The Biggest Surprise From 15 Years of Seasonal Spread Research: Direction Matters

Written on 05/23/2026
Darren Carlat

Most traders think of spread direction as simply bullish or bearish. But long-term research revealed something much more important. BUY and SELL structures frequently produce entirely different win rates, drawdowns, and volatility profiles. This article breaks down why direction changes the entire distribution of a trade.Natural gas burnoff refinery by Leonid Eremeychuk via iStock
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