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Recommendations

04/25/2025
Strategy Idea...Bullish 10-Year Note Plays with Limited Risk
We highlighted our thoughts on the Treasury market in yesterday's DeCarley Perspective, so there is no need to rehash why we think the 10-year note might finally make a sustainable move to the upside. In our eyes, there are two ways to play it with reasonable and limited risk. Treasuries have experienced the worst three-year stretch in history, but this looks like a constructive bottom.
04/23/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy cheap December live cattle puts
The cattle market has been remarkably resilient. It is the ONLY commodity market that has managed to hold its commodity boom gains. It has lasted far longer than we expected, but that doesn't mean these prices are permanent. As many have been saying, there is a shortage of cattle per head, but there isn't a shortage of meat. Cattle are much heavier today than they were in the 1950s, with similarly tight numbers. In any case, humans will be humans. This feels a bit euphoric; we like buying cheap puts using December live cattle options just in case gravity takes over. Live cattle futures are near all-time highs, but can this continue? Puts are cheap, buy them.
04/23/2025
Strategy Idea...Bearish Seasonal Play in Coffee
After a wild winter, the coffee market appears to be working its way lower.
04/21/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy cheap euro puts with plenty of time.
The pace of dollar outflow has been stunning. We aren't sure it is over, but it is probably worth having a cheap option play in place just in case. The pace of dollar outflow has been stunning. We aren't sure it is over, but it is probably worth having a cheap option play in place just in case.
04/17/2025
Strategy Idea...Put Butterflies in July crude oil.
There is a good chance the oil market has essentially fallen into a lower trading range, with resistance at $65.00 and support between $50.00 and $40.00. Yet, there is a real danger of an escalation in Iran, leading to the oil market jumping back into its previous trading range. If that happens, we don't want to be holding the bag We want to be short oil but don't want unlimited risk. Here is how we think it should be played.
04/17/2025
Strategy Idea...Feeder cattle risk reversals part deux
The RSI suggests that despite the recent rally, momentum is waning. We know, we have believed this before, and cattle have mostly defied gravity, but eventually, commodities always succumb to high prices. Further, it will be difficult for livestock traders to remain optimistic if assets such as equities and real estate continue to soften. In our view, the reverse wealth effect is a massive risk to lofty cattle pricing. This might be the last hurrah rally for feeder cattle.

Newsletters

04/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Perception and reality rarely align; look at Treasury volatility.
The 10-year note soared from about 1% in mid-2021 to 4.3% in October 2022, and despite some ups and downs, it is EXACTLY where it was after that historic yield rally (plunge in price). Yet, we let a few days of dysfunction alter our mindsets. We shouldn't. Treasury market volatility is near its historic comfort zone. Additionally, despite all the problems the US Treasury faces, it remains the least dirty shirt in the hamper. Perception and reality rarely align; look at Treasury volatility.
04/22/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...The Markets are Chaotic, but is it as Bad as it Feels?
The American exceptionalism trade has turned into a relative boycott of US assets. In late 2024 and early 2025, offshore money flowed into the US stock and bond markets in hopes of participating in the AI boom and the so-called Trump trade, but the market had it wrong. The Markets are Chaotic, but is it as Bad as it Feels?
04/11/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Black and Yellow Gold have followed very different paths; what is next?
Black and Yellow Gold have followed very different paths; what is next?
04/08/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Risk assets hit differently this week.
Last week, market participants were focused on the reward that comes with taking on more risk, but I’ll bet their mindsets have shifted. They are now asking themselves how much risk is needed per unit of potential reward. At the moment, the price tag is quite high. The term “Risk Asset” hits differently this week compared to last week.
03/26/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Livestock futures have forgotten they are a commodity (not a meme stock)
The livestock market, particularly feeder and live cattle, has been overwhelmingly bullish. Being a bear is a lonely existence. It is not lost on me that I’ve completely underestimated the cattle bull (no pun intended), but I’ve yet to see a commodity market survive the reality of high prices curing high prices. Livestock futures have forgotten they are a commodity (not a meme stock)
03/13/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Tariffs and Commodities: This is the part nobody is saying out loud.
The jury is still out on how tariffs will impact commodity prices. There will be winners and losers across sectors and products; those details will reveal themselves and change daily. Thus, it is a fool's errand to try to predict the future by guessing how the next X or Truth Social post will impact the markets. All we can do is be aware of what happened the last time we found ourselves in this environment. Tariffs and Commodities: This is the part nobody is saying out loud.

