When a Wheat Spread Moves Against Seasonality: Why I Held the Trade

What should you do when a seasonal commodity spread moves against expectations? Using an open May–July 2027 Hard Red Winter Wheat trade, this article explains why we entered the position, why we held through an adverse move, and how the spread later turned lower. Before-and-after charts illustrate how historical seasonality, forward-curve conditions, and ongoing risk assessment inform the decision to hold or exit.Harvestor at work by Aleksandr Rybalko via Shutterstock