DeCarley Trading Commodity Broker

03/10/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...The art of chaos.

I hesitate to write or say anything about the oil market because it has made a fool of me, and of others who are smarter than I am. March and April have always been a hotbed of volatility in the energy markets. Some of the most notable oil moves were born during these two months. Notable examples include the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, the 2016 commodity bear market that ended in capitulation in oil, well into the $20.00s, the COVID fallout of 2020, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which spiked oil to $130.00 per barrel. The art of chaos.

03/10/2026

Strategy Idea...Bullish 10-Year Note Plays

03/05/2026

Strategy Idea...Bull Call Spreads in Wheat

Unlike corn, which has held its downtrend line, the wheat market is trying to break out. The initial penetration of the downtrend line pushed prices to $6.00, after which the market fell back to retest it (previously resistance, now acting as support). If wheat continues to hold this line, we should see prices take another shot at the low $6.00s. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

03/03/2026

Strategy Idea...Sell corn futures with insurance.

The US hasn't bombed China, but they have attacked the country indirectly by removing its sources of cheap, sanctioned oil. This forces China to use petrodollars to purchase at least some of its energy needs. In turn, it puts upward pressure on the dollar, and, in theory, this would work against most commodity prices. With that said, we have upset our largest grain buyer, and corn futures are at their downtrend line. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

02/27/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy more crude oil puts.

As always, everyone wants to buy crude oil calls amid Middle East uncertainty. As always, everyone wants to buy crude oil calls amid Middle East uncertainty.

02/09/2026

Strategy Idea...Buy July Sugar Strangles.

The sugar market has retraced 50% from its 2023 high and could continue lower toward a multi-decade trendline near 11.00 cents per pound. Yet, with the RSI oversold, the tides could turn at any time. Buying both a call and a put covers both bases. *ALL RIGHTS RESERVED! REDISTRIBUTION OF THIS PUBLICATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

03/12/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...We don’t know what will happen next, but we have history as a guide.

We will keep this newsletter short and sweet. Just in case you haven’t noticed, nobody knows what will happen in the markets or on the political stage. Everyone is guessing. However, we can at least use history as our guide. Oil shocks have historically been associated with stock market weakness. We don’t know what will happen next, but we have history as a guide.

03/04/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...On the way down, $75.00 oil was too cheap; on the way up, it is a “shock.”

Perception of price is extremely relative. Just 18 months ago, as oil was slicing through $75.00 on its way to $55.00, the bulls on X and television were convinced that oil couldn’t drop below the cost of production, which was assumed to be near $70.00. On the way down, $75.00 oil was too cheap; on the way up, it is a “shock.”

02/24/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Crude Reality: The Rally is Artificially Manufactured by the Iran Controversy.

The oil market is on an upswing, emboldening the dip buyers to believe the bottom is in. They might be right, but the odds are against them. We’ve seen at least six rallies of this nature since oil peaked in March 2022, each accompanied by a threat of supply disruption. However, each of them was also accompanied by the reality that few, if any, barrels of oil were taken off the market. Crude Reality: The Rally is Artificially Manufactured by the Iran Controversy

02/12/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Treasuries have suffered the largest and longest bear market in history. Is it over?

In March 2020, the world was seemingly coming to an end. The world faced the risk of a perceived population-draining pandemic, and governments were closing entire economies in hopes of stopping the spread of COVID-19. In hindsight, this was probably an overreaction, but at the time, there were more questions than answers. Treasuries have suffered the largest and longest bear market in history. Is it over?

02/06/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Will volatility in metals and cryptocurrencies spill over into stock indices?

It has been my experience that when a few markets begin to break, volatility bleeds into others Will volatility in metals and cryptocurrencies spill over into stock indices?

02/05/2026

The DeCarley Perspective...Did the Warsh appointment debase the debasement trade?

I assume most readers are familiar with the so-called “debasement trade,” but as a primer, we will quickly define it. The debasement trade is a popular narrative circling investment circles, media outlets, and social media boards, encouraging market participants to shift capital away from fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar, sovereign bonds (mostly US Treasuries), and other assets tied to government promises. Did the Warsh appointment debase the debasement trade?

03/12/2026

Birdseye view of crude oil, bitcoin, gold, stocks, and US Treasuries.

This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next. This week, we hosted a webinar discussing the charts and fundamentals of popular trading markets. War markets are unpredictable, but we have history as a guide. We viewed intermarket correlations and monthly and weekly charts to guess what might come next.

03/12/2026

The futures markets have a commodity ETF problem.

Commodity markets are volatile enough; the last thing we need is synthetic financial products making things more complicated. Commodity ETFs such as USO pool investor money to purchase futures contracts. However, a derivative of a derivative probably isn't a good idea. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

02/26/2026

Scott and Carley discuss crude oil and the World Uncertainty Index

We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out. We filmed a segment of Cow Guy Close from the floor of the MoneyShow yesterday, and it was a lot of fun! Scott Shellady - The Cow Guy and Carley Garner discussed the World Uncertainty Index and Crude oil :) Check it out.

01/15/2026

What's going on in silver?

I’m rarely left speechless by markets. I’ve been doing this for a few decades, I’ve seen some things, including the financial crisis, the flash crash, the COVID meltdown, and more, but what is happening in metals leaves me with few words. Mostly because there wasn’t an obvious single event or catalyst, it has been a slow-burn of compounding of narratives that eventually snowballed into an irrational herd mentality. CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

12/19/2025

Is the government helping or hurting farmers and markets?

Today on @CowGuyClose, I spoke with @ScottTheCowGuy about USDA Farmer Bridge Payments and the consequences of government involvement in markets and economic cycles. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO CLIP

03/14/2026

Trump says U.S. 'obliterated' military targets on Iran's Kharg Island but didn't 'wipe out' oil infrastructure

President Trump said in a Truth Social post that he directed U.S. Central Command to execute a bombing raid that "obliterated" military targets on Kharg Island.

03/13/2026

DOJ to appeal judge's decision to block Fed subpoenas in Powell criminal probe

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is purportedly being investigated for comments he made about the pricey renovations of the Fed's headquarters.

03/13/2026

Analysis: The U.S. is running out of ways to get oil prices down. It is up to the military.

Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz can't be fixed by releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves.

02/12/2026

IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING OUR AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK

Carley has been offered an opportunity she couldn't refuse. She will be hosting the Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV from their studio in Nashville on Friday, February 20th, and Monday, February 23rd. Scott needs a break! Zaner's trade desk will be covering DeCarley phones for a few days in late February.

02/12/2026

Presidents' Day Holiday Trading Schedule 2026

For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16th, in observance of Presidents' Day. For all intents and purposes, the U.S. futures Markets will be closed on Monday, February 16th, in observance of Presidents' Day.