Cocoa Bulls Reclaim Control as Weather Threats and Short Covering Drive a Sharp Reversal

Cocoa futures have staged a powerful recovery after a brutal year long decline, with prices climbing from a low near 3700 to above 5200 as confirmed El Niño conditions, heavy West African flooding, and a historic unwind of bearish fund positioning combined to fuel one of the sharpest rallies in recent months. The market has cleanly broken above the 4500 daily level 3 resistance, shifting the structural bias from bearish to constructive, though traders are now watching whether buyers can hold this level on any pullback. This article examines the fundamental drivers behind the move, reviews the price action that brought cocoa from its yearly lows to current levels, and outlines bullish, neutral, and bearish scenarios for the weeks ahead, alongside a combined technical and macro outlook.Trader pointing at stock market graphs by DragonImages via Adobe Stock