Recommendations

01/17/2025
Strategy Idea...July Corn Risk Reversals.
Since Brazil entered the corn-growing game, seasonality and market norms have seemingly been thrown out the window. Further, farmers have gotten a little more aggressive in holding/storing grain in hopes of better prices. The Corn Rally has been Impressive, but History Suggests it is a Better Sell than a Buy.
01/15/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Coffee and Cattle have more in Common than the Letter "C".
Cattle, coffee, and cocoa producers have enjoyed historical rallies. Unfortunately, unusually high input costs to produce these commodities have left them with a bad taste in their mouths. Despite high commodity prices and massive cash revenue, profit-making has been difficult for some producers due to elevated energy, labor, and fertilizer costs. Coffee, Cattle, and Cocoa have more than a Letter in Common; they Share Historical Downside Risk and Producer Complacency.
01/13/2025
Now that the WASDE stocks are bullish, what should we be doing?
It's never fun to be the party pooper, but according to historical pricing, these are great prices to start locking in corn prices. The same can be said of livestock (live cattle and feeder cattle). Scott Shellady and I discussed this on the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE CLIP
01/09/2025
Most markets will close early today in observance of President Carter's funeral.
January 9th will be a National Day of Mourning for the late President Jimmy Carter. The exchanges will adjust closing times as noted below. Please ensure your account is properly within margin limits prior to the early close. January 9th will be a National Day of Mourning for the late President Jimmy Carter. The exchanges will adjust closing times as noted below. Please ensure your account is properly within margin limits prior to the early close.
01/07/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy flyers in wheat.
The futures market has been making lower lows while the RSI is making higher lows. This is a tell-tale sign of a potential market reversal. Further, wheat futures have recently bounced off of support and appear to be testing a multi-year downtrend line. Wheat futures could be bottoming; here is a low and limited-risk play.
01/02/2025
Strategy Idea...April Crude Oil Bearish Play.
Despite unprecedented stimulus, China's economy can't seem to pick itself up off the mat. Further, a high US dollar and bearish seasonality are working against the oil rally. Crude oil has been quietly pushing higher, but seasonality and chart resistance suggest it might not last.

Newsletters

01/06/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Crude oil is probably bull trapping.
Crude oil rallies have a way of garnering bullish enthusiasm despite years of consistently lower highs. Since peaking in March 2022, the oil market has attempted multiple rallies backed by compelling storylines, yet each has been a false flag. Until this pattern breaks, we have to assume it will continue. Accordingly, the current oil up move is likely better traded from the short side than the long side. Crude oil rallies have made lower highs since March 2022; we are probably bull trapping.
12/17/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Overcrowded trades, extreme correlations, high leverage. What could go wrong?
Highly correlated markets can signify complacency, an environment of heavy algo trading influence, or both. As we approach the depths of the holiday season, trading volume is dwindling to what are usually annual lows. Further, many pivotal futures contracts expire between Thanksgiving and Christmas, creating a bit of a pain-trade price squeeze as those under duress hold on until the last minute, hoping for relief. Both December currency and Treasury futures drop off the board this week. Overcrowded trades, extreme correlations, high leverage. What could go wrong?
11/12/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...We are being gaslit by our quote boards.
The hardest thing to do as a human is to trust what we know, not what we see. It’s hard not to have FOMO watching stocks soar higher while being under allocated. Yet, stocks are as expensive now as they have ever been. On many metrics, equities valuations are equivalent to the dot-com bubble highs. Perhaps this continues, but when we look around our quote boards, we know that there are significant headwinds to the rally that probably haven’t been accounted for. Also, some markets are outright signaling deflation and negative growth. We are being gaslit by our quote boards.
11/11/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Post-Election, TINA Hits Different
The acronym TINA (There is No Alternative) was born in the near zero-interest rate era and referred to the justification of keeping money in stocks even if the fundamental backdrop and prospective risk suggested it was aggressive to do so. In short, for almost two decades, TINA encouraged overzealous risk-taking because risk-off assets weren’t producing yield, and it worked tremendously for investors. Post-Election, TINA Hits Different
11/01/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Concerning action in crude oil going into the weekend.
Something is brewing in crude oil. The last time I saw crude oil call options disconnect from the underlying futures like this was in the days before Russia Invading Ukraine. Crude oil is up slightly over a dollar overnight, but out-of-the-money call options have roughly doubled in value across the chain. Is something brewing in crude oil?
10/24/2024
The DeCarley Perspective...Are the copper and yen markets telling us something?
I’ve been a futures and options broker for over two decades; I’ve seen, experienced, and felt a lot. What I am seeing on my quote board, hearing from the talking heads, and reading on social media and chat boards this week is concerning. Complacency is at an all-time high, while event risk is arguably similarly elevated. We should all be on high alert going forward. Are the copper and yen markets telling us something?

