I'd be lying if I said it wasn't disappointing to see oil squeeze higher this week, even as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz approaches pre-war levels, but it isn't over yet. Obviously, the goalpost has shifted from how many barrels are coming out of the Gulf to how much more expensive it has become due to security risks and how annoying the Houthi aggression can be. The risk premium is estimated to be between $13 to $30 per barrel. However, there is also a margin-call and short-squeeze component. The same traders who are long tech stocks and long gold appear to have also been short oil, and we have seen some of that trade unwind. Margin calls don't care about fundamentals, charts, or seasona

I'd be lying if I said it wasn't disappointing to see oil squeeze higher this week, even as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz approaches pre-war levels, but it isn't over yet. Obviously, the goalpost has shifted from how many barrels are coming out of the Gulf to how much more expensive it has become due to security risks and how annoying the Houthi aggression can be. The risk premium is estimated to be between $13 to $30 per barrel. However, there is also a margin-call and short-squeeze component. The same traders who are long tech stocks and long gold appear to have also been short oil, and we have seen some of that trade unwind. Margin calls don't care about fundamentals, charts, or seasonality. Oil often peaks this time of year, the dollar is higher than most expected, and Saudi oil output is increasing despite the violence.

— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Oct 29, 2026