Crude Oil at a Pivotal Range as Macro Winds Shift

Crude oil has transitioned from a largely rotational 2025 into a more constructive 2026, with price holding above the 2026 yearly VWAP after spending much of last year chopping around prior value. The fourth quarter of 2025 was pressured by softer demand data and resilient supply, keeping the market below the 2025 yearly VWAP. More recently, escalating unrest in Iran and elevated regional tensions introduced a geopolitical risk premium that fueled a rally above 74.00. In the past week, however, headlines pointing to renewed diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran have cooled immediate escalation fears, leading to overlapping daily ranges and short-term balance between 74 and 80.Trader at office - by Viktoriia Hnatiuk via Shutterstock