11/10/2025
Strategy Idea...Synthetic Calls in March Treasury Bonds
Treasuries have quietly been rallying; seasonality suggests the trend continues. Treasuries have quietly been rallying; seasonality suggests the trend continues.
Recommendations
11/05/2025
Strategy Idea...Synthetic Calls in March Cotton
Cotton has been a dog, but even dogs have their day (eventually). Cotton has been a dog, but even dogs have their day (eventually).
11/03/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy January Crude Oil Puts
KEEP IN TOUCH WITH US REGARDING ADJUSTMENTS, EXITS, ETC.!!! Because each client has different circumstances, we are more comfortable offering trade maintenance support individually.
10/29/2025
Strategy Idea...S&P Risk Reversals to Hedge or Spec, or Premium Collect
The S&P has a lot going for it, but the chart is dicey. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
10/29/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy January Soybean Puts
The soybean market spent a year trading in a contracting wedge pattern. This week, we saw prices break above the trendline for the first time as traders began pricing in the possibility of Chinese demand coming on board. But as we mentioned in yesterday's corn put option purchase recommendation, China's goal isn't to cooperate, it is to "buy" themselves some time. Thus, we aren't "buying" the story. Soybeans broke out, but it feels like a bull trap.
10/28/2025
Strategy Idea...Buy January Corn Puts
Corn futures were rejected at technical resistance. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
Newsletters
11/11/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...7 S&P 500 Stocks are Running Hot, 493 are not.
I don’t recall a time when the concentration risk in the stock market was this extreme. That same sentence could have been typed a year ago, and it really hasn’t mattered yet. I don’t recall a time when the concentration risk in the stock market was this extreme. That same sentence could have been typed a year ago, and it really hasn’t mattered yet. Aside from a temporary blip in early 2025, stock indices have forged unfathomable gains on the backs of a few stocks while most tickers have languished. If the train stays on the track, this isn’t a problem. But if something derails the train, the damage will be catastrophic. This is because prosperity is so concentrated that even investors blindly shoveling money into 401(k)s, with the perception of diversity, are at risk of being bag holders if the Magnificent 7 (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla) reprice to reasonable valuations. In other words, there is an argument to be made that money flows into ETFs…
11/04/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Are Soybean Futures Bull Trapping on the China Truce?
Are Soybean Futures Bull Trapping on the China Truce? Are Soybean Futures Bull Trapping on the China Truce?
10/31/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Ags and politics don’t mix well. What happens next?
Ags and politics don’t mix well. What happens next? Ags and politics don’t mix well. What happens next?
10/24/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...Silver is not an investment; it is a speculative identity crisis.
Renewable or readily available commodities such as corn, wheat, coffee, and crude oil are perpetually trapped within a cycle of oversupply followed by undersupply. Precious metals, on the other hand, are expected to appreciate over time. Silver is not an investment; it is a speculative identity crisis.
10/17/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...There are a lot of eggs going into the same basket because it is working.
Traders and investors have embraced the “the trend is your friend” mantra in 2025, and it has worked for those who have plugged their noses and jumped into the crowded pool. In other words, risk-takers who jump on momentum assets, regardless of fundamentals, have been rewarded, while traditionally diversified portfolios have been left behind. There are a lot of eggs going into the same basket because it is working.
10/10/2025
The DeCarley Perspective...The Timing of the Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway Deal wasn’t Random.
Commodity producers have been put into a vice; their input costs have soared while most commodity prices have been under significant price pressure due to oversupply and slack demand. The Timing of the Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway Deal wasn’t Random.
Futures Chart Analysis
DX ~ Monthly
EHG ~ Weekly
Bloomberg Commodity Index ~ Monthly
Feeder Cattle
DeCarley Press
10/09/2025
Occidental (OXY) Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Continues to Fall
We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden. We don't think the timing of Occidental Petroleum's sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway was random. We talked about this on the Schwab Network's Trading360 yesterday with Marley Kayden.
