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Recommendations

04/01/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy June Crude Oil Puts.
News of potential "secondary" tariffs on Russian oil and other measures threatens to remove substantial barrels of supply from the market. Accordingly, we have seen oil rally from what was previously a stark technical support level in the mid-$60.00s. Perhaps the bulls have received a stick-save by politicians, or maybe this is just another rally that gets sold. We are leaning toward the latter, but selling calls at what are unattractive prices due to low volatility doesn't seem like a good idea. Instead, we like buying cheap puts. Crude oil puts are relatively cheap; we like nibbling on them.
03/31/2025
Strategy Idea...Get Long(er) Wheat with Sept Risk Reversals
The wheat market was a victim of its own success. The Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred years ago, but we are still feeling the aftermath. The initial market reaction was a roaring rally, but producers and end users were caught in the spin cycle, causing many farmers to hold wheat in the bins in recent years, hoping for a return to the glory days. Perhaps the most recent rallies allowed those bin holders to wipe the slate clean. If so, wheat futures trolling its multi-year trendline are attractive. Wheat might have finally worked off the Russian-Invasion froth
03/28/2025
Strategy Idea...Long Haul Bearish Cattle Hedge or Spec
We have yet to see a market survive high prices. The result is always demand destruction; sometimes, it just takes a little longer. Cattle ranchers or speculators might want to consider a long-haul strategy that won't take too much heat unless prices continue at a parabolic rate but will be there in a nice way if the market rolls over The historic cattle rally feels like it will last forever, but it won't.
03/25/2025
Strategy Idea...Consider strangling July corn (with options, not your hands).
The global inventories for corn are challenged, but a weakness theme appears to be brewing in several commodities. With options cheap and a USDA report coming up next week, we think it is worth having both sides of the trade on. Last week we suggested buying July corn calls, we changed our minds...strangles make more sense.
03/20/2025
Strategy Idea...July Soybean Calls (or Strangles)
Soybeans tend to make a seasonal low in mid-to-late March, and the market has managed to hold trendline support since posting its late-December low. Yet, we are heading into a volatile tariff season and a USDA report at the end of the month. While we are leaning higher, for now, the bottom could fall out. For this reason, we like buying low or limited-risk call options. July Soybeans Options are Unusually Cheap. Buy them.
03/18/2025
Strategy Idea...July Corn Calls (AGAIN)
It is too early to call this year's production a bumper crop. Thus, we suspect support near the trendline and the 200-day Moving Average will hold. We like buying back the $4.90 calls to get a foot in the door with low and limited risk. According to WASDE, the world stocks-to-use ratio is tight, so there should be plenty of opportunity for weather-scare rallies. If you took profits on the July $4.90 calls, buy them back.

Newsletters

03/26/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Livestock futures have forgotten they are a commodity (not a meme stock)
The livestock market, particularly feeder and live cattle, has been overwhelmingly bullish. Being a bear is a lonely existence. It is not lost on me that I’ve completely underestimated the cattle bull (no pun intended), but I’ve yet to see a commodity market survive the reality of high prices curing high prices. Livestock futures have forgotten they are a commodity (not a meme stock)
03/13/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Tariffs and Commodities: This is the part nobody is saying out loud.
The jury is still out on how tariffs will impact commodity prices. There will be winners and losers across sectors and products; those details will reveal themselves and change daily. Thus, it is a fool's errand to try to predict the future by guessing how the next X or Truth Social post will impact the markets. All we can do is be aware of what happened the last time we found ourselves in this environment. Tariffs and Commodities: This is the part nobody is saying out loud.
03/11/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...We are getting 2014 and 2020 vibes in crude oil.
From here, we can see why traders are interested in being long the crude oil market. The mid-$ 60.00s have been supportive for years. Both before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the oil market has lured dip buyers in the $60.00 to $65.00 area. We are getting 2014 and 2020 vibes in crude oil.
02/27/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Should the U.S. Sell its Gold to Pay Off Debt?
The price of gold has been a source of prosperity for the patient bulls, but the gravy train has probably left the station. Of course, we could be wrong about this, but history is on our side. Should the U.S. Sell its Gold to Pay Off Debt?
02/12/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Coffee and gold have almost nothing in common Setup Design Content Send
Coffee and gold have almost nothing in common, but the algorithms/funds behave like one asset. Coffee and gold have almost nothing in common, but the algorithms/funds behave like one asset.
01/28/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Read the room using copper and crude oil charts.
According to the Commitments of Traders Report, market participants are overwhelmingly positioned for higher inflation (long commodities), higher interest rates (short Treasuries and short Yen), and higher growth (long stocks). But with everyone on the same side of the boat, what if something tips it the other way, causing simultaneous position squaring? According to the Commitments of Traders Report, market participants are overwhelmingly positioned for higher inflation (long commodities), higher interest rates (short Treasuries and short Yen), and higher growth (long stocks). But with everyone on the same side of the boat, what if something tips it the other way, causing simultaneous position squaring? We can’t see into the future better than anyone else can, but overcrowded trades are always temporary, and their unwinding can cause uncivilized markets. We saw a mini version of this play out late last summer. We don’t know if we will get a repeat or something much worse, but we…