Futures Chart Analysis

GF ~ Monthly
DX ~ Monthly
EGC ~ Monthly
Crude Oil ~ Weekly

DeCarley Press

01/08/2025
The Cow Guy and Carley discussed crude oil fundamentals and technicals.
Oil reversed from a nearly 3-year trendline today. Will the rally be liquidated? Carley Garner, futures and options broker at DeCarley Trading discussed it with Scott Shellady on the Cow Guy Close. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE CLIP
11/14/2024
Trading is hard. Carley spoke about gold volatility with the Cow Guy.
Carley Garner and Scott Shellady spoke about the relationship between gold and the "Trump trade" on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close. Garner spoke about the challenges of trading markets into and after a risky event such as the Presidential Election. Carley Garner and Scott Shellady spoke about the relationship between gold and the "Trump trade" on RFD-TV's Cow Guy Close. Garner spoke about the challenges of trading markets into and after a risky event such as the Presidential Election.
11/06/2024
Are the Trump tariffs already priced into the grain markets? Scott and I reminisce about the last Chinese trade war.
Are the Trump tariffs already priced into the grain markets? Scott and I reminisce about the last Chinese trade war. Click here to watch this segment of the Cow Guy Close discussing soybean prices and Trump tariffs.
10/23/2024
Jim Rogers is nervous, for good reason. We spoke about it on Cow Guy Close with Scott Shellady
Jim Rogers, author of Hot Commodities, points out that we are due for a financial catastrophe. He suggests that perhaps buying silver and agriculture is a better bet than some other markets (although he notes cash is king). I spoke about it with Scott Shellady on Cow Guy Close. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO
10/17/2024
Something big is happening in Treasuries and Gold, Carley talked about it on Ausbiz
Traders and even funds hold the most significant net short position ever seen in Treasury futures. This is an aggressive position to "fight the Fed"; do they know something we don't, or will it be unwound to push rates lower and Treasuries higher? CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

Notices

12/23/2024
Futures markets will close early on Tuesday and will be closed entirely on Wednesday.
We will be out of the office on Tuesday, December 24th, after noon Central and all of Wednesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. We will be in the office on Thursday and Friday. We will be out of the office on Tuesday, December 24th, after noon Central and all of Wednesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. We will be in the office on Thursday and Friday.
12/11/2024
If you notice incorrect positions or orders in your platform, please call the StoneX desk. There are a small number of accounts that traded last night who are experiencing such issues.
11/26/2024
Thanksgiving Trading Schedule
We will be out of the office on Thursday, November 28th, in observance of Thanksgiving Day. We will be in the office on Friday while the markets are open, but we encourage all of you to keep your screens off and focus on friends and family. The futures markets will be closed on Thursday and most of Friday.

Trading Webinar Archives

Posted on 10/27/2023
Seasonally bullish option spread strategy using E-mini S&P 500 futures options.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/29/2023
Commodity Option Trading in Today's Market Environment
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 09/07/2023
I'll be speaking in Sydney Australia at the Australian Technical Analysts Association Conference!
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 08/01/2023
Revisiting July 2022 Commodity Option Trading Strategies
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
The Futures Markets can be used for Portfolio Hedging and Portfolio diversification.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 07/25/2022
Strategizing in today's hot commodity markets.
DeCarley Trading

Live Economic News/Data

01/17/2025
Supreme Court upholds TikTok ban, but Trump might offer lifeline
Although President-elect Donald Trump could choose to not enforce the law, it's unclear whether third-party internet service providers will support the app.
01/17/2025
Vanguard to pay more than $100 million to SEC over violations involving target date retirement funds
The payment stems from a 2020 change by Vanguard that led to redemptions in one class of target date funds.
01/17/2025
DOJ sues Walgreens for 'knowingly' filling millions of prescriptions that lacked legit medical purposes
Some Walgreens patients died of overdose deaths shortly after getting invalid prescriptions filled at Walgreens, the DOJ alleges in the new lawsuit.

Futures Market News

Posted on 01/17/2025
March Soybean futures close up 15¢. 1/17/25
CME Group
Posted on 01/17/2025
Nasdaq futures rebound, hit 2-week high. 1/17/25
CME Group
Posted on 01/17/2025
Gold closes higher for 3rd week. 1/17/25
CME Group
Posted on 01/17/2025
Yen futures drop after 2-day rally. 1/17/25
CME Group
Posted on 01/17/2025
Forward Look with Bob Iaccino: Earnings ramp up. 1/17/25
CME Group
Posted on 01/16/2025
S&P 500 futures near unchanged just below 6,000 level. 1/16/25
CME Group

Commodity Trading Books

by Carley Garner

News & Research

Document/ID Submission

Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.