10/09/2025
Carley Garner joined Trading360 on Schwab to discuss the Occidental Petroleum deal with Berkshire Hathway
Occidental Sells OxyChem as Crude Oil Slumps
10/08/2025
Scott Shellady and Carley spoke about gold on Cow Guy Close today.
In 2020, investors chose Treasury bonds as their risk-off asset of choice. They couldn't get enough Treasuries, which were yielding less than a percent, in their portfolios. Mass accumulation of Treasuries to hedge economic and political uncertainty was the most popular narrative and trade. However, five years later, it proved to be the worst trade imaginable. In fact, although they intended to hedge risk, they were actually running into a burning house. We suspect the 2025 gold rally will eventually suffer the same fate. Here are the major takeaways, with a link to the video below -
09/08/2025
What is next for ags with the WASDE on tap?
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP
08/08/2025
Gold tariffs trigger overnight rally
Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show. Gold tariffs and a failed rally. We've seen this movie before (copper). Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and I discussed this today on the show.
Live Economic News/Data
11/12/2025
SoftBank shares plunge as much as 10% after selling Nvidia stake
SoftBank Group shares fell as much as 10% Wednesday after the conglomerate revealed it had offloaded its entire stake in U.S. chip giant Nvidia.
11/12/2025
Google sues cybercriminal group behind E-ZPass, USPS text phishing scams
Google filed a lawsuit against a cybercriminal group largely based in China that is behind a massive text message phishing operation, or "smishing."
11/12/2025
Swiss sneaker company On raises guidance again, says it won't offer Black Friday deal
Swiss sportswear company On blew past Wall Street's expectations as it pledged to offer no discounts during the holiday shopping season.
Notices
09/18/2025
Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones tomorrow.
Due to circumstances beyond our control (rescheduled flights at the discretion of the airline), we will not be in the office tomorrow.
08/29/2025
Labor Day Holiday Schedule
We will be out of the office on Monday, September 1st, in observance of Labor Day. Some markets open on Sunday night (as usual) and trade an abbreviated session (close early) on Monday, but trading volume is expected to be extremely thin. If you need assistance, the 24-hour StoneX desk is available at 312-706-7272.
08/27/2025
Don't trade futures or options, but want access to the DeCarley Perspective?
We strive to provide straight-to-the-point and honest market commentary, even if our opinions ruffle feathers. The DeCarley Perspective, written by commodity market analyst Carley Garner, offers a refreshing and comprehensive perspective on the financial and commodity markets. For decades, the DeCarley Perspective, a commodity trading newsletter written by Carley Garner, was available exclusively to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients and trial subscribers. However, many of our followers don't necessarily trade futures and options or live in a part of the world that prevents them from doing business with us, such as Canada. Thus, we are introducing a subscription-based model to access our market analysis, chart work, insights, and even trading recommendations.
Platform Tutorial Videos
Posted on 11/22/2024
Introduction to the Stonex futures and options platform, based on CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
In this video, Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading talks about setting up custom pages in CQG Desktop.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Futures, options, and position stats can be sent via push notifications or email.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
The Stonex futures & options platform, based on CQG Desktop, offers simple/intuitive charting.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
There are many ways to enter futures/options trades into the Stonex commodity platform; here's one.
DeCarley Trading
Posted on 11/22/2024
Viewing working, filled, canceled and parked orders in the Stonex commodity platform based on CQG.
DeCarley Trading
Futures Market News
Posted on 11/11/2025
Silver’s Surge and Slide: Gold Link, AI Demand, Risks
CME Group
Posted on 11/11/2025
10-Year Treasury Note futures moved higher on labor market sentiment. 11/11/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/11/2025
Grain futures were mixed as traders await Friday's WASDE report. 11/11/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/11/2025
Live Cattle futures declined as volatility dropped. 11/11/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/10/2025
Euro futures closed near unchanged; volatility rose. 11/10/25
CME Group
Posted on 11/10/2025
Live Cattle futures pushed to close cash gap. 11/10/25
CME Group