Futures Chart Analysis

NQ ~ Monthly
Money Supply vs S&P
Trade Balance vs S&P
ES ~ Monthly

Cow Guy Close

See Carley Every Wednesday

DeCarley Press

04/02/2025
Tony St. James and Carley Garner discuss failed crude oil rallies on RFD-TV
Since the March 2022 peak in oil, rallies have failed. Will this one be different, we doubt it. Today, I talked with @AllAgAllDay on @OfficialRFDTVabout what happened in 2014 and 2020 following a similar three-year period of lower highs.
03/24/2025
The hill Carley will die on: high commodity prices cure high commodity prices
There is a lot of HOT money in the cattle market. There are more net long futures now than ever before. Also, the open interest in the feeder futures is at an all-time-high of 80,000, the previous record was 60,000. Everyone wants to be long at these prices except for the consumer. The risk of being long and wrong is substantial. Link to video clip is in the comments. There is a lot of HOT money in the cattle market. There are more net long futures now than ever before. Also, the open interest in the feeder futures is at an all-time-high of 80,000, the previous record was 60,000. Everyone wants to be long at these prices except for the consumer. The risk of being long and wrong is substantial. Link to video clip is in the comments.
03/20/2025
Carley will be hosing a FREE webinar next week!
Carley Garner will be presenting at the annual Women in Trading Online Education Event!
03/20/2025
Live Cattle and Corn on Cow Guy Close with Tommy Grisafi
Yesterday, Tommy Grisafi and I discussed corn and cattle on the Cow Guy Close. Aside from the risk of demand destruction from China over tariffs, the corn market is pointing higher. Call options are cheap! Yesterday, Tommy Grisafi and I discussed corn and cattle on the Cow Guy Close. Aside from the risk of demand destruction from China over tariffs, the corn market is pointing higher. Call options are cheap!
01/08/2025
The Cow Guy and Carley discussed crude oil fundamentals and technicals.
Oil reversed from a nearly 3-year trendline today. Will the rally be liquidated? Carley Garner, futures and options broker at DeCarley Trading discussed it with Scott Shellady on the Cow Guy Close. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP

Live Economic News/Data

04/04/2025
Shoppers will pay more for bananas, coffee and toilet paper because of tariffs, trade group says
Grocery bills will likely rise as shoppers pay more for household staples because of the Trump administration's new tariffs.
04/04/2025
Federal Reserve is unlikely to rescue markets and economy from tariff turmoil anytime soon
Should the president hold fast to his tougher-than-expected trade policy, there's a material risk of at least near-term costs.
04/04/2025
U.S. tariff rates under Trump will be higher than the Smoot-Hawley levels from Great Depression era
Evercore ISI strategist Sarah Bianchi said the new policies put the effective tariff rate above the level of around 20% set by 1930's Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Notices

02/14/2025
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day.
We will be out of the office on Monday, February 17th, in observance of Presidents' Day. As usual, the 24-hour StoneX trade desk will be open during the abbreviated session. If there is an emergency, text or email us using the contact information below.
12/23/2024
Futures markets will close early on Tuesday and will be closed entirely on Wednesday.
We will be out of the office on Tuesday, December 24th, after noon Central and all of Wednesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. We will be in the office on Thursday and Friday. We will be out of the office on Tuesday, December 24th, after noon Central and all of Wednesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. We will be in the office on Thursday and Friday.
12/11/2024
If you notice incorrect positions or orders in your platform, please call the StoneX desk. There are a small number of accounts that traded last night who are experiencing such issues.

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 04/03/2025
Broad risk asset sell-off raises consumer demand concerns: Live Cattle futures fall. 4/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/03/2025
Global trade concerns raise questions over commodity demand: Grains futures fall. 4/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/03/2025
OPEC raises its output by 411,000 barrels/day: WTI Crude Oil futures plunge 7%. 4/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/03/2025
S&P 500 plunges amid broad sell-off in risk assets. 4/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/03/2025
Copper follows other risk assets lower in steep sell-off. 4/3/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/03/2025
Euro futures trade in their widest range since Brexit. 4/3/25
CME Group

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by Carley Garner

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.