12/16/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Crude oil has been a slow-motion train wreck. What’s next?
The oil market has been in a perpetual decline since peaking in March 2022; this is ironic, as at the time, market sentiment for energy commodities was arguably at its highest level since the 2008 peak. The oil market has been in a perpetual decline since peaking in March 2022; this is ironic, as at the time, market sentiment for energy commodities was arguably at its highest level since the 2008 peak. Both of these historical summits were accompanied by the most bullish fundamental story imaginable. In 2008, analysts were focused on the Peak Oil Theory. This was the idea that oil is a finite resource, so discovery and production rates eventually plateau and decline, forcing prices higher. Because of this and a hot economy, market participants pushed prices to $150 per barrel; at the time, analysts were sure we would see $200, or even $250, sooner rather than later. While the Peak Oil Theory is obviously true, eventually, fracking shattered the idea that peak supply would occur in the…
