05/08/2025
Strategy Idea...Let's put the 10-year play back on.
The seasonal low for Treasuries is this week, and we are past the FOMC meeting. Let's give it another try.
Recommendations
05/06/2025
Strategy Idea...July corn calls and/or puts are cheap.
July corn is 40 cents off the highs, but it is too early in the season to predict this year's crop yield, and support is near. We fully recognize the risk of the market breaking support and what that means for pricing ($3.50 wouldn't be impossible). Nevertheless, we like buying July calls on the cheap due to the timing and chart. The $4.70 calls aren't far out of the money and are less than a dime. If you are bearish or want to play a strangle, the $4.40 puts are only 7 or 8 cents. Corn futures are testing support; we suspect it holds and is cheap to find out.
05/02/2025
Strategy Idea...October call options might be a sweet deal.
The sugar futures market has spent a lot of time trading between 16.50 cents and 20.00 cents, but can't seem to make directional progress beyond a month or two. Given the upcoming bullish seasonality and the fact that we are near the bottom of the range, we like getting long call options in place with a lot of time to let things play out. This low and limited-risk play gives traders 137 days in the market. For years, sugar has been a trader's market, and trends have been sharp but short-lived.
04/25/2025
Strategy Idea...Bullish 10-Year Note Plays with Limited Risk
We highlighted our thoughts on the Treasury market in yesterday's DeCarley Perspective, so there is no need to rehash why we think the 10-year note might finally make a sustainable move to the upside. In our eyes, there are two ways to play it with reasonable and limited risk. Treasuries have experienced the worst three-year stretch in history, but this looks like a constructive bottom.
04/23/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy cheap December live cattle puts
The cattle market has been remarkably resilient. It is the ONLY commodity market that has managed to hold its commodity boom gains. It has lasted far longer than we expected, but that doesn't mean these prices are permanent. As many have been saying, there is a shortage of cattle per head, but there isn't a shortage of meat. Cattle are much heavier today than they were in the 1950s, with similarly tight numbers. In any case, humans will be humans. This feels a bit euphoric; we like buying cheap puts using December live cattle options just in case gravity takes over. Live cattle futures are near all-time highs, but can this continue? Puts are cheap, buy them.
04/23/2025
Strategy Idea...Bearish Seasonal Play in Coffee
After a wild winter, the coffee market appears to be working its way lower.
Newsletters
05/07/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Is the US Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status at Risk?
Is the US Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status at Risk? If so, what does that mean for the Greenback?
04/29/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...An overview of the impact of tariffs on commodities thus far
If trading were as easy as acting on the mainstream take, everyone would do it. Ironically, the consensus analysis is often the view that proves incorrect with time. In short, if everyone in the room thinks the same thing, then no one is thinking at all. An overview of the impact of tariffs on commodities thus far
04/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Perception and reality rarely align; look at Treasury volatility.
The 10-year note soared from about 1% in mid-2021 to 4.3% in October 2022, and despite some ups and downs, it is EXACTLY where it was after that historic yield rally (plunge in price). Yet, we let a few days of dysfunction alter our mindsets. We shouldn't. Treasury market volatility is near its historic comfort zone. Additionally, despite all the problems the US Treasury faces, it remains the least dirty shirt in the hamper. Perception and reality rarely align; look at Treasury volatility.
04/22/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...The Markets are Chaotic, but is it as Bad as it Feels?
The American exceptionalism trade has turned into a relative boycott of US assets. In late 2024 and early 2025, offshore money flowed into the US stock and bond markets in hopes of participating in the AI boom and the so-called Trump trade, but the market had it wrong. The Markets are Chaotic, but is it as Bad as it Feels?
04/11/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Black and Yellow Gold have followed very different paths; what is next?
Black and Yellow Gold have followed very different paths; what is next?
04/08/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Risk assets hit differently this week.
Last week, market participants were focused on the reward that comes with taking on more risk, but I’ll bet their mindsets have shifted. They are now asking themselves how much risk is needed per unit of potential reward. At the moment, the price tag is quite high. The term “Risk Asset” hits differently this week compared to last week.
Futures Chart Analysis
COFFEE ~ Monthly
NQ ~ Monthly
Money Supply vs S&P
Trade Balance vs S&P
DeCarley Press
05/06/2025
Carley Joined Chris Beers of NTD's Capitol Report to Discuss Crude Oil Fundamentals
Carley joined Chris Beers of NTD News to discuss the oil market and how enhanced sanctions on Iran and countries buying oil from Iran might impact pricing. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW
05/01/2025
Did we drain the SPR so quickly that we damaged the infrastructure? Was it worth it?
Did we drain the SPR so quickly that we damaged the infrastructure? Was it worth it? Perhaps it was; the US government sold the oil at an average price of $95.00 and now has the opportunity to slowly refill it at much lower prices. This was the topic of the hour yesterday with Scott Shellady on RFD-TV.
04/24/2025
Is the 10-year note a generational buying opportunity, or a trap? Scott and Carley hashed it out.
Either Carley has lost her marbles, or this is a generational opportunity in U.S. duration bonds. Scott Shellady and Carley discussed this on Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE CLIP
04/09/2025
Has crude oil bottomed? It might have, what happens at $65 matters!
Has crude oil bottomed? It might have, what happens at $65 matters! CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE SEGMENT
04/02/2025
Tony St. James and Carley Garner discuss failed crude oil rallies on RFD-TV
Since the March 2022 peak in oil, rallies have failed. Will this one be different, we doubt it. Today, I talked with @AllAgAllDay on @OfficialRFDTVabout what happened in 2014 and 2020 following a similar three-year period of lower highs.
Live Economic News/Data
05/09/2025
Trump's deal with the UK sends a clear message: 10% tariffs are here to stay
Tariffs of 10% at the very minimum could be the best deal other countries and trading blocs will achieve, according to analysts.
05/08/2025
Palantir now among 10 most valuable U.S. tech companies — its earnings multiple is astronomical
After Palantir's stock surge, investors now have to pay over 520 times earnings to buy it.
05/09/2025
Cargo thieves are attacking the U.S. supply chain at alarming rates
Numerous experts who spoke to CNBC estimate losses from cargo theft are close to $1 billion or more a year.
Notices
05/06/2025
Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas from July 15th through 17th!
Join DeCarley Trading and other industry veterans at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas from July 15th through 17th!
04/15/2025
The US Futures Markets will be closed on Friday the 18th in Observance of Good Friday.
We will be out of the office on Friday, April 18th, in observance of Good Friday.
02/14/2025
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day.
We will be out of the office on Monday, February 17th, in observance of Presidents' Day. As usual, the 24-hour StoneX trade desk will be open during the abbreviated session. If there is an emergency, text or email us using the contact information below.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 05/08/2025
British pound slides after BOE cut; volatility dips, spec longs increase. 5/8/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/08/2025
Treasury yields jump to 4.38% on weak auction; Fed speakers return Friday. 5/8/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/08/2025
Equity Index futures rally on trade optimism; bitcoin tops $102k, ES options volume surges. 5/8/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/08/2025
Natural Gas futures retreat after rally; EIA build tops forecast, demand remains light. 5/8/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/08/2025
Gold futures drop as risk appetite returns; Fed signals wait-and-see approach. 5/8/25
CME Group
Posted on 05/08/2025
Is Silver Ready to Catch Up to Gold?
CME Group
