11/25/2025
Strategy Idea...If you bought the Jan corn put, consider this adjustment
Strategy Idea...If you bought the Jan corn put, consider this adjustment *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Recommendations
11/20/2025
Strategy Idea...Long Mini Yen vs a Full-Sized Put
The Yen carry trade is a popular speculation that aims to exploit low or negative interest rates in Japan by borrowing cheaply in Yen to purchase higher-yielding assets around the world denominated in other currencies *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
11/18/2025
Strategy Idea...Soybean Risk Reversals to Hedge or Spec
The world was short grains going into the Trump trade war; while we have yet to see COT (Commitments of Traders) figures since pre-government shutdown, we suspect all of the grain shorts have been unwound, and we might even be seeing a net long position being held by speculators. Beans are shooting toward the teens, but...
11/14/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy December E-mini calls.
Even amid the financial crisis, stocks rallied over the holiday season. It is very unusual for large, sustained selling to occur at this time of year, and we have learned that fighting it is a losing battle. However, the recent dip has run some premium off call options, and the overnight futures market low appears to be a rejection of selling at the trendline. Thus, if you want to play the upside ahead of what is almost always a seasonal upswing, you can buy a December 4100 call for less than a thousand dollars and sleep well at night. We aren't bullish on the stock market, but...
11/10/2025
Strategy Idea...Synthetic Calls in March Treasury Bonds
Treasuries have quietly been rallying; seasonality suggests the trend continues. Treasuries have quietly been rallying; seasonality suggests the trend continues.
11/05/2025
Strategy Idea...Synthetic Calls in March Cotton
Cotton has been a dog, but even dogs have their day (eventually). Cotton has been a dog, but even dogs have their day (eventually).
Newsletters
11/26/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...A Misconception on Commodity Inflation: A Quick Look at Coffee and Cocoa
Common sense would imply that the prices of commonly used commodities such as coffee, cocoa (or even crude oil, livestock, etc.) would increase over time along with inflation. A Misconception on Commodity Inflation: A Quick Look at Coffee and Cocoa
11/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Bitcoin was the first clue; will the Yen be the next?
The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has pursued ultra-accommodative monetary policy for decades to stimulate growth and combat inflation. Specifically, the central bank held interest rates at 0% or slightly negative from 2016 through 2024. This practice has achieved its inflation goals but has failed to generate the growth it desires, and it has attracted exploitation of its financial system by market participants. Bitcoin was the first clue; will the Yen be the next?
11/11/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...7 S&P 500 Stocks are Running Hot, 493 are not.
I don’t recall a time when the concentration risk in the stock market was this extreme. That same sentence could have been typed a year ago, and it really hasn’t mattered yet. I don’t recall a time when the concentration risk in the stock market was this extreme. That same sentence could have been typed a year ago, and it really hasn’t mattered yet. Aside from a temporary blip in early 2025, stock indices have forged unfathomable gains on the backs of a few stocks while most tickers have languished. If the train stays on the track, this isn’t a problem. But if something derails the train, the damage will be catastrophic. This is because prosperity is so concentrated that even investors blindly shoveling money into 401(k)s, with the perception of diversity, are at risk of being bag holders if the Magnificent 7 (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla) reprice to reasonable valuations. In other words, there is an argument to be made that money flows into ETFs…
11/04/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Are Soybean Futures Bull Trapping on the China Truce?
Are Soybean Futures Bull Trapping on the China Truce? Are Soybean Futures Bull Trapping on the China Truce?
10/31/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Ags and politics don’t mix well. What happens next?
Ags and politics don’t mix well. What happens next? Ags and politics don’t mix well. What happens next?
10/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Silver is not an investment; it is a speculative identity crisis.
Renewable or readily available commodities such as corn, wheat, coffee, and crude oil are perpetually trapped within a cycle of oversupply followed by undersupply. Precious metals, on the other hand, are expected to appreciate over time. Silver is not an investment; it is a speculative identity crisis.
Futures Chart Analysis
DX ~ Monthly
EHG ~ Weekly
Bloomberg Commodity Index ~ Monthly
Feeder Cattle
DeCarley Press
10/09/2025
Occidental (OXY) Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Continues to Fall
We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.
10/09/2025
Carley Garner joined Trading360 on Schwab to discuss the Occidental Petroleum deal with Berkshire Hathway
Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps
10/08/2025
Scott Shellady and Carley spoke about gold on Cow Guy Close today.
In 2020, investors chose Treasury bonds as their risk-off asset of choice. They couldn't get enough Treasuries, which were yielding less than a percent, in their portfolios. Mass accumulation of Treasuries to hedge economic and political uncertainty was the most popular narrative and trade. However, five years later, it proved to be the worst trade imaginable. In fact, although they intended to hedge risk, they were actually running into a burning house. We suspect the 2025 gold rally will eventually suffer the same fate. Here are the major takeaways, with a link to the video below -
09/08/2025
What is next for ags with the WASDE on tap?
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
08/08/2025
Gold tariffs trigger overnight rally
Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show. Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show.
Live Economic News/Data
11/28/2025
How Black Friday became a retail letdown: 'To sustain the ride, they started to dilute it'
Black Friday used to be the biggest in-person shopping event of the year, but for six straight years, online sales have outpaced stores.
11/29/2025
Airbus A320 recall disrupts global travel after glitch linked to solar flares
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency said in a directive that a JetBlue flight on Oct. 30 experienced an "uncommanded and limited pitch down event."
11/28/2025
Trump says U.S. to 'permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries’ after DC shooting
The president said he would also terminate "millions" of admissions under his predecessor Joe Biden and remove "anyone who is not a net asset" to the U.S.
Notices
09/18/2025
Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones tomorrow.
Due to circumstances beyond our control (rescheduled flights at the discretion of the airline), we will not be in the office tomorrow.
08/29/2025
Labor Day Holiday Schedule
We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.
08/27/2025
Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?
We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 11/28/2025
Soybean, Corn and Wheat futures rose on demand optimism. 11/28/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/28/2025
Feeder Cattle futures surged to limit up on border news. 11/28/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/28/2025
Jobs data, Powell and OPEC meeting in focus for next week. 11/28/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/28/2025
Powell speech and labor data in in focus for next week. 12/1/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/28/2025
December Euro futures dropped from nine-session high. 11/28/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/26/2025
Nasdaq-100 futures rallied on soft economic data. 11/26/25
CME Group