Futures Chart Analysis

COFFEE ~ Monthly
NQ ~ Monthly
Money Supply vs S&P
Trade Balance vs S&P

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DeCarley Press

04/24/2025
Is the 10-year note a generational buying opportunity, or a trap? Scott and Carley hashed it out.
Either Carley has lost her marbles, or this is a generational opportunity in U.S. duration bonds. Scott Shellady and Carley discussed this on Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE CLIP
04/09/2025
Has crude oil bottomed? It might have, what happens at $65 matters!
Has crude oil bottomed? It might have, what happens at $65 matters! CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE SEGMENT
04/02/2025
Tony St. James and Carley Garner discuss failed crude oil rallies on RFD-TV
Since the March 2022 peak in oil, rallies have failed. Will this one be different, we doubt it. Today, I talked with @AllAgAllDay on @OfficialRFDTVabout what happened in 2014 and 2020 following a similar three-year period of lower highs.
03/24/2025
The hill Carley will die on: high commodity prices cure high commodity prices
There is a lot of HOT money in the cattle market. There are more net long futures now than ever before. Also, the open interest in the feeder futures is at an all-time-high of 80,000, the previous record was 60,000. Everyone wants to be long at these prices except for the consumer. The risk of being long and wrong is substantial. Link to video clip is in the comments. There is a lot of HOT money in the cattle market. There are more net long futures now than ever before. Also, the open interest in the feeder futures is at an all-time-high of 80,000, the previous record was 60,000. Everyone wants to be long at these prices except for the consumer. The risk of being long and wrong is substantial. Link to video clip is in the comments.
03/20/2025
Carley will be hosing a FREE webinar next week!
Carley Garner will be presenting at the annual Women in Trading Online Education Event!

Live Economic News/Data

04/25/2025
Buy now, stock up or delay: Here's what consumers are snapping up or putting off in face of tariffs
Fears of tariff-related higher prices have motivated consumers to buy cars early, but it's also contributing to a hesitance to buy and a hunger for deals.
04/26/2025
Trump dinner for meme coin buyers prompts senators to demand ethics probe
Senators Adam Schiff and Elizabeth Warren are calling for an ethics investigation into President Trump's promotion of his meme coin.
04/26/2025
Yale classmates warn Trump Treasury Secretary Bessent he risks enabling descent 'into fascism'
A new letter to Scott Bessent accuses President Donald Trump of usurping the authority of Congress and U.S. courts since regaining the White House.

Notices

04/15/2025
The US Futures Markets will be closed on Friday the 18th in Observance of Good Friday.
We will be out of the office on Friday, April 18th, in observance of Good Friday.
02/14/2025
For all intents and purposes, the futures markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day.
We will be out of the office on Monday, February 17th, in observance of Presidents' Day. As usual, the 24-hour StoneX trade desk will be open during the abbreviated session. If there is an emergency, text or email us using the contact information below.
12/23/2024
Futures markets will close early on Tuesday and will be closed entirely on Wednesday.
We will be out of the office on Tuesday, December 24th, after noon Central and all of Wednesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. We will be in the office on Thursday and Friday. We will be out of the office on Tuesday, December 24th, after noon Central and all of Wednesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. We will be in the office on Thursday and Friday.

Platform Tutorial Videos

Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading

Futures Market News

Posted on 04/25/2025
Copper futures close week up 2% ahead of Chinese PMI data. 4/25/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2025
Yen futures hit 10-day low ahead of next week's Bank of Japan meeting. 4/25/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2025
10-Year Treasury Note yield lower ahead of next week's jobs data. 4/25/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2025
Dow, Russell 2000 futures near flat as investors rotate in to S&P 500, Nasdaq. 4/25/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2025
WTI Crude Oil futures gain for 2nd session as rig counts tick higher. 4/25/25
CME Group
Posted on 04/25/2025
Live Cattle futures mixed amid strong cash market. 4/25/25
CME Group

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by Carley Garner

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Risk Disclosure

*Substantial risk of loss in trading.