, it feels like an opportunity to go long August hog futures with insurance. After all, beef prices remain stubbornly high; we doubt consumers will refuse to substitute their proteins. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

06/12/2026

Strategy Idea...Nibbling on new crop beans.

Fund liquidation ahead of bearish seasonality brought beans to support levels.

06/29/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Thinking Outside of the Box

One of the greatest developments in the futures markets during my two-decade-plus career is the advent of micro-sized futures contracts. Prior to micro futures, commodity speculators were forced into larger, more aggressive positions. Smaller contracts allow retail traders of any size or risk tolerance to dip their toes into the futures markets at a more comfortable pace. Thinking Outside of the Box: Protect Micro Futures with Full-Sized Options

06/26/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.

We dedicated an entire newsletter to the many similarities between what we see on our quote boards and in our lives today that resemble the years leading up to the global financial crisis; click here to review it. Considering the recent collapse in crude oil prices, we are compelled to compare today’s oil market to the 2008 market. History should not be ignored because it tends to be repeated. Even though the factors driving market prices differ slightly, the patterns and, eventually, the outcome are likely to be the same. Don’t be Fooled by Bear Market Bounces in Metals and Oil.

06/16/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

With politicians giving everyone so much to talk about, the strength of the US dollar has gone largely unnoticed. There was a time when King Dollar lived up to its name; how the global currency market priced the dollar dictated how most other assets were valued. Things have changed a bit, mostly because government programs and Central Bank policies have distorted the currency markets The dollar is quietly making a run; will it break things?

06/10/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Additional thoughts on the indices

The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; The daily S&P chart is easier on the eyes, but it remains concerning. The snapback rally from March lows has created an expanding trading channel with resistance at 7650, and channel support a whopping 1400 points lower at 6250. The bulls will need to see prices continue to hold 7250; this is a trendline that posed significant resistance for several months before finally failing in early May. Now that the S&P is trading above it, it will act as support. Unfortunately, if the market can’t hold 7250, there aren’t any reliable support levels until we get back to the bottom of the range, currently at 6250. 6800 lured modest buying in 2025, so it might slow down the selling, but it likely…

06/09/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer

We are witnessing stock market history. The older generation, me included, has seen this movie end. But as the last few years have taught us, nobody knows when and where it ends. Further, those exercising precautions to avoid a 30% to 50% haircut might find that, when that haircut comes, it merely takes prices down to where they began allocating away from stocks. Reminiscences of a Stock Market Observer

06/05/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

Not surprisingly, war markets bring volatility to the commodity sector. However, it is challenging to paint the aftermath as beneficial for anyone. As was the case in mid-to-late 2022, I find myself asking, “what are we even doing?” The hot money chasing assets not only interferes with logical price discovery but also impacts commodity producers, many of whom are family farms. Wars aren’t good for ag markets, and screw worms are living up to their name.

06/22/2026

Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans in San Francisco for the MoneyShow in August!

This multi-day event takes place at the Fairmont San Francisco, perched atop Nob Hill. Not only will there be opportunities for great sightseeing, but some of the industry's most popular names will be there, including Victoria Greene, Larry McDonald, Jim Bianco, Eric Balchunas, and more.

06/18/2026

Join us in Las Vegas for the MoneyShow!

It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :) It isn't too late to register for the Las Vegas MoneyShow! I'll be speaking with my long-time friend and colleague Phil Flynn. It will be fun and nostalgic :)

06/18/2026

Carley joined Ausbiz to talk about a dollar brekout

I joined @ausbiztv last night (morning in the AU) to talk about a potential breakout in the dollar. A stronger greenback changes the entire landscape, shifting from a tailwind for assets such as gold and stocks to a headwind. I also wrote about this in our client newsletter (and Substack) earlier this week. The currency markets might matter again.

06/10/2026

Is the screwworm fiasco already priced into cattle futures?

Stock and I discussed this on today's Cow Guy Close. Hint...I think it probably is. https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/erASrleY

06/01/2026

Shorten your commodity option trading learning curve.

I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity. I don't say this enough, but we write trading education books. I think they are pretty good, but I am biased. :) These are reviews of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity.

07/03/2026

Extreme heat wave threatens U.S. power grids and July 4 travel

The heat wave threatens to overwhelm U.S. grids and may force some to change their plans on one of the busiest travel weeks of the year.

07/03/2026

Oman walks a diplomatic tightrope over Strait of Hormuz fees, creating a ‘blind spot’ for markets

Oman is using strategic ambiguity as talks over possible Strait of Hormuz fees raise legal, diplomatic and oil market concerns.

07/03/2026

Venezuela quake toll climbs to 2,595 as damage estimates mount after strongest tremor in a century

Death toll from twin earthquakes that struck Venezuela jumped to 2,595, as rescue operations continued after the country's strongest tremors in over a century.

07/02/2026

250th Birthday Holiday Schedule

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in observance of the 250th birthday of the USA

06/23/2026

DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!

The new web-accessible margin calculator, known as Armor, includes the ability to calculate margin on positions you haven't placed yet and to experiment with "what if" scenarios regarding adding or subtracting from your current portfolio. You will also have the ability to view upcoming futures expirations and first notice days for open positions, as well as options expiration dates. DeCarley Trading clients now have access to a futures and options margin calculator!