The 2018 midterm market and the 2026 midterm market have an uncomfortable amount in common, and it starts with interest rates.
— DeCarleyTrading.com (@carleygarner) Nov 6, 2026
In 2018, September and December rate hikes were blamed for a nearly 25% slide (about 3,000 to 2,300). We’ve already had the September 2026 hike, and FedWatch puts December at about 75%. A similar haircut from the highs puts the E-mini S&P near 6,000.
The easy money of the Trump rally is probably already made. If 2018 is our guide, it gets much harder from here.
The 2018 midterm market and the 2026 midterm market have an uncomfortable amount in common, and it starts with interest rates. In 2018, September and December rate hikes were blamed for a nearly 25% slide (about 3,000 to 2,300). We’ve already had the September 2026 hike, and FedWatch puts December at about 75%. A similar haircut from the highs puts the E-mini S&P near 6,000. The easy money of the Trump rally is probably already made. If 2018 is our guide, it gets much harder from here.
Written on 11/06/2